Top U.S. Shale Oil Fields Decline Rate Reaches New Record.... Half Million Barrels Per Day

By the SRSrocco Report,

While the U.S. reached a new record of 11 million barrels of oil production per day last week, the top five shale oil fields also suffered the highest monthly decline rate ever.  This is bad news for the U.S. shale industry as it must produce more and more oil each month, to keep oil production from falling.

According to the newest EIA Drilling Productivity Report, the top five U.S. Shale Oil fields monthly oil decline rate is set to surpass a half million barrels per day in August.  Thus, the companies will have to produce at last 500,000 barrels of new oil next month just to keep production flat.

Here are the individual shale oil field charts from the EIA's July Drilling Productivity Report:

The figures that are shown above the UP arrow denote the forecasted new production added next month while the figures above the DOWN arrow provide the monthly legacy decline rate.  For example, the chart on the bottom right-hand side is for the Permian Region.  The EIA forecasts that the Permian will add 296,000 barrels per day (bpd) of new shale oil production in August, while the existing wells in the field will decline by 223,000 bpd.

If we add up these top five shale oil fields monthly decline rate for August will be 503,000 bpd.  Thus, the shale oil companies must produce at least 503,000 bpd of new oil supply next month just to keep production from falling.  And, we must remember, this decline rate will continue to increase as shale oil production rises.

We can see this in the following chart below.  Again, according to the EIA's figures, the top five U.S. shale oil fields monthly legacy decline rate increased from 398,000 bpd in January to 503,000 bpd for August:

In just the first seven months of 2018, the total monthly decline rate from these top shale fields increased by 26%.  These massive decline rates are the very reason the shale oil and gas companies are struggling to make money.  A perfect example of this is PXD, Pioneer Resources.  Pioneer is the largest shale oil producer in the Permian.  According to Pioneer's Q1 2018 Report:

Producing 260 thousand barrels oil equivalent per day (MBOEPD) in the Permian Basin, an increase of 9 MBOEPD, or 3%, compared to the fourth quarter of 2017; first quarter Permian Basin production was at the top end of Pioneer’s production guidance range of 252 MBOEPD to 260 MBOEPD; as previously announced, freezing temperatures in early January resulted in production losses of approximately 6 MBOEPD; Permian Basin oil production increased to 170 thousand barrels of oil per day (MBOPD); 63 horizontal wells were placed on production.

Pioneer spent $818 million on capital expenditures (CapEx) for additions to oil and gas properties (drilling and completion costs) during Q1 2018, brought on 63 horizontal wells in the Permian, and only added 9,000 barrels per day of oil equivalent over the previous quarter.  So, how much Free Cash Flow did Pioneer make with oil prices at the highest level in almost four years??  Well, you're not going to believe me... so here is Pioneer's Cash Flow Statement below:

Pioneer reported $554 million in cash from operations and spent $818 million drilling and completing oil wells in the Permian and a few other locations.  Thus, Pioneer's Free Cash Flow was a negative $264 million.  However, Pioneer spent an additional $51 million for additions to other assets and other property and equipment shown right below the RED highlighted line for a total of $869 million in total CapEx spending.  Total net free cash flow for Pioneer is -$315 million if we include the additional $51 million.

Therefore, the largest shale oil producer in the Permian spent $264 million more than they made from operations drilling 63 new wells in the Permian and only added a net 9,000 barrels per day of oil equivalent.  Now, how economical is that???

How long can this insanity go on??

If we look at the Free Cash Flow for some of the top shale energy companies in Q1 2018, here is the result:

Of the ten shale companies in the chart above (in order: Continental, EOG, Whiting, Concho, Marathon, Oasis, Occidental, Hess, Apache & Pioneer), only three enjoyed positive free cash flow, while seven suffered negative free cash flow losses.  The net result of the group was a negative $455 million in free cash flow.  

Even with higher oil prices, the U.S. shale energy companies are still struggling to make money.

