Grand Bargain Taking Shape? U.S. To Pull Out Of Al-Tanf

Authored by Tom Luongo,

If you’ve followed my work for the past year you know that my default position has been there is a potential Grand Bargain for Peace in the Middle East.  From the moment President Trump first berated the Arabs in Riyidh last year on his first foreign trip for supporting terrorism, I’ve felt that the final outcome over Syria would culminate in such an agreement.

Elijah Magnier is reporting now that the framework for a U.S. pull out of its position at Al-Tanf near where the borders of Jordan, Syria and Iraq come together has pretty much been agreed upon in advance of Trump and Vladimir Putin’s Summit on July 16th in Helsinki.

Russian advisors visiting the Syrian capital Damascus are confident that the US forces will pull out of al-Tanf and will also aim to completely withdraw from north of Syria (al-Hasaka and Deir-Ezzour) in the next six months.

According to top decision makers based in Damascus, the US President Donald Trump is pushing his administration to approve an already prepared total withdrawal plan. Despite Trump’s limited knowledge of foreign policy and being unaware of the consequences of his decisions in the international arena, however, he found no convincing elements – said the sources, who asked to remain anonymous – in the presentation by his administration where US forces could benefit from the continuation of their presence in such a hostile environment and without suffering hits in the future. Trump’s biggest fear to see the US special forces deployed in the north of Syria and in Iraq returning to the country “in plastic bags”. He would certainly find it hard to offer any explanation for the US occupation of the Levant after the defeat of ISIS (the “Islamic State” group) or what remained of it in Syria and Iraq.

What Putin and Trump will work out is whether they can trust each other enough to allow each to do the job they need to do to make this work.  By the time the summit happens, the SAA Tiger forces should have taken back most of the province of Dara’a up to the Golan Heights, effectively restoring the 2011 border.

The Grand Bargain I’ve been proposing has been, simply put, the U.S. and the Russians acting as guarantors of the local actors behavior.  It requires Russia to remain in Syria indefinitely, supporting the Assad government’s rebuilding of the country.

And it requires the U.S. to remove its military presence, by declaring victory over ISIS and leaving.  But, in its wake leave an explicit guarantee of Israel’s and Saudi Arabia’s defense in the case of future Iranian adventurism.

The Russians act as a buffer to break up the Shia Crescent concerns of the Israelis, Turkey goes home, the Kurds negotiate a settlement with Damascus and the Saudis get to live a few more years before their domestic troubles overwhelm them.

I said on May 24th of last year just after Trump’s Speech in Riyadh:

Russia’s alliance with Iran and China is unbreakable at this point. They have designs to build a trade empire across Asia that the world hasn’t seen in centuries. Putin has the means and the respect by all parties on both sides to remove Iran’s troops from Syria and get Hezbollah to stand down if the right deal is signed.

He has the military might to make it all stick.

The Turks and President Erdogan have over-played their hand and have been abandoned by both Putin and Trump. He will behave himself or be removed from power. His days of playing both sides against each other are over…

… He [Putin] and Trump are in opposite domestic positions. Trump needs this win to shut up the loony left. Putin doesn’t, even though he’s facing a re-election campaign in 2018.

So, setting the table for Trump to come in, statesmanlike, and broker an historic peace deal is exactly his style.

We’re not there yet, but the pieces are in place. As long as Trump doesn’t make another mistake like the al-Shairat bombing and keeps a lid on his military commanders he will eventually gain Putin’s trust.

This story has not been without it twists and turns.  There have been the multitude of false flags, provocations and prevarications from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to try and scuttle this deal.

It even survived another colossal Trump mistake in responding to another false flag attack on civilians with chemical weapons this year.

But, over the course of it all, Trump has held firm while Putin made deals with everyone to give them a little of what they want.  The Saudis are going to get slightly more market share in oil to help with their fiscal situation.  Israel will likely get to keep the Golan Heights in perpetuity, much to the pleasure of the board of Genie Energy.

Trump and Netanyahu still wants regime change in Iran as part of this deal, but Trump is in no real position to get that concession from Putin.  That is exactly what the U.S. media is trying to position him to demand.

Bloomberg is trying to make this deal sound like Putin is betraying Iran by making deals over oil production caps, while offering up Iran’s withdrawal from Syria as some ‘big win.’

For Iran, the overriding goal is to maintain its influence inside Syria and keep supply lines open, said Ehud Yaari, an Israel-based fellow at the Washington Institute.

