Initial Jobless Claims Plunge To Lowest Since The '60s

Initial jobless claims in the last week tumbled to 207,000.

This is the lowest level of claims since November 1969 (when The Beatles' "Abbey Road" album was #1 in the US)...

...and still no wage pressure...

And is this why the yield curve is collapsing? It's pricing in the 'end' of the cycle, not a renewed cycle?


Hal n back Haus-Targaryen Thu, 07/19/2018 - 08:53 Permalink

Since there are so many independent contractors now, as well as H1b workers, when they are terminated they cannot file for uc benefits, thus the jobless number has to decline. 

Now, knowing how passionate most government workers are, this might not be an intentional error in reporting but just a failure for the workers to even think about it, including the supervisors.

In the private sector, there is more thought process. Not all th etime but in a well disciplined company with real good management (leaves out "the"  top mgt of Tesla)

In reply to by Haus-Targaryen

Byrond Four Stop Thu, 07/19/2018 - 08:56 Permalink

The numbers are junk stats. However, if the numbers are good, you are still wrong. From June 2008 to June 2018, 8 million jobs were added while the population increased by approx 24 million. The worker participation rate was 66% in 2008 and dropped to 62.9 percent due to the recession. It is still 62.9 percent. Taking this into account, if all is now as it was in June 2008, the current U3 unemployment rate would be over 8 percent, the same as during the depths of the recession. You cannot use the bottom of the recession as a starting point, because the population has increased while the partucipation rate has not increased. You can only use the bottom if all other variables remained static. Sorry.

In reply to by Four Stop

Iskiab Byrond Thu, 07/19/2018 - 09:12 Permalink

Agreed, looking at the participation rate things are good but not great.  Participation rate is telling about the number of people disabled, retired, out of the workforce and not looking for jobs, etc...  

This will make economist’s head explode, but as the economy changes the metrics used to gauge the economy need to change too.  

In reply to by Byrond

Arnold Thu, 07/19/2018 - 08:40 Permalink

I know I have no claim,
having worked part time in 5 different jobs in seven years,
and I'm damn sure not paying into Unemployment Pool with my under the table projects.

Byrond Thu, 07/19/2018 - 08:42 Permalink

You know something is horribly wrong because:

US troop numbers peaked in 1969 with President Johnson approving an increased maximum number of US troops in Vietnam at 549,500. The year was the most expensive in the Vietnam war with the American spending US$77.4 billion (US$ 544 billion in 2018) on the war.

Let the trade bot crash begin!

KarlGDenninger Thu, 07/19/2018 - 08:54 Permalink

Jobs going unfilled because of stupid "25 YEAR COLLEGE DEGREES ONLY HURRRRRRR"


Fuck them. Let the stew boil. Lets see them wages rise. I paid $199 for my college degree and it arrived in the mail and anybody who calls the number will get a verified customer service person saying i went to school there and was top of the purchasing class

Old Poor Richard Thu, 07/19/2018 - 08:55 Permalink

Wages are not rising because the minimum rage lunatics have put employers on the defensive, feel surrounded.  Market forces not being allowed to fix this because of non-market-based wage pressure distortion.

tedstr Thu, 07/19/2018 - 08:56 Permalink

Saw a teenage white boy running the cash register at Subway yesterday.  Saw one cutting my grass along side the Salvadorans last week.  Saw adss for grounds keepers laborers on an upscale golf community real estate site yesterday.  The struggle is real