So, the question remains.  What happens to these shale oil companies when the oil price falls back towards $30 when the stock market drops by 50+% over the next few years??  And how is the U.S. Shale Energy Industry going to pay back the $250+ billion in debt??

Lastly, here is my recent video on the Shale Oil Ponzi Scheme if you haven't seen it yet:

Check back for new articles and updates at the SRSrocco Report


7thGenMO Fahq Yuhaad Thu, 07/26/2018 - 06:20 Permalink

Crude price manipulation is important to maintain the (fraudulent) petrodollar system because the sheeple subconsciously measure inflation through the price of gasoline.  The Oligarchy that owns The Fed will not give up the petrodollar system because it is their main weapon for global domination and control.  Unprofitable shale companies will continue to be lent money ;)

In reply to by Fahq Yuhaad

El Vaquero truthseeker47 Thu, 07/26/2018 - 12:46 Permalink

That's not what the article is saying.  If we stopped drilling and fracking today, in one month's time, the production would decline by 500k bbl/day.  To offset that, 500k bbl/day production from new wells needs to be brought online in a month, which is what they're doing.  The problem is, the more production, the more they have to drill just to keep production flat.

In reply to by truthseeker47

lunaticfringe El Vaquero Fri, 07/27/2018 - 10:06 Permalink

Ya know I am amazed at articles like this. Do fractured wells run out faster? Yes. Can you over work a run out well and re-fracture it? Yes. Is the size of the Permian field about the size of Oklahoma? Yes.


Most importantly, do oil companies cap existing wells and leave oil in the ground?Yes. It is the cheapest way to store oil until you reach a price point that appeals to that particular outfit.


There is a lot of bullshit in this piece. We ain't running out of oil.

In reply to by El Vaquero

worbsid truthseeker47 Thu, 07/26/2018 - 13:28 Permalink

You forgot the /sarc


This is a well know item, horizontal fracking produces very well for a couple years and then not so much.  Also known that the US uses 17 to 19 (depending on who is telling) million barrels per day so the US still imports a lot of crude per day.  We use it like there is no tomorrow and one day there won't be but I'm 85 so the three words to tranquility applies. "Not my problem".  

In reply to by truthseeker47

MK ULTRA Alpha 1 Alabama Fri, 07/27/2018 - 04:44 Permalink

The Seeking Alpha article proves the author is full of S-t. He's always full of S-t. There is a massive number of uncompleted wells. It's a backlog of wells drilled from the last shale boom. Firms went out of business sold the wells or firms needing capital sold their wells. Thus capital expenditure costs are lower with Drilled But Uncompleted (DUC). I estimate over 8000 wells are capped in the shale fields, in conventional fields the number is extremely high, conventional reservoir capped wells will fill up with natural gas or natural gas can be used to pressurize reservoirs if water isn't available.

This was a reason for major petroleum companies to invest in shale. The uncompleted wells production potential is a recorded tangible asset. In other words, majors were purchasing production, not high capital expenditure of which is the thesis of the author who is always pumping the same axis of reasoning.

Drilled but Uncompleted Wells.

Anadarko 977 wells /Year to Year 2016 to 2017 63% increase.

Appalachia 785 wells/YY 2016 to 2017 8% decrease.

Bakken 713 wells/YY 2016 to 2017 10% decrease.

Eagle Ford 1441/YY 2016 to 2017 23% increase.

Haynesville 195/YY 2016 to 2017 37% increase.

Niobrara 630/YY 2016 to 2017 4% increase.

Permian 2613/YY 2016 to 2017 112% increase.

total 7354 DRILLED but uncompleted YY increase 36%.

