Trade Tumult Sparks Safe-Haven Bid For US Bonds & Mega-Cap Tech Stocks

Investors chose to 'barbell' their portfolios today (if you want to believe that such a thing as 'investors' exist) - seeking protection from trade wars by buying bonds and buying the biggest cap, highest valuation, tech behemoths - makes perfect sense really...

Chinese stocks were miraculously panic bid at the open (remember this was after US equities had tumbled)...

 

Once again - as futures show - the US equity market open sparked a ridiculous panic-buying spree in Nasdaq (mega-tech) stocks...

*NASDAQ 100, NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEXES CLOSE AT ALL-TIME HIGHS

Cash markets show that Small Caps undeperformed and actually struggled to get green for a while before europe closed and more momentum came into US Stocks...

VIX was monkeyhammered lower as S&P 2800 was once again the target for the machines but failed (NOTE - the pre-market signaling that we have seen before in those VIX tails)

 

And The Dow extended its bounce off the 50/100DMA...(NOTE, it may be a small thing but this was a lower high in the dow)

 

And another giant short-squeeze...

 

Wells Fargo was lower but the rest of the big banks were up ahead of earnings tomorrow morning..

 

FANG Stocks surged to a new record high...

Does anyone else get the feeling these markets are being 'helped' to ensure the policies of the countries' officials appear to be working (or not hurting)?

And so while investors sought the safe-haven of mega-cap tech stocks, they also bid the long-end of the bond curve...

 

30Y Yields rebounded to pre-Tariff levels then fell back...

 

Notably, following CPI's print this morning, real 30Y yield are once again almost negative...

 

Oh, and while the longer-dated yield curve continued to collapse...

 

The short-end has already inverted...

 

Transitory...

 

The dollar chopped around intraday but ended practically unchanged...

 

Offshore Yuan tumbled overnight, then rebounded to test up to the CNY fix (which was notably devalued), before fading again...

 

Cryptos legged down once again today...

 

PMs managed small gains on the day, as did copper, but crude kept tumbling...

 

In fact WTI traded back below $70 for a while today

 

 

Comments

Solosides Thu, 07/12/2018 - 16:01 Permalink

I wanted to post something witty about Banking and Zionism today but I am too tired and don't really give a fuck anymore. I'm just sitting and waiting for the whole system to explode.

Enjoy your Investment Watch Blog spam free first post.

D.r. Funk thesmallwheel Thu, 07/12/2018 - 16:46 Permalink

Buddy, the overnight priming kicks in very quickly often

You're aware of that right? The boj buys currency&etfs overnight? The central banks? Not "the market"? But institutions that have extreme-influence on where futures and the europe session goes? Ecb has stage 2 overnight?

Futures were +100 most of the overnight +160 by 6am

Just getting you back on track, lol, there's no logic or conclusion available what-so-ever that overnight the market is focusing on solid macro data, and that's why it decides to go back up. Vix has programming on it also just btw, in terms of the "fear index" or what could happen etc. the vix was clearly-clearly being suppressed 3+ years ago

Not castigating you just hope it registers "oh, i'm kind of a sucker" "now... i get it..."

In reply to by thesmallwheel

Snaffew thesmallwheel Thu, 07/12/2018 - 17:06 Permalink

HA, you can't spin rationale into this.  Take NFLX for example...in the last 6 months, the company has increased market cap by the next 4 years of projected total revenues combined.  Yeah...growth.  AMZN is a one way ticket to riches.  These will eventually crumble back to reality...AMZN is maybe a $400 stock generously valued in the real world.  These markets are Fantasyland for CNBC watchers.

In reply to by thesmallwheel

Hammer823 Thu, 07/12/2018 - 16:02 Permalink

U.S. stock valuations are CRITICAL to the global economy.  EVERYTHING, from consumer spending to government budgets is dependent on equities.  This is the reason stocks reverse intraday losses like clockwork.  It’s the reason BTD exists and why “bad” news always turns into “good” news.  It’s the reason the median Shiller P/E since 2000 is equal to the PEAK P/E of the Roaring 20’s.  U.S. Market indexes are programmed to behave the way we NEED them to behave.  And they NEED to go up over time, regardless of company performance. So a Trade War is “good” for stocks.  Just like higher interest rates are “good” too.

