Pre-Trade-War Buying Spree Sparks Biggest Jump In Wholesale Sales Since 2011

In a sudden surge, out of the recent ranges, Wholesale sales soared 2.5% MoM in May - the biggest jump since March 2011 - suggesting pre-emptive buying ahead of Trump's tariffs (as opposed to a new trend).

Farm Products and Computers saw big sales surges MoM in Mat as it appears wholesalers bought in inevntory ahead of the expected (and now fact) trade tariffs.

Wholesale inventories also accelerated notably (the highest YoY since Nov 2014), and Wholesale inventories excluding oil rose 0.5% in May.

This surge in sales MoM relative to inventories sent the key inventories-to-sales ratio to its lowest since October 2014...

And no recession in sight, right? The question is - what happens next month when that dragged forward sales evaporates?


all-priced-in Wed, 07/11/2018 - 10:18 Permalink

Pull it forward!


Then use the increase in demand to project the next 5 year growth rate as if it is the new normal - then borrow against the forecast - to buy back stock!





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Kreditanstalt Wed, 07/11/2018 - 10:38 Permalink

Ridiculous.  These silly "statistics" depend on the activity of such a tiny "sample" of businesses that "threats of Trump trade wars" can alter them???

To see the REAL state of "the recovery" economy you need to walk down any street, talk to small business owners about their kids' futures and ask about all the "great jobs" out there...


SybilDefense Wed, 07/11/2018 - 17:10 Permalink

These tarrif trade war scares  are probably just more shenanigans to boost consumer spending during the summer lulls.  When the tarrifs are removed, just in time for Xmas shopping Trump will be able to point out how much winning the retail market had, 'even during a trade war'.  I wouldn't be a buyer of hotel stocks right now...unless they are including free flat screens with every vacation.  Peops are going to pre buy tarriffed goods instead of vacationing this summer, thinking they are smart. And the end of the year numbers will look wonderful after this years 2 buying seasons (summer and Xmas). Wonder what trick they'll use next year to ramp up our perceived needs so the 'smart' people will be separated from their income .  Duped again, people.  Market manipulation by commity..  Its a good gig if you can get it.