The above is old data of December 2017, the numbers in shale fields are higher now, why? Logistics bottlenecks across the entire petroleum industry, specifically transportation. Everyone has said over and over we will reach a bottleneck because of lack of workers, trucks, rail car tankers and pipelines.…

The above article outlines what Haliburton CEO Jeff Miller recently stated. It's just another anecdotal collection of data supporting the thesis, lack of infrastructure is causing a slow down in production growth. Miller also stated what I've written on ZH, in late 2019 two Texas pipelines will be ready. I posted this will change the dynamic of the US domestic petroleum market.

The commissioner of the Texas Railroad Commission made a report last month explaining the bottleneck. Pipelines are what we need, once more pipelines are on line, then the world will see the real hydrocarbon potential of the US.

I worked for the Texas Railroad commission as a student intern. I spent three years in the PE department of UT Austin during my 9.5 years in the university system, 7 at UT Austin. At anytime, all I have to do is review a Schlumberger well log analysis manual, a reservoir engineering and geology text book to take the Petroleum Engineer License of the State of Texas. I have the academic requirement.

Even Schlumberger said the same thing Jeff Miller and Commissioner Ryan Sitton, “Sitton said that while pipeline bottlenecks will eventually work themselves out, for now, it's a real obstacle to both crude oil and natural gas in the region.”

Texas is calling upon you, Texas told you, we will pay you $150K to work in the Permian and Eagle Ford shale fields. There will be no hotel to live in, one doesn't need a hotel or an apartment out there, you will sleep in the back of your truck. We need every man, woman and child in Texas now.

I wrote before about this - Texas is calling upon you.

In conclusion, the US will reach the goal of 14 million barrels per day in 2020 in time for the presidential inauguration of Donald J. Trump.

In reply to by 1 Alabama

MK ULTRA Alpha MK ULTRA Alpha Fri, 07/27/2018 - 05:48 Permalink

There is a big difference between natural gas and oil produced from shale. Natural gas is now the prize. I wrote the other day about a new tread, natural gas revenue growth was out pacing crude revenues in majors. In other words, the percentage growth of natural gas revenues compared to growth in crude oil revenues is proving the natural gas conversion of the US economy is now the trend.

I also added that demand for crude has slowed in the US market because of electric cars, better gas mileage standards and the conversion of the US economy to natural gas. The poster LawsofPhysics attacked me saying it was an engineer and knew about the oil sector. Many attacks and now we see Lawsofphysics isn't a college educated engineer, but an idiot from the post I've seen.

Each shale formation is different, the belief all shale fields are the same is the driver of this war on oil firms.…

"In total, 470,000 acres of assets are covered in the deal, including fields in the Permian in west Texas, the Eagle Ford in south Texas and Haynesville in east Texas and Louisiana.

Analysts said Eagle Ford was the most valuable of the three because of its scale and economics, while the Permian offered the greatest long-term promise."

The above is within a few hours old, proving another major is buying up shale fields. I guess posters on this board know more than the billions pouring into shale from major firms. Again, shale fields are all different, some with a constant stream of natural gas others must be re-drilled to find it. There are around 600,000 natural gas wells in the US.

Years ago, natural gas was a by product of drilling, I made the natural gas flare per well report for Texas at the Railroad commission. We either burned it off or pumped it into the reservoir to maintain pressure. I had access to data and location of every well ever drilled, every reservoir in Texas.

Today, a light crude from shale is the by product and natural gas is the prize. There are two kinds of shale natural gas, huge pockets with unlimited flow and tight natural gas. The latest technology is a drill bit which seeks hydrocarbons. So the belief cost are increasing in tight plays is inaccurate. See, sandstone and limestone formations are apart of the shale formation, again, not all shale fields are the same, some shallow and some deeper.

The above map is a good map of what's happening. Look at the Michigan shale formation, there's this company called General Motors, they drilled a gas well on their land, it's flowed for decades.

So it's really political, like fake science, those who hate America are running their data through a political filter.