“Russia has an interest to bleed Iran in Syria, to weaken Iran but not collapse Iran because it may lose the Assad regime, which is its major card,” said Sami Nader, head of the Levant Institute for Strategic Studies in Beirut. “They want Iran in check and under control.”

This is pure Netanyahu-esque spin.  Russia doesn’t have the goal of bleeding out Iran in Syria, Israel does.  And every one of Bibi’s little lies have been calculated to convince Trump to extend the U.S. presence there indefinitely for his reasons.

If Magnier is correct then this strategy has failed completely.

Assad isn’t going anywhere and Iran has no desire to stay in Syria once the U.S. leaves.  As the Western media keeps trying to tell us, there’s a revolution happening back home.  IRGC forces are needed there, which is why Netanyahu is abjecting against any deal with Putin before said overthrow of the mullahs takes place.

Too bad Putin and Trump have both put the kibosh on that.  Trump needs another major geopolitical win to crush his deep state and Democratic (I repeat myself) opposition in the mid-terms while also changing the mandate for NATO.

Russia has Iran’s back when it comes to sanctions, fuel marketing, oil exports and the like.  Iran is key to the success of uniting Central Asia under China’s One Belt, One Road initiative, which includes making India and Turkey partners in the project.

For Putin to get a restructuring of NATO, border security in Syria, draw-down of U.S. troops there and probably in Afghanistan as well and potentially recognition of Crimea, there has to be something else on the table.

The bargaining chips are Jerusalem, Yemen, Nordstream 2 and Iranian regime change.  Nordstream 2 and regime change are off the table.  The big question is are the other two within their purview to negotiate.

Doubtful, certainly at this point in time.

For now, the Grand Bargain is taking shape.  Phase one is the hardest part, the trust part. Since U.S. and Russian military commanders have been in communication for nearly three years coordinating around each other it seems plausible the trust is there.

The work’s been done.  Now, just sing the deals and remove/reposition the troops.  It is the next phase that is murkier.  Trump wants explicit guarantees from Putin that Iran won’t develop a nuclear weapon.

For him to get that guarantee means removing the regime-change threat from the table as well as allowing Tehran to develop trade relations without the U.S. stifling them.  This is why I think the most likely casualty in this situation will be Yemen.  Iran will have to withdraw support from the Houthi rebels like Trump will remove the U.S. troops from Syria.

As one of my readers said to me privately, the other day, this is beginning to feel like 1945, the only difference is that Trump and Putin aren’t meeting at Yalta, to remake the world.

*  *  *

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Comments

LetThemEatRand Mon, 07/09/2018 - 00:15 Permalink

Wait, the goal now is the US leaving a particular small part of Syria?  I could have sworn Trump said he was going to leave Syria. The whole country.  That we don't own or have any national security interests in.

Billy the Poet LetThemEatRand Mon, 07/09/2018 - 00:25 Permalink

The Syrians and Russians have a different take on the President's actions.

 

According to top decision makers based in Damascus, the US President Donald Trump is pushing his administration to approve an already prepared total withdrawal plan.

 

Russian advisors visiting the Syrian capital Damascus are confident that the US forces will pull out of al-Tanf and will also aim to completely withdraw from north of Syria (al-Hasaka and Deir-Ezzour) in the next six months.

In reply to by LetThemEatRand

LetThemEatRand Billy the Poet Mon, 07/09/2018 - 00:30 Permalink

I read that part too.  Where does that say the US troops will totally withdraw from the nation of Syria (as opposed to the parts of Syria identified in the earlier sentences you don't quote).  Do you even know where the US troops are in Syria?  Do you not find it obvious that the article goes out of its way to identify a particular part of Syria from which US troops may be withdrawn, or do you think the author had a stroke?

In reply to by Billy the Poet

Billy the Poet LetThemEatRand Mon, 07/09/2018 - 00:31 Permalink

According to top decision makers based in Damascus, the US President Donald Trump is pushing his administration to approve an already prepared total withdrawal plan.

 

Russian advisors visiting the Syrian capital Damascus are confident that the US forces will pull out of al-Tanf and will also aim to completely withdraw from north of Syria (al-Hasaka and Deir-Ezzour) in the next six months.

 

Trump’s biggest fear to see the US special forces deployed in the north of Syria and in Iraq returning to the country “in plastic bags”. He would certainly find it hard to offer any explanation for the US occupation of the Levant after the defeat of ISIS (the “Islamic State” group) or what remained of it in Syria and Iraq.

