Smart Money Exodus Continues Despite Daily "Buy-The-F**king-US-Open-Dip" Cycle

Every day is different, right? It's an efficient, random-walk, right?

Wrong!

Whether it's the machines vicious-circling their own pattern-recognition algos or The NYFed's PPT Desk arriving at work and taking charge, the US equity market has exhibited a strong intraday 'seasonality' for the past two months.

As Bloomberg exhibits below, the reality of trade wars take a bite out of stocks overnight, only to suddenly and inexplicably bid as the US equity markets open. However, once European markets close, the intraday party is over and sellers come back en masse, dumping into the US equity market close.

 

“This type of back and forth price action has defined 2018 thus far,” said Frank Cappelleri, senior equity trader at Instinet LLC.

“We’ve seen strong moves in both directions fade quickly, no matter what time from we’re talking about it -- be it intraday or over multiple weeks. The long-lasting moves of last year have been challenging to find for nearly six months now, making it hard to trust any budding trend up to this point.

As Bloomberg notes, the contrasting performance may also reflect divergent sentiment in the U.S. versus the rest of the world. Perhaps not coincidentally, the S&P 500 has outperformed stocks from Europe to Asia as tax cuts bolstered profits for corporate America... because Trump's trade war has to be perceived as a positive for the US economy (and stocks - as everyone knows - are discounting the awesomeness of the economy going forward, just like they did in March 2000 and Dec 2007)

And at the same time, as "trade war' rhetoric has recently re-escalated, VIX has plummeted divergently...

However, as we have noted previously, while Johnny 5 and his algo acquaintances 'PPT' the US markets intraday, the consistency of the late-day fade implies the smart-money - which tends to trade when the market is at its most liquid - is continuing its exodus of the stock market, happily selling to dissonant retail investors and corporations...

Comments

gdpetti Liquid_Silver Thu, 07/12/2018 - 15:16 Permalink

Yes and no... but most of those that reach the top rungs of the corporate ladder are rather well informed... they know the economy is about to roll over and play dead.... a few are well connected and know about all the other endtimes engineered chaos going on ... a smaller handfull know about Mother Nature's approaching affect on our EM field... the passing dark star(brown dwarf.. burnt out) and the comet cluster behind it... brand new due to this passing 'dead star' through our Oort Cloud... so this time we will 'enjoy' the full effect to end our 'Iron Age'... and reset the game... but this cluster is paired with a larger cosmic 'border' or 'wave'... which is the real game changer.... but that is so woo-woo...

This game that this article mentions will play out until the money runs out.... some companies have more than others.... as the tax free bring it home giveaway from the current regime headed by Trump has allowed this last pump and dump to the market... extended the pump a little longer than usual... because the real PTB know that Mother Nature is arriving within the decade to clean house... thus those infamous 'deep underground bases etc'... just as previous civilizations built underground to escape these events.

So this time is different.. the end of the Iron Age as the newly refreshed main body comet cluster arrives, after the brown dwarf passes over the ecliptic plane... so no more markets when the cluster arrives.. no more music even.. so party like hell is upon you, right? That is our situation.. 'out with the OWO, in with the NWO'... system suicide... best if the puppets and sheeple don't know how manipulated they are... but even when you show them, to weaken the OWO and all its puppets, the herd still stays the course.... same as always.... so the game here in 'Purgatory' is really about that select few able to 'wake up' and choose sides in the cosmic game on the Tree of Life. Most will just ride the wave under and return 'home' to the after/before life zone or center position on the Tree.

Most of this 'smart' money isn't that smart... they play the game as presented to them... same with all of us... money won't matter when the field of play changes.... this pump and dump in the market is the last... well, almost... should collapse as the companion/dwarf star passes by... then jump back to life.... like in '34... until the main body comet cluster/wave arrives... then it's really party over, oops out of 'time'. That's the script... so expect more and more over the top actions as the puppet  masters take down their OWO... and bring their NWO out of the closet.... like reverse Narnia... OZ... Matrix etc.