In reply to by MK ULTRA Alpha

RationalLuddite MK ULTRA Alpha Fri, 07/27/2018 - 12:44 Permalink

Example - Art Berman, one of the main, on the ground geologists who works in US Shale, strongly begs to differ. He largely agrees with SRSrocco. The US will be a net importer of gas from mid next year. Shale is a ponzi con. 

Look - The empirical reality that the US had to import LNG from Russia last winter should alert you to not trust these shale companies at their word, as should their cash burn. Performance contradiction to what they are claiming Amigo. And capacity constraints are merely slowing the reckoning day for this lie.

All the rest about exporting to Europe is either completely delusional or simply a lie. Skip to the last 15 minutes if you haven't an hour. This is from May 2018. You are buying the lie MK. Sorry but reality will dominate within 5 years and everyone will be post hoc fuckin geniuses and say "yeah of course it couldn't continue. I knew they were full of BS".

Watch please

In reply to by MK ULTRA Alpha

MK ULTRA Alpha RationalLuddite Fri, 07/27/2018 - 13:57 Permalink

"The US will be a net importer of gas from mid next year." That's totally insane.

I guess the two Liquid Natural Gas plants, the latest and most advanced technology built only since Trump approved the permit which Obama wouldn't allow is a waste of money. Have you seen them, they're beautiful.

Buddy, have you ever looked up the reserves of natural gas? Proven reserves?

Lets talk about Alaska, natural gas is clocked at around 120 trillion cubic feet, that's an incorrect estimate, and it has been proven obsolete. If what you're saying is reality, then it will be a national security emergency, maybe that's what we need, so we can get the TransAlaskan natural gas pipeline built next to the crude pipeline.

I can say with confidence, when Trump rescinded Obama's restrictions on hydrocarbon production, the reserves of crude and natural gas went up exponential for this nation. I believe from all of what I've seen of the huge finds recently in Alaska we're on the edge of the greatest boom in hydrocarbons in the history of not only the US but the entire world.

Alaska is holding over 300 trillion cubic feet natural gas and they keep trying to tell us and no one is listening. They're going to get their pipeline.

And I said on ZH no one would believe it, North Slope is holding well over 50 billion barrels of crude, and this is just the beginning.

Defeatism is now embedded in the American character? Obama closed off an important find in Alaska immediately after the find was reported. How would you like to work your ass off, spend a lot of money and this wasn't a huge firm, and as soon as you make the find of the century, Obama shuts it down? That was when gas prices were going through the roof.

Now let me ask you, is this man you cite, is he smarter than the supermajor oil firms investing in shale? Billions and billions of announced investment and this man is telling you they're wrong?

Maybe he's an agent of coal, nuclear, solar, wind, I don't know, but we're not going to be importing natural gas next year, unless he means like the screwed up pipeline story for Boston last year when they imported a load of natural gas. That was because the governor of NY would not allow the use of pipelines through NY to Boston because it came from a shale field.

In reply to by RationalLuddite

MK ULTRA Alpha MK ULTRA Alpha Fri, 07/27/2018 - 14:15 Permalink

I need to explain, the Permian basin has produced over 20 billion barrels of oil. It has a long history and still crude oil and natural gas are being discovered. It still has long term potential.

This guy is working for coal, nuclear, maybe even solar and wind, or get this, he could be working for Putin. Yeah, that's how lost in space this is, by mid next year, mid 2019, the US will be a net importer of natural gas? The US will be a major exporter of natural gas. period.

There are natural gas and crude oil fields that are shut in after the discovery well. There are capped wells all over this nation.

Listen to me, over a million illegals voted last time, there were also millions of ghost voters, not even real. This time it will be millions more illegals, yes being registered and there will be millions more ghost voters.

If we do not succeed there will be a bloody civil war, so we have to win. The Trump Derangement Syndrome is strong in you, do you believe someone can break into my house and then vote me out of my house? that's the same as saying we are not producing enough natural gas so we'll be net importers. Look we produce natural gas from everywhere, if shale natural gas drops, then demand will cause Gulf natural gas to flow at a higher rate.