In reply to by LetThemEatRand

Billy the Poet LetThemEatRand Mon, 07/09/2018 - 00:35 Permalink

I'm going on record saying that your memory is as bad as your attitude.

 

 

 

Sun, 06/24/2018

 

 

In Surprising Turn, US Sends "Farewell Message" To Proxies In Syria's South

 

New message from U.S. Embassy Amman to southern rebels: Make your own decision, but “you should not base your decision on the assumption or expectation of military intervention by us.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-24/surprising-turn-us-sends-fare…

 

 

In reply to by LetThemEatRand

LetThemEatRand Billy the Poet Mon, 07/09/2018 - 00:36 Permalink

Is that a yes or a no to my question?  Just say it.

A.  Trump is proposing withdrawing from part of Syria (what I believe the article is saying, even though it's trying really hard to imply falsely what you are saying); B.  Trump is proposing total withdrawal of all US troops from Syria.

A or B.

EDIT:  I just gave you a downvote for the pussy edit/attempt to deflect.

In reply to by Billy the Poet

the artist Billy the Poet Mon, 07/09/2018 - 03:00 Permalink

Bam! You were right. I was also correct in saying that Syria will never fall. It would amount to a check mate situation for Russia and ultimately buttons being pressed. To me it was obvious that it was Not Gonna Happen. 

This also represents a step toward what I and others have been saying/noting that the US is undergoing a great pivot away from China and Saudi Arabia and toward Russia and Iran. We are trading the Sunni allies for the Shia which have been pro-west in the past and who are much more reasonable people. 

The Grand Chessboard is getting carved up and China aint invited. They are useless eaters and expendable. What follows is a 20 year plan to contain the Dragon. 

In reply to by Billy the Poet

HowdyDoody keep the basta… Mon, 07/09/2018 - 04:03 Permalink

The Grand Bargain:

Once the SAA and allies, including Russian advisors finish Deraa, they will move on to al Tanf. If your aviation attacks Russian forces they will be shot down. Even if you stay at al Tanf (holding the border crossing of Syria-Iraq road), we will build another to bypass it. Declare Victory and Go Home or Go Home in caskets. Your choice.

 

 

In reply to by keep the basta…

Meyer Blinder the artist Mon, 07/09/2018 - 08:20 Permalink

"pivot away from China and Saudi Arabia"

The political displays thus far is indicative of a typical "Art Of The Deal". Russia may believe the SA kingdoms free shitters are perhaps only a decade away from burning the Sultans tent. Yemen's role is an expendable agitator shithole, ripe for hypersonic weapons testing to display the bosses capability. 

In reply to by the artist

el buitre the artist Mon, 07/09/2018 - 09:17 Permalink

As in that famous quote by Ben Franklin, Russia and China both know that they will either hang together or be hung separately by the Rothschild Cabal.  Together they are formidable.  Russia with its raw resources and the most advanced military technology in the world, and China as the manufacturing center of the planet.  The Neocons would do anything to drive a wedge between them, but it aint gonna happen.  And as the Cabal gets more desperate, the Russia-China axis will use these attempts to their advantage.

In reply to by the artist

the artist el buitre Mon, 07/09/2018 - 10:22 Permalink

I agree with your premise but there are some factors that will prevent China from attaining the future they desire. The thermodynamics just don't pan out. There are not enough resources on the planet for China to continue its economic expansion. 7% annual growth means a doubling of their economy every 10 years. Break it down commodity by commodity...it just simply will not take place. It will not happen for US and it won't happen for them. There are fundamental differences between us that will allow US to move forward and prevent China from doing the same. Manufacturing can be moved to any number of places whereas consumption will not. 

In reply to by el buitre

BobEore Billy the Poet Mon, 07/09/2018 - 04:06 Permalink

Wrong again sillybilly. You're batting .000 now Sluggo, in a race with Tom Luongo for the bottom. 

 

 It's the opinions of the Syrians, Russians and the President

which will determine events? Syria is demolished as a integral polity, divided for a long time to come into factional warlord fiefs and religious sectarian enclaves, while the north has reached the point of de facto autonomy, where not under the control of neo-ottoman adventurists. "Events"... as in what really happens behind the scene of media phony narratives and state-directed false flags, are the province of the kabbalist-talmudist master planners... 

that cabal which, having completed its destruction in sequence of the Libya, Iraqi, Syria states, turned Albania, Turkey, and the Ukraine into mafiya fiefdoms, taken over Saudistan, threatened and cajoled both "superpowers" into compliance with its long term agenda (of return to Babylon, the heartland of talmudic terror & the debt/interest/usury scam which feeds it), corroded both Europe and the Isles into cowering accomplices, 

now dictates the terms of a "peace"(Pax Sionista)which short months ago MORONS were proclaiming to be breaking out all over, and which Tom here still truculently fantasizes about on the internet, even after seeing each and every one of his 'predictions' of this year past turn hollow like his pumpkin head. And you're a fine court jester for the mix ol pal! When wrong, double down on the bullshit. 

