Gartman: "This Is A Dangerous Time"

Instead of sharing with readers which way Dennis Gartman (who on July 5 was apocalyptic and less than 2 weeks later, turned euphoric) is leaning right now, we will simply present his latest thoughts, without commentary, for which we have gotten heat recently, and let readers make their won own conclusions.

Having added 75 points since yesterday, our International Index is once again higher for the year-to-date, but by the very barest of margins, for our Index closed last year at 12,157 and it is 12,165 this morning as we write and mark prices. However, stocks in globally terms are still well below their collective high forged back in the last few days of January when our Index made it all the way to 12,857; so as of this morning stocks are still down 5.4% from those highs.

We have entered that period of time… the latter period in most bull markets… when prices move higher despite the news which can be and may indeed be of poor economics. Earnings may not be as strong as had been expected, but stocks “shake” that off and move higher. GDP numbers fail to reach their pre-report expectations and stocks open lower on that disappointing news but finish the day higher nonetheless. The US and Iran may take up rhetorical war one against the other, but stocks don’t care; they go higher. The monetary authorities begin the process of tightening monetary policy and this is, for the moment, seen and understood to be bullish news so share prices head higher. It may be nonsense, but it is the reality of the moment.

This, then, is a dangerous time, for the great game of investment-oriented “musical chairs” will eventually end all of a sudden, and there will be a very real shortage of chairs for everyone to land in safely. Prices then shall collapse in a heap and that day might be today, or it might be tomorrow, or it might not be for several months into the future but it will eventually come. Thus, one has to play the game nimbly and be prepared to exit long positions at the moment’s swift notice. However, for now the trend is up; the “shorts” are on the defensive and the tide is with the longs, for after all, “This is a bull market:”

Finally, note the chart this page, courtesy of RBMP Capital, of the huge and increasing sales of Facebook by its founder, Mr.  Mark Zuckerberg, over the course of the past several years and most notably over the course of the past several months. When owners sell this aggressively… no matter what the excuse they might give…only the foolhardy do not pay heed.