There are huge fields ready to flow, in the ground, ready and waiting to open the valves. Did you know this, apparently this man doesn't know that.

Don't worry, an start growing cannabis, the trade deficit in cannabis is around $80 billion. Trump has stated legalize it, why? because we are running a huge cannabis trade deficit with Canada, Mexico, Central and South America.

In reply to by MK ULTRA Alpha

MK ULTRA Alpha MK ULTRA Alpha Fri, 07/27/2018 - 14:33 Permalink

OK, I listened to it. I've seen and heard him before. I'll bet money, the US will not be a net importer of natural gas mid 2019 especially when natural gas pipelines are coming on line. He's a Peak Oil advocate, which means we are running out of oil.

Did you know, southern California and California in general has more oil and natural gas than Texas? It's restricted.

Obama helped the Peak Oil advocates didn't he, closed off huge regions to production, that's production, the oil and natural gas had already been discovered.

In October of 2019, Kinder Morgans Natural Gas pipeline from the Permian to Corpus Christi will transport 2 Billion cubic feet per day. This means, the entire east coast of the US will have coverage. It's a $2 billion pipeline.


In reply to by MK ULTRA Alpha

new game Thu, 07/26/2018 - 06:19 Permalink

Are you suggesting some awesome shorts?

but what if oil goes to 100/bbl?

awe, some risk...

and then there is iran, the straights of hormez.

cue ziocons for some insider info...

shortonoil new game Thu, 07/26/2018 - 08:37 Permalink

The US has 1.7 million operating shale wells. Over the next five years 1.4 million of those wells will have to be replaced to keep production constant. The decline rate for the average shale well is 89% over its first five years. At an average replacement cost of $4.4 million per well the total cost of replacing 1.4 million wells will be $6.2 trillion. The total cost of all the petroleum products consumed by the US over the next five years will approximately $2.5 trillion.

To keep the shale industry alive over the next five years it will cost the US economy 2.5 times as much as it will spend on all the petroleum products it will consume. Expect a massive dislocation in the petroleum industry in the very near future!

In reply to by new game

SRSrocco KrazyUncle Thu, 07/26/2018 - 11:12 Permalink


First... I don't trust Continental Resources figures, but I can't get into that yet... long story.  Second, EOG is spending twice as much as most shale players on CapEx per quarter and are making some free cash flow.  However, EOG also paid $97 million in dividends Q1 2018.  So, if we subtract out their dividend payouts, EOG only netted $14 million after spending $1.4 billion in Capex during Q1 2018.

Lastly, Whiting's oil production is still less than what it was in 2016.  By cutting CapEx spending drastically, from $600 million a quarter two years ago to only $178 million in Q1 2018, they can make some free cash flow.  But, by drastically cutting CapEx spending, Whiting won't be able to increase production to pay back the $2.8 billion in long-term debt that they owe.


In reply to by KrazyUncle

gdpetti SRSrocco Thu, 07/26/2018 - 11:20 Permalink

And this is the same pattern for our govts.... spend more and get less..... the result is inevitable, same with our pumped up markets.... not if, but when.... and it looks to be soon...

Now, Trump wants the EU to buy this gas? It's obviously a very short term deal, or he hasn't looked at the numbers at all... which makes him perfect for his role in the 'out with the OWO, in with the NWO'.

Ponzi scheme is the correct word for this shale industry, same with all of our industries ,as empires all operate this way... pushing off paying the bills till tomorrow, always a new tomorrow... kick that can down the road... the states do it, the fed govt does it... all those not making money do it... and these are the opposite of startups.

In reply to by SRSrocco

MrNoItAll gdpetti Thu, 07/26/2018 - 15:12 Permalink

Buying time. Short and sweet. The mere fact that they are so actively "buying time" with these short-term policies is proof that they are aware time is running out, which leaves one to ponder just exactly "how much" time are they trying to buy, and toward what end. Big plans are in the works I suspect, and the end of "buying time" is rapidly approaching.