We got crow bakin on the barbie, enuff to feed the whole lot o yas... fo'ever. C'mon down, Tommy, Elijah and the gang! Your fantasy world of Russkies savin the world from Sionists and other bad guys is a crashin and a burnin as we speak. 

It's the opinions of kabbalist-talmudists - long predicted to be the final victors in the long war against truth in media which solely matter, anymore. Thanks to the collective efforts of complicit scribes, wooly headed fanbouys, and a rogues' gallery of backroom playas operting the levers of the disinfo war machine, nobody paid the slightest attention to the Syrian Endgame, till it was all over. 

Hurrah they croaked, before crawling away from the heaping helpings of crow that greet the appearance of every one of these sad sack 'experts' created and pushed upon us by the moneypowers media machine. 

In reply to by Billy the Poet

any_mouse BobEore Mon, 07/09/2018 - 09:48 Permalink

And the Zionist parasites will pump the Golan Heights dry of oil within the border of Syria.

A "Grand Bargain" where Ersatz Israel continues its theft.

Puppets of the Parasites parlaying as if they matter.

No entity held accountable for the destruction of Syria.

For the benefit of Mr. Kike, there will be a show they will like.

In reply to by BobEore

Free This LetThemEatRand Mon, 07/09/2018 - 14:59 Permalink

Global Communism - when you boil all down to a thick gooey syrup! There are globalists in and around or govt and corporations, who would love nothing more than to enslave you!

Never give up your guns, your rights are important, especially your right to vote - throw that away and you have no say.

These globalists WANT us to fight each other, so they can take us over. That is why I rail against communists - even the deluded ones, I want them to THINK TWICE about taking to the streets with this pussy hat, open boarders, free shit revolution!

The masons were a good force at one time, until they were taken over by the likes of Albert Pike and the Illuminatti...now the rank and file have no idea how fucking evil that body is, doubt me all you want. I have been to hell and back following that outfit. Look no further than Aleister Crowley for their sickness. "Who would help a widow's son", my ass!

I will stand alone, if I fucking have to, shit!

Sic Semper Tyrannis

Trump and Putin meeting is a damn GOOD thing, they will look into each other's eyes and know their soul. Won't be overnight, but things will progress from there. I'd love to see us and Russia, leave the ME, completely. Let the ragheads murder themselves over there!

In reply to by LetThemEatRand

Free This LetThemEatRand Mon, 07/09/2018 - 15:09 Permalink

"According to top decision makers based in Damascus, the US President Donald Trump is pushing his administration to approve an already prepared total withdrawal plan."

If I may interject, I believe it will be in stages, culminating in a total withdrawal. Trump will get us out, as we have no fucking business there now anyway.

If the US wanted to we could destroy the whole place, so could Russia, point being, what good would it do to bring on the apocalypse, neither side wins in that scenario!

Sic Semper Tyrannis

In reply to by LetThemEatRand

Conscious Reviver Billy the Poet Mon, 07/09/2018 - 00:50 Permalink

B the P, LTER is being pendantic. I think that's the word.

Just tell him that, Yes - leaving Al-Tanf, Hasaqa and Dier Ezzor, means Yankee goes home.

Some strange things about this almost good article.

o US troops are already coming home in body bags. Even CNN says so. https://edition.cnn.com/2018/03/31/politics/syria-us-uk-troops-killed-i…

o This is very clownish - "...in the case of future Iranian adventurism." Iran has been under covert attack by the Zinos for decades. Their scientists assassinated. Their cyber systems attacked. Their trade cut off, but they are being adventurous by supporting their ally in Syria?

In reply to by Billy the Poet

Conscious Reviver Conscious Reviver Mon, 07/09/2018 - 01:21 Permalink

Some more odd material from the article -

o "Iran will have to withdraw support from the Houthi rebels like Trump will remove the U.S. troops from Syria." Iran is not involved in Yemen. Other than rabid Zino-dogs, like Niki Haley and Bibi holding up shards from a SCUD, purchased years ago by the Yemeni government from the Norks, not Iran, what evidence is there that Iran is aiding the Houthis? Ans: None.

o "The Turks and President Erdogan have over-played their hand and have been abandoned by both Putin and Trump." That's not what happened. The Turks switched sides. The new Russian/Turk relationship is working out fine for both parties.

