Goldman Has A New Favorite To Win The World Cup

Ever since Goldman bucked the prevailing sell-side trend which almost uniformly saw Germany as the winner of the 2018 World Cup, and declared Brazil as its favorite, many were skeptical about the Latin American nation's chances in this world cup. Which is why, to many the "shocking" defeat of Brazil at the hands of Beglium was not really all that shocking.

So with Goldman's bracket having been busted, who does the bank now sees as the statistical odds-on favorite to win the World Cup in Russia? Here is the latest "statistical" update from Goldman's Jan Hatzius:

Friday saw France win against Uruguay 2—0 (vs GS 1.27—1.01), and in an unexpected twist, Belgium defeat favourites Brazil 2—1 (vs GS 1.15—1.38). Saturday was generally in line with our model's projections, with England winning against Sweden 2—0 (vs GS 1.34—1.20), and Croatia defeating hosts Russia in penalties 2(4)—2(3) (vs GS 1.56—1.16).

With Brazil now out of the world cup, Belgium is at the top of our probability table with a 32.6% chance of lifting the trophy, closely followed by France (29.8%). Similarly, our model's modal projection is for Belgium to defeat France and England en route to winning the tournament.

Exhibit 1: World Cup Probabilities

Exhibit 2: Bracket Projection

* * *

All else equal, congratulations to England and/or Croatia.


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In reply to by machop

DetectiveStern boostedhorse Mon, 07/09/2018 - 08:28 Permalink

The English football team and the normal English supporting them have fuck all to do with the actions of the British government. Going by that logic I should hate every American for their governments shady actions but I don't because I realise that the citizens of a countryhave no control over their governments.

so leave the petty bollocks and enjoy the football.

In reply to by boostedhorse

lechiffre10 Mon, 07/09/2018 - 08:43 Permalink

Croatia Belgium will be the final. Goldman can go f*** itself. Croatia have a golden generation with great players the like of Rakitic, Modric, Mandzukic

Monsantaclaws lechiffre10 Mon, 07/09/2018 - 12:14 Permalink

They surely demonstrated that -- ?? -- when they barely hung on to beat a very limited and ordinary Russian side . The Croatian midfield was stifled by the boys in red and they were forced to play mainly defensively , rather than offensively .
God has repeatedly hinted that his chosen side are England and while his influence is much waned , we trust that it remains enough to make Britain's Young Gentlemen and Britain Great Again .

In reply to by lechiffre10

Yogapith Mon, 07/09/2018 - 08:43 Permalink

I live in the UK and spirits are very high here. And its also an unusual hot summer.

World Cup craziness...the greatest show on Earth...

errorcode99 Mon, 07/09/2018 - 09:38 Permalink

Belgium is objectively the strongest as well as most cohesive team. France is the second best right now. The probabilities are correct in my opinion.