In reply to by gdpetti

MK ULTRA Alpha Juggernaut x2 Fri, 07/27/2018 - 06:50 Permalink

There is NOT 1.7 million shale wells operating in the US.

Considering nearly 20% of the American people are on psychotropic medication, a further 10% burned their brains out on a combination of meth and just about everything else, this is what we get.

I cited 600,000 natural gas wells, that's not all shale. Many are old natural gas wells, not in shale fields.

Year old data, from the Washington Post stated 900,000 wells as of Feb 2017.

"There are more than 900,000 active oil and gas wells in the United States, and more than 130,000 have been drilled since 2010."

So this idiot is saying there are 1.7 million shale wells? I guess 800,000 wells were drilled in one year, right?

There is plenty of activity in traditional reservoirs, Shell has punched into a huge find in the Gulf. Native Alaskan owned firms on the North Slope are punching through to the most lucrative finds in decades and loading the TransAlaskan  pipeline.

And huge finds which were restricted before Trump, promise 100% capacity of the TransAlaskan pipeline. The above cited finds and production will eclipse shale in crude production growth.

Shale growth is primarily natural gas. That's why the majors are piling in to shale. The demand growth for natural gas is the driver and no major is spending more money than what they're earning.


In reply to by Juggernaut x2

Radical Marijuana SRSrocco Thu, 07/26/2018 - 13:03 Permalink

"How long can this insanity go on?"

For as long as there are enough natural resources left in the world to be able to strip-mine at about exponentially increasing rates, as enabled by making "money" out of nothing as debts in order to "pay" for doing so, which is a debt slavery system based on the public powers of governments used to back up legalized counterfeiting by private banks, and the big corporations that grew up around those big banks.  The oil extraction corporations operate inside of that overall context where everything they are able to do is based on the degree to which the sources of their funding ultimately depend upon being able to continue enforcing frauds.

It is too good a phrase to use to refer to those aspects of that process as being "Ponzi Schemes," since deceived people voluntarily participated in Ponzi's Scheme. The dominant Pyramid Schemes of Globalized Neolithic Civilization are systems that offered people a deal they could not refuse.

The history of oil can not be separated from the history of war. Within the overall context that money is measurement backed by murder, the funding of the oil industry developed as vicious feedback loops due to being able to enforce frauds, despite that about exponentially advancing technologies were enabling about exponentially increasing fraudulence, with respect to the related about exponentially increasing strip-mining.

"How long can this insanity go on?"

Probably for a relatively long time from the perspective of those who are old and rich, and positioned near the center, toward the top, of the Pyramid Scheme of enforced frauds which achieve symbolic robberies for those people.

Shale oil extraction exemplifies DIMINISHING RETURNS, which applies across everything else that Civilization is doing. "It's amazing the amount of money that needs to be invested just to replace production."  It is more "amazing"  when one goes through the labyrinth of Money As Debt, which is the MADNESS of negative capital, which is able to be publicly presented as if that is still positive capital. While it is abstractly obvious that murder systems are manifestations of general energy systems, there is relatively little public appreciation of those murder systems backing up the money systems.

Around about the 15 minute mark in the video embedded in the article above, some of the reasons for calling shale oil extraction a "Ponzi Scheme" are outlined, including "Ponzi Stock Finance," which are secondary mechanisms where the MAD Money As Debt travels from its original source ex nihilo  through other investors, before going into the shale oil industry. The underlying issues related to DIMINISHING RETURNS will manifest first and foremost through the fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems which almost totally dominant Globalized Neolithic Civilization.

"How long can this insanity go on?"