In reply to by Conscious Reviver

Billy the Poet Conscious Reviver Mon, 07/09/2018 - 01:25 Permalink

Al-Tanf is important because it is a crossroad between Syria, Jordan and Iraq.  Flow of people and equipment across national boundaries is of great importance because the so called Syrian civil war is really a proxy war with international participation on both sides.

 

The Syrians and Russians certainly see Al-Tanf as a key point.

 

'Illegal Presence': US Must Pull its Forces Out of al-Tanf Base – Syrian FM

https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201806031065044785-us-withdrawal-al-…

 

 

In reply to by Conscious Reviver

Conscious Reviver Billy the Poet Mon, 07/09/2018 - 01:35 Permalink

Yes, it is important ... to Bibi. Al Tanf is where the Bagad-Damascus Highway crosses from Iraq into Syria. The US/UK troops are positioned there to throttle a major artery of the scary (too Bibi), Shia Cresent.

Hasaka, Deir Ezzor and Manbij where US troops are stationed are important too the Yinnon plan as well.

The back story to this possible negotiated withdrawal is that the US position in Syria is untenable.

o Arab uprising against US occupation of Raqqa. https://southfront.org/citizens-raqqa-revolt-us-controlled-militants-ru…

In reply to by Billy the Poet

Conscious Reviver Billy the Poet Mon, 07/09/2018 - 02:00 Permalink

This guy has a good description of the zino under currents.

"Pacificnorthwest

The Israeli Firster establishment is between a rock and a hard place. Personally, I would prefer them in the accused docket of an identical war crimes tribunal… maybe some day.

They cannot logistically speaking entertain a war with Iran without logistical support flowing through Iraq. We all know that in practice this would not go smoothly for the Centcom forces (ieds & ambushes everywhere is closer to how it would transpire), but Zionist empire builders often suffer from delusional thinking.

Even these hubris inflated zionist puff balls… these perfumed princes exercising power realize how the Rohava project (aka. The US/Zionist plan to carve a Kurdish state out of northern and eastern Syria) no longer is an viable asset in the now collapsing dismemberment of Syria project. They can see that the kurds can’t offer them anything of current strategic or tactical benefit. They also know that these kurdish factions in Syria and Iraq have no other potential patrons or options, so the downside risk of humiliating them is minimal. Even if the ZioNato “allies” toss them into the ditch — for tactical reasons — where will they turn to? Who besides Israel and ZioNato will be their patron?

Rohava is very much loved, especially by the Mossad, but even the Mossad, which is, itself after all, staffed by cold hearted calculating psychopathic war criminals… will do the math.

Project Rohava is becoming a liability for project war with Iran. And these rabid lunatics can think of nothing else but how to bring about this long cherished war with Iran into fruition. They know they need to preserve their dwindling influence in Iraq and they also know that their open support for Kurdish seperatism is eroding what renains of their influence.

Now of course, I am strongly opposed to all of these empire building Oligarchic fascism projects, and especially to the lunacy of war with Iran. I am just doing my best to read the tea leaves here."

https://syrianperspective.com/2018/07/naseeb-crossing-liberated-the-wes…

In reply to by Billy the Poet

silver140 LetThemEatRand Mon, 07/09/2018 - 01:35 Permalink

The article did say that the US would leave northern Syria as well. This contradicts Mattis, the Mad Dog, also the US MIC under the parasitoid corporate fascists who would like Syria partitioned for pipelines from Qatar/SA, continued failed state policy for the rest of the ME with the surrogate wahabi saudi islamic jihadists doing the dirty work, and Iran destroyed as a functioning state.

A parasitoid is an organism that lives in close association with its host and at the host's expense, and which sooner or later kills it.

In reply to by LetThemEatRand

Conscious Reviver silver140 Mon, 07/09/2018 - 02:09 Permalink

Yes, but 2 things. 1) The Oded Yinon Plan was the driver. The pipeline plan from the Persian Gulf was a way to get additional actors on board, Jihadis for instance. 2) Qatar, like Elvis, has left the building. They switched sides a while ago and now want to build a pipeline to Iran, hence the KSA anger, blockade and threats directed at Qatar from KSA. Qatar has hired Turkey to protect them, so KSA can only rage threaten, but will never go up against the Turks.

In reply to by silver140