What Happens Next?

Since the early close last Tuesday, the S&P 500 is up 80 points, The Dow is up over 700 points... but 30Y Treasury yields are unchanged and the yield curve has tumbled?

Bonds must be wrong, right? They are manipulated, right? Stocks must be the arbiter all of future knowledge - just like they were in 2008?

Still, as Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg points out, anyone questioning the bull thesis is lambasted...

"I'm accused of 'confirmation' bias and yet last I saw, the broad NYSE composite is no higher today than it was back in December, and has not made a new high since Jan 26th. Sounds a whoooole lot like a classic topping pattern..."

Doesn't look like a 'rebound' as much as the other indices so dominated by FANG etc.

This won't end well..

h/t: @carlquintanilla

As Rosenberg concludes - " Think 1989, think 2000, think 2007."


Edward Morbius Tue, 07/10/2018 - 14:12 Permalink

There is no crash until the FED SAYS there will be a crash!

Predicition: Kavanaugh turns out to be Anthony Kennedy Junior, and Kennedy's requirement for him to resign was Tweetmaster D pick the K man.

MrNoItAll Edward Morbius Tue, 07/10/2018 - 15:32 Permalink

Uneducated guess: TPTB won't let this shit show crash until The Wall is built, or mostly built. Because if the global economy crashes and burns BEFORE that wall is built, then on top of all the other difficult problems and adjustments inflicted on Americans, we'll be crawling with illegals all starving, desperate and inclined to steal, murder, rape and pillage. Just a wild-assed theory.

In reply to by Edward Morbius

IDESofMARCH Tue, 07/10/2018 - 14:15 Permalink

Markets can't continually go up on higher PE multiples and obeying FIBs and cangles, but currently everything is and is priced for perfection PLUS and there are no turbulences as they are blocked out mad investors minds.

Consuelo Tue, 07/10/2018 - 14:42 Permalink



President Trump getting out in front of this - like Now, and reminding the idiocracy of what he accurately pointed out during his campaign stumps.

To quote the Doors:

'Break on through, to the other side...'

NEOSERF Tue, 07/10/2018 - 14:55 Permalink

I bet 30 year yield goes up to 3.04 and not a goddam thing changes with the S&P OR, the S&P drops 100 (ooooooooh) pts and recorrelates to the 30 yr...who cares either way unless you are day trading.

Dohnuts Tue, 07/10/2018 - 14:59 Permalink

Shepwave.com analysts gave an analogy to the 2001 markets in Septembre of that year and the fact that sell signals were given to their traders before  the attacks on 911 but then there was a buying opportunities after the markets reopened. 


So far they are the only ones catching trends in the markets indexes and Oil and gold.