Until those runaway debt insanities provoke sufficient runaway death insanities to cause series of crazy collapses which result in whatever systems of organized crime could continue to operate after the consequences of DIMINISHING RETURNS have worked their way through. Since it is barely possible to exaggerate the degree to which negative extraction  was presented as if that was positive production, it is also barely possible to exaggerate the degree of psychotic breakdowns that will manifest when runaway enforced frauds finally have their about exponentially increasing fraudulence go past their tipping points.

The USA became the most important component in Globalized Neolithic Civilization. The USA has led the way into the development of globalized monkey money frauds, backed by the threat of force from apes with atomic bombs, whose lives still mostly became dependent upon the chemical energy in petroleum resources. The USA, therefore, also led the way to the development of shale oil extraction, while that continued to be publicly presented as if that was production.

At the present time, and for the foreseeable finite future, it is politically impossible for human beings living inside of the dominant Civilization to better understand themselves as manifestations of general energy systems. Instead, almost everyone who is adapted to living inside that Civilization has developed ways to present what they are actually doing in the most dishonest and absurdly backward ways possible.

Extracting more and more expensive petroleum resources is merely one of the leading symbols of what is happening everywhere else one looks. That Civilization is almost totally based on being able to back up legalized lies with legalized violence continues to be socially successful to the degree that most people do not understand that, because they have been conditioned to not want to understand that being able to back up lies with violence never stops those lies from still being fundamentally false.

THAT  was the source of the "insanity."  It is too optimistic to expect that will not continue, despite series of collapses into crazy chaos, and the related series of psychotic breakdowns. Whatever civilization survives will continue to operate according to the principles and methods of organized crime, which will continue to have the related corollaries that the apparent successfulness of those organized crimes will depend upon most people not wanting to understand what is actually happening.

Theoretically, enough people "should" better understand themselves as manifestations of energy systems, which would then include their perceptions of the ways that they lived as nested toroidal vortices engaged in entropic pumping of environmental energy sources. That is made even more theoretically imperative to the degree that some people have better understood some energy systems.

However, throughout everything that operates through Pyramid Schemes, for those to continue requires that the pyramidion people do everything they can to make sure that those lower down in those Pyramid Schemes do not understand that those Pyramids are actually NESTED TOROIDAL VORTICES. At the present time, and in the foreseeable finite future, the dominant Civilization will continue intensifying its paradoxical Grand Canyon Contradictions that physical science makes prodigious progress in understanding some energy systems, while political science makes no similar progress in understanding human energy systems, except to the degree that human systems are thereby enabled to become about exponentially more dishonest.

Fracking symbolizes advancing physical technologies, channeled through financial systems which only "advance" by becoming about exponentially more fraudulent. Since almost everything Civilization is doing has become based on that exponentially increasing fraudulence, which in turn is based on exponentially increasing strip-mining, it is politically impossible for that Civilization to stop that "insanity"  other than by driving itself some series of psychotic breakdowns.

That "lousy shale oil economics will pull down the U.S economy"  is only one of the more and more painfully obviously tips of the immense icebergs of enforced frauds, whose own exponentially increasing fraudulences are melting themselves. (In that context it is old-fashioned nonsense that possessing precious metals is a somewhat saner "solution" to the runaway criminal "insanity"   of Civilization.)

In reply to by SRSrocco

Radical Marijuana KashNCarry Thu, 07/26/2018 - 15:30 Permalink

Thanks, KashNCarry, I believe I have now fixed those spelling mistakes.


Both alcohol and pot prohibitions were implemented partially due to those prohibitions increasing the profits from petroleum based industries. While it may have been theoretically possible for industrialization to develop more sustainable industries, the history of warfare, including class warfare, made sure that petroleum resources were developed in the most unsustainable ways possible, with fracking insanities becoming an extension of those patterns of social facts.

In reply to by KashNCarry

RationalLuddite Radical Marijuana Fri, 07/27/2018 - 13:32 Permalink

- money is measurement backed by murder

- perceptions of the ways that they lived as nested toroidal vortices engaged in entropic pumping of environmental energy sources.