D.r. Funk Fidel Sarcastro Thu, 07/12/2018 - 16:39 Permalink

If the indexes are 100% commandeered, which evidence generally points to and did awhile ago, someone saying "everything is bullish" is not fundamentally right (lol)

Especially if you look at the language used, and the phrasing, (can you have a little tiny bit of critical thinking? and, the internet is full of various propaganda?) 

Could it not be an attempt to argue that everyone should believe the stock market always-goes-up-forever even though it's just being manipulated, and, into further bubble mountaintops?

In reply to by Fidel Sarcastro

D.r. Funk Thu, 07/12/2018 - 16:04 Permalink

NOT - GETTING - TRIPLEDIGIT - TOMORROW

and nasdaq: too over-zealous overly-ravenous overly uniform to be organic
manipulated psygame ruse
Are you kidding that youre dissuading me?
Fabricated Increase
 

Kaiser Sousa Thu, 07/12/2018 - 16:09 Permalink

another day...

another obviously fraudulent "trading" pattern in the U.S Fraud Markets...

U know the routine...

* ramp at open on absolutely NO POSITIVE MACR-ECONOMIC NEWS/DATA WHATSOFUCKINGEVER...

*ramp on the EuroPeon close...

*and then the "sideways shuffle" all the into the close...

can it be anymore obvious???

DEATH TO THE MONEYCHANGERS...

D.r. Funk Yellow_Snow Thu, 07/12/2018 - 16:29 Permalink

The hyper anomalous nasdaq gains have been glaring

meaning in terms of context and count etc, there were scattered "bullshit intradays" several months ago, the past few months have contained way more than an avg or normal expectation, what does that say..., and as ive noted biotech surges are above avg also, what does that say..., inferences/merely continued evidence of engineered bubble forced surging, hey controllers it's glaring-to-anyone-with-critical-thinking-you're-not-as-powerful-over-the-entire-population-as-you-think

In reply to by Yellow_Snow

Lizardking Thu, 07/12/2018 - 16:11 Permalink

AMZN to 2000, MSFT to 108. Shorting right now and waiting until mid 2019 will yield a positive return. Better though to continue buying the dips and sell tops which we are experiencing today or tomorrow morning. 

 

Anyone else see short covering liquidation in the nasdaq today??? Should fuel the nasdaq until the end of 2018. Buy the quick one day sell offs on nasdaq (but wait until end of the trading day) 

 

Fiat Burner Thu, 07/12/2018 - 16:16 Permalink

This is the most idiotic period in financial history. Yet your average Ameridumb thinks everything is totally normal.  This is probably the worst time to be alive for someone who is responsible, frugal, and wise to the insanity.

falak pema Thu, 07/12/2018 - 16:31 Permalink

for ZH to talk about "safe haven" in Faustian Financialized USA, is beyond "head up ass"; its the sign that the Tylers' ZH click -o-bait billboard has now become the trumpet of TBTF America; that the Hedge was CREATED to DEMEAN...

How head up ass can the TYLERS become to support their click-o-bait model of Breitbartian DYSTOPIA that is the very ANTITHESIS OF WHAT ZH WAS spawned to DECRY...??

Haha!

How the wheel of 'Rancho Mirage' roulette wheel can spin!

The DUCK now epitomizes what ZH was born to decry : Oligarchy hubris that created margin call 2008 which was the INCEPTION of capitalism betrayed!

You guys have now become the shadow of what you pledged to be your "raison d'être!" : defenders of capitalism's pristine prime principle; now betrayed to support a Nerotic Caesar! 

Ave Caesar : Morituri te salutant ! Is now the Hedge's new mantra!

Downtoolong Thu, 07/12/2018 - 17:46 Permalink

When your go-to safe-haven is five tech stocks that account for 90% of the return in the S&P500 this year, investors should know they’re in trouble. But, they don’t. Oh well, don’t say I didn’t warn you.