Stocks Pop On Trade-War Ceasefire Hopes, Yield Curve Crushed As 'Policy Error' Looms

Just seemed appropriate...

China stocks continued their rout overnight...


European Auto stocks soared today on the heels of an unsubstantiated report on zero tariffs from a German paper...


US Equities also gained on the day - on hopes that trade war talks with Europe are progressing...

Small Caps went vertical in the last few minutes...


And all major US equity indices are up on the week...


The Dow miraculously managed to close 1 point above its 200DMA... ending a a 7 day streak below it...


Another tough day for Tesla as Elon Musk's warnings to the 'bears' are losing right now...


The Mega-Tech stocks rebounded on the day...


Treasury yields were very mixed today with everything but 30Y higher in yield on the day (and dramatically flattening)...


2s30s tumbles below 40bps for the first time since July was the biggest absolute flattening in the curve in two months...


2018 has been a one-way street of collapse in the yield curve...


The Dollar Index fell for 3rd day in a row (5th of last 6) to 3-week lows - and closed at the spike high of the June Fed day...


The offshore Yuan is starting to drift lower after the PBOC intervention...


Cryptos slid on the day but remain higher on the week...



PMs were flat as the dollar slipped lower but Copper and Crude tumbled...


Copper was clubbed like a baby seal today - plunging by the most since December to the lowest in 12-months...

With copper down 15 of the last 18 days, we have still yet to hear any 'commentator' note that Dr.Copper is signaling anything but a global synchronous recovery.


Some relatively high volatility in the energy complex today but WTI/RBOB ended the day below the close from Tuesday...


Finally, there is only one question that really matters...


D.r. Funk AynRandObjectivist Thu, 07/05/2018 - 16:15 Permalink

The indexes have programming. (subroutines, if-then, for-next, active monitoring)

It's not a -market- in the sense that everyone is used to referring, and as you just did.

A manipulated environment, is not, a market.

This is not a rebuke, Just a reminder what some of us knew/established a few yrs+ ago.

The indexes (djia&naz for all intents) have central/master level programming, control, and commandeering, over them. [evidenced in tertiary components, of course, as well, vix, usdjpy. etc.]

In reply to by AynRandObjectivist

AynRandObjectivist Thu, 07/05/2018 - 16:08 Permalink

This market strikes me as being very similar to Tesla. How long can the forces be confused to think there is actually light at the end of the tunnel instead of a big ass train? 

Snaffew Thu, 07/05/2018 - 16:11 Permalink

all setting up for a gap open of S&P 2750 ++.  The low volume trading week is the perfect time for PPT to spike the markets again.  It's the fucking game---and it's ridiculous.  For some crazy reason, roulette has better odds than the markets and that has O and 00 working against you.  Technical analysis died 10 years ago.

Traderone Snaffew Thu, 07/05/2018 - 16:20 Permalink

When it comes to U.S equity Indices friend then yes, T.A. is utterly useless. FX guys use it to give themselves a framework from which to lean against for stops targets etc. 

Learn to read order flow if you want to trade the ES. Google all you can about it then immerse yourself into learning how to use it. Learn to see things from the markets perspective and thus follow the P.A.. DO NOT try to impose your opinion onto the market, that is a losers game. 

In reply to by Snaffew

D.r. Funk Snaffew Thu, 07/05/2018 - 16:22 Permalink

It's still in the context of endgame.

Endgame was the start of september to Jan 26. A clear, glaring, vertical final move, which had no function other than a final move whenever-it-ended, which was Jan 26.

I said, if that holds true, then everything following that first week of Feb would be tricks-bullshit-and-antics. That has continued to be the case on the multiple overtures of surging.

It is still the final countdown, following endgame,

And they know it. Meaning, they know we/some of us know it.

See my finger fedfuck or proxy controllers

In reply to by Snaffew

Aaronson.Jones… Thu, 07/05/2018 - 16:29 Permalink

Nasdaq & SP500 are exactly where they should be going into tomorrow; bang on the 20EMA. ES always moves back to base ahead of the big news so the chances of a gain today were heightened for sure. Save for some wild China or tariff related news, I wouldn't expect any moving away from here till around number time after which maybe we'll get some clarity as to what the market actually wants to do.

mkkby Snaffew Thu, 07/05/2018 - 19:38 Permalink

I hear your frustration...  But 2/3 of the time the markets go up.  Isn't that a lot better than roulette odds?  Seems to me you could just make a bullish trade every day and do okay.  Add some smarts and do even better.

The pin bars can be exploited too.  You use a very small trade size because you will be wrong sometimes.  You did study trade sizing and money management before putting your cash on the line didn't you?

In reply to by Snaffew

Albertarocks Thu, 07/05/2018 - 16:48 Permalink

Read the title of this article you are currently reading.  Here... I'll even post it for ya:

"Stocks Pop On Trade-War Ceasefire Hopes"

Now read the title of an article published here on ZH one hour ago:

"Stocks Sink As Hawkish Fed Minutes Send Yield Curve Even Flatter"

Can you please make up your god damned minds or at least knock it off with the sensationalistic headlines where you incessantly try to give the impression that you know why stocks popped or tanked?  Because you don't.

Thank you.

D.r. Funk Albertarocks Thu, 07/05/2018 - 17:09 Permalink

You're not totally incorrect, but the language became appropriately hyperbolic on the intraday, the intraday Bullshit, with the acceleration of targeted-short-squeezes, overzealous machine panic-buying, downdrift negation-reversal, anomalous unassociable surges in the 1st half hr or europe close or final half hr or final 5 mins. Zh is not sensationalistic or a trading guide, it's a tracking of the colossal hookups of the indexes that followed lehman or into qe, and the agendas and machinations apparent in a ridiculous manner

In reply to by Albertarocks

tunetopper Thu, 07/05/2018 - 17:07 Permalink


No Historical Correlation:

only a flat yield curve after 10 years of zero -1.5% interest rates artificially induced/reduced in a world that has followed the US down this same path is corollary.... problem--- its never happened in modern history.  So- it has no historical equivalency.  Now, whatcha gonna do?

D.r. Funk awarebulldog Thu, 07/05/2018 - 18:22 Permalink

I'll go hypothetical for you.

And really, it's organic? It could be argued that it's organic? Looking at chart after chart, such a sustainable midsummer lowimpetus overzealous overbought anomalously-ravenous&overly-uniform index movement? Yeah you're correct "keeps going up and up" but that implies an authentic or organic propulsion. "It's being moved&pushed up and up" or "they just keep juicing it" or "it's just more and more apparent the pumping" would be more accurate

it's not nitpicking it's a reasonably important distinction in these halls

In reply to by awarebulldog