In reply to by Liquid_Silver

el buitre gdpetti Thu, 07/12/2018 - 16:35 Permalink

Interesting comment.  Any informed person knows that NASA was started and run by German Nazis that came over on Paperclip.  Not just Germans, but card carrying Nazis.  Von Braun for example was an SS major and would have been executed at Nuremberg for crimes against humanity (dealing with the slave labor at Peenemünde).  I feel that NASA, often referred to as Never A Straight Answer, is still a hotbed of disinformation.  That said, there are still enough honest amateur astronomers on this planet that some real evidence should have come out, though one might argue that all the Nibiru enthusiasts say that it does not orbit in the plane of the ecliptic and it is coming in from the far south, leaving amateur astronomers in South America and South Africa as the watchdogs - not ideal.  And why did the Jesuits build LUCIFER in New Mexico?  Others argue that it emits mainly in the invisible infrared, but a true brown dwarf also has substantial radiation in the visible though far red.  Also, a lot of amateur astronomers use cameras that are sensitive to the near infrared.  If it were to pass by before the end of this decade, it would have to be at a distance today equal to the asteroid belt, so it should have been noticed.  All that said, I am keeping an open mind, but I don't see enough hard evidence.  Too many dogs that didn't bark.

In reply to by gdpetti

Automatic Choke Thu, 07/12/2018 - 14:34 Permalink

As long as the vast herds of sheep keep ignoring their 401(k) accounts, the automatic payroll deductions will automatically keep shoving cash over to the brokerages, who are directed to automatically put it into index funds, which will automatically buy the indices in proportion.   All of it mindless, all of it automatic, all of it relentless until something hiccups enough to scare the herd into a stampede, then the net gets jammed and phones autodial 1-800-DUMP-STOCK.  

So what will stampede the herd?   It takes a lot in these days of ignorance and complacency.....

 

Goodsport 1945 Thu, 07/12/2018 - 14:41 Permalink

My guess is that Trump has to try and delay a market correction until after the November elections.  The public does not understand bubbles and thinks trees are supposed to grow to the sky.

TradingRat Thu, 07/12/2018 - 15:03 Permalink

LOL look at the chart.... Smart was clearly wrong back in 2004 and 2005 and they quickly rushed to get in the market... Is this even reliable? These people will jump into the market when they realize that they actually have nowhere to go but equities... Like seriously are you gonna buy treasury bonds when the rates are going up?, or are they going to buy European bonds?. Please think people.... why is it the people always focus on a single market and try to conclude their prediction... 

 

Besides who said they are selling to retail investors?. the retail participation is still low.... Just go ask anyone around you who doesn't know about finance,,, they all think its crazy idea to buy equity.. and they have been thinking this ever since 2015. Inflation is going up along with the rates and what goes up when the inflation rise?, The stock market....

Snaffew TradingRat Thu, 07/12/2018 - 15:14 Permalink

yeah...and when rates were dropping, the market went up, and now rates are rising and the market goes up....the idea that there is nowhere else to put your money is stupid.  One could short equities, go long pm's and commodities, play the contrarian bond market.  Most people don't know what a bear market is and believe they will never see one---you sure sound like one of those.  There is no such thing as a no lose scenario.  Charts are backwards looking.  Trends end and a chart won't tell you that until the trend is long over.

In reply to by TradingRat

IDESofMARCH Thu, 07/12/2018 - 15:27 Permalink

The DUMB money has to buy so the SMART money can MAKE MONEY selling to the DUMB money.

The smart get smarter and richer and the dumb money gets dummer and dummer.

the Dood Thu, 07/12/2018 - 18:29 Permalink

This "smart money" also sells the inverse funds at the close... and buys. So you have equal numbers of buyers and sellers here, all smart

inosent Thu, 07/12/2018 - 18:31 Permalink

These articles rarely get views and comments. Anyway, nobody pays attention to what anybody else says. Besides not getting eaten alive by a (((luciferian))) infrastructure (btw, I am going to post a paper on that 'luciferian' comment I always make because I am certain many ppl to read the reference have no idea WTH I am talking about), the next most important thing is to keep the cash flowing in.

The weird thing about this market is it is very narrow for one, just a few stocks getting all the money, but we have a very weak dow that wants to break down, the SP doing better, but still pretty flabby, and then there is NASDAQ leading the market higher.

Now that NASDAQ has once again made new all time highs, does that mean SP/DOW follow?

Well, I think it all comes down to politics. Trump owns politics, he keeps getting dealt Aces, and he is on a roll. Demoncraps are banal vacuous door knobs, and I have a very hard time imagining the repuklikans not trouncing the demoncraps in November, gaining more seats.

That means the market is very likely to hold the bid, and it doesn't look like new yearly lows anytime soon.

No crash until after November, if at all.