China's Tariffs Overwhelmingly Target Counties That Voted For Trump

In the latest sign that there's a political angle to the retaliatory tariffs being levied against US goods, those imposed by China on Friday overwhelmingly target counties that voted for President Trump during the 2016 election, according to an analysis by Moody's. This would suggest that, like the EU, China crafted its retaliation with the intention of destabilizing President Trump's political base.

Moodys

To wit, Moody's calculated that Beijing's retaliation will have an outsize impact on 20% of the countries that voted for Trump in 2016, with a total population of 8 million people. By "outsize" impact, we mean that the tariffs will impact industries that represent at least 25% of the GDP in those counties. To be sure, the negative impact on some of these industries might be mitigated by the US's tariffs on Chinese goods, which could help offset the damage. But only 3% of counties that went for Hillary Clinton, with a total population of 1.1 million people, are expected to be impacted to such an extent.

"The beneficiaries are pretty narrowly regionally concentrated, right in the industrial Midwest. Outside of that, it’s hard to identify anyone who benefits to any significant degree," said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics. "The areas that suffer are broader and more diffuse. The agricultural areas get nailed. Some of the manufacturing centers get hurt as well."

[...]

"If it’s over 25%, there’s a pretty good chance that the economy is going to feel it pretty significantly, could even contract, and see unemployment rise," Mr. Zandi said.

Trump has argued that China has been engaging in unfair trade practices for decades, and that it must be brought to heel, regardless of the impact on the US economy. And anecdotal evidence would suggest that at least some employees at tariff-impacted businesses support the president's efforts, regardless of the impact on their own employers. Recent polls also suggest that a majority of Americans support the president's overall agenda. The impact on soybean farmers in particular is coming at a time when farmers across the US are being squeezed by low crop prices and rising borrowing costs. The impact of soybean exports on the US economy as a whole cannot be understated, as we learned back in 2016.

As a reminder, here's what industries are effected by US and Chinese tariffs (courtesy of the BBC).

Tariffs

According to WSJ, soybean producers in the Great Plains, auto manufacturers in the upper Midwest and oil-producers in the Dakotas and Texas will see the largest negative impact from China's retaliation. And it's worth noting that Moody's analysis didn't factor in second-order effects, like which counties have consumers and businesses that will pay higher prices due to the tariffs. Higher prices for certain basic goods could stoke inflation and soak up consumer spending at a time when oil prices are moving steadily higher. But in addition to the magnitude, Republicans will be watching to see how quickly the impact from the tariffs is felt, as they prepare for the November midterms.

Comments

Rapunzal The_Juggernaut Mon, 07/09/2018 - 23:07 Permalink

Trump is NWO. He is the fall guy for the inbred elites. So everything that’s happening is ordered from the top. Trump is the puppet of the Rockefeller/Rothschilds cabal. What better than to crash the economy under a “conservative/anti globalist” president. That’s exactly what the banksters need as an excuse. The final fall of the US will demoralize exactly the base that is pro constitution. Perfect to create the NWO on the ashes of the US.

In reply to by The_Juggernaut

bluez Zero Point Tue, 07/10/2018 - 00:27 Permalink

Why would I suppose that China gives a damn about Trump? I think they are just retaliating to the new tariffs. Agriculture, mineral mining, and fuel extraction are the USSA's weakest sectors. So they hit those. Simple.

The interesting question will be where China goes to obtain the extractive products that they won't be getting anymore from the USSA. That will be a big reveal!!!

In reply to by Zero Point

vato poco falconflight Tue, 07/10/2018 - 02:11 Permalink

goooooood job there, wang chung. 

target the people who voted for Trump - and thus already were inclined to despise you and your cause - and get THOSE people pissed off at you. 

the people who, first among all Americans, that Trump will listen to and defend hardest. xi so sly! if he keeps fucking this up to this degree, there's now a chance he's toast. funtime scenario: retaliatory yankee tariffs on chinee-made crap results in 375,000 factories being shut down all over china, resulting in ... oh .... 250 million chinese folks being thrown out of work. angry mobs hundreds of thousands strong riot in the cities, burning party offices & police stations, calling for stupid-ass xi's head. roaming the countryside. bringing shame upon china. much loss of face for emperor xi!!!

it's the recurring nightmare of every chinese emperor - and now xi is working overtime to make it happen. while his courtiers and eunuchs prostrate themselves and proclaim his awesomeness. 

not a very harmonious thought, is it. one would have thought those sly subtle inscrutable chineses would have figured out a better plan than one that paints themselves into a corner, awaiting their own destruction

In reply to by falconflight

gunzeon vato poco Tue, 07/10/2018 - 03:55 Permalink

Never gonna happen, maybe a few will need to go back to their villages and live on some cold rice and some rat meat, for a while. Besides, the rest of the world's not stupid enough to think their manufacturing capacity will ever be as efficient as China's massive forced labour camp, only the exceptionals can be more productive than the Chinaman ? .... serious ?

In reply to by vato poco

Oldwood Rapunzal Mon, 07/09/2018 - 23:53 Permalink

The fake news of Russian interference in our political contests has actually created some sympathy for Russians. The Chinese targeting Trump states will earn them NO sympathy at all. They will find themselves cutting off their own noses to spite the face they see in the mirror. America's financial circumstances have been enabled by the Chinese and if they think they can stop us from defending ourselves, they will destroy themselves.

In reply to by Rapunzal

falconflight Oldwood Tue, 07/10/2018 - 00:13 Permalink

"Interference" in elections and the political process in general, by various nations is nothing new.  The Russian/Soviets have always sought to interfere, and of course so has the US.  In the 2016 elections, elements in the US Gov't and the DNC/Clinton campaign, colluded with foreign intelligence (Britain) and Russian operatives to destroy Mr. Trump's candidacy, his transition to the Presidency, and his Presidency.

In reply to by Oldwood

philipat MoreFreedom Tue, 07/10/2018 - 02:10 Permalink

China doesn't have forex loans, they are all domestic. So if a State-owned Bank or other Enterprise goes belly-up, PBOC will recapitalize it or cover its obligations to other (State owned) operations. So why is there this desperation of which you speak? The Chinese are very smart and quick learners and they have learned from the US Federal Reserve that you can print as much fiat currency as necessary; for the US because the USD is the reserve currency and for China because its debt is all domestic in an economy dominated by State players.

In reply to by MoreFreedom

roddy6667 WayBehind Mon, 07/09/2018 - 23:11 Permalink

The Blue States send more money to Washington in taxes than they get back. The Red States , except Texas, get more tax dollars coming back than they send in. In other words, except for Texas, the Red states are on welfare and are being supported by the Blue States.

Texas did not get left out of this by any kind of intelligent economic policies or astute government. In Texas, they pump money right out of the ground. 

In reply to by WayBehind

falconflight Mon, 07/09/2018 - 23:02 Permalink

Well of course. The ChiComs aren't stupid, they study us and infiltrate the society. We smile and hope they won't call us raycisssssss. The Communists now only have a dwindling group of revanchist Americans to overcome; otherwise most think they're just swell and only wanna make money and have fun.  We are so hallowed out politically and morally that the only thing between a Chinese force of liberation in North America or not, is a black swan event.