- Pyramid Schemes do not understand that those Pyramids are actually NESTED TOROIDAL VORTICES

- which is a debt slavery system based on the public powers of governments used to back up legalized counterfeiting by private banks, and the big corporations that grew up around those big banks.

- The USA has led the way into the development of globalized monkey money frauds, backed by the threat of force from apes with atomic bombs

- Civilization is almost totally based on being able to back up legalized lies (I would say axiomatic assumptions , metaphysical beliefs, but i nit pick) with legalized violence

- murder systems are manifestations of general energy systems


Simply Brilliant RM. Brilliant,  as usual. 

EDIT : Your Nested Toroidal Vortices with entropic pumping has echoes of Jordan Peterson's (love him and hate him) brilliant metaphor:

the naive young you is like a little piece of flotsam on an ocean of complexity. That ocean of complexity is you.

(And) diving down into the depths is the start of trying to understand what it means to be human.

In reply to by Radical Marijuana

Radical Marijuana RationalLuddite Fri, 07/27/2018 - 15:56 Permalink

Thanks, RationalLuddite!

"The naive young"  me was relatively idealistic and optimistic. Back then, I used to believe it was possible to make conditions become better. In middle age that transformed into believing that it would be possible to slow down how fast conditions got worse, and so those conditions would not get as bad as those otherwise would. In old age I no longer have any rational hope left. While I do NOT expect that the laws of nature are going to ever stop working, and therefore, nothing that depends upon those laws of nature will stop, I have become convinced that Globalized Neolithic Civilization, as based on fraudulent finance strip-mining the planet, must continue to get worse, faster, while there is nothing practically possible to either prevent that from happening, nor to effectively prepare for the magnitude of that happening.



Thanks for the video link. Although I had not watched that before, it felt like I had heard that voice somewhere before.

In reply to by RationalLuddite

AGuy shortonoil Thu, 07/26/2018 - 16:48 Permalink

"At an average replacement cost of $4.4 million per well the total cost of replacing 1.4 million wells will be $6.2 trillion. "

I think your math is way off, To To date, Shale spent about $500B to $750B drilling & operating those 1.7M wells. That said, Shale drillers borrowed about $400B, Its unlikely they'll find more Suckers^H^H^H^H investors to borrow another $400B. Plus they are running out of sweet spots to drill in Bakken & Eagle Ford. I believe currently the only remaining sweet spot they can develop is the Permian Basin. Plus the debt coupon on the borrowed money start coming due between 2019-2023 (They need to roll that debt over).

In reply to by shortonoil

arrowrod Thu, 07/26/2018 - 07:06 Permalink

Frackers are really dumb.  They can't refracture the wells.  As soon as their wells run dry, it's game over.

Financial guys are really smart.  They make pronouncements from their desk.  They are never wrong.

I'm going back under my bed and work on my Zombie apocalypse cookbook.  On sale soon.

shortonoil arrowrod Thu, 07/26/2018 - 09:09 Permalink

"Frackers are really dumb. They can't refracture the wells."

They can re-frack their wells, but the yield is abysmally low; so it is rarely attempted. Re-fracking produces very little additional oil. Most of what is produced from refracking is gas, which is a low revenue product. It is, by far, more cost effective to just drill a new well.

In reply to by arrowrod

MK ULTRA Alpha shortonoil Fri, 07/27/2018 - 06:21 Permalink

Not one word from the source you've cited supported what you wrote.

Re-Fracking is SOP, old wells are reworked all the time. It was a big story in Texas when old wells with depleted reservoirs were re-fracked, LOL the honey oil flowed, the natural gas wells which were supposedly depleted flowed.

It's typical of old time ZH posters particularly the 7 year group to pull this crap. Over and over I've seen the delusion for political purpose on these boards.

Not one thing you've written is true

In reply to by shortonoil