Stocks, Bonds, Dollar Gain As US Macro Plunges To 11-Month Lows

Everything was going so great - Apple etc... - and then China ruined the party and payrolls disappointed...

An ugly week for US macro data (tumbling to its most disappointing in 11 months) did nothing to stall hopes for economic growth...

Or faith in the US plunge protection team...

 

And, despite today's spike, yuan ended lower for the 8th week in a row (and 14th of the last 16 weeks) as China-US trade tensions escalated further...

 

As Chinese stock cratered...

 

European stocks were unhappy too...

 

But USA USA USA was positive - even The Dow managed to get back to 'even'... as Trannies outperformed...

 

It seems 'Murica is winning the trade war - or the equity algos are anyway...

 

VIX closed the week with an 11 handle - because there's nothing to fear but fear itself (oh and currency-, trade-, and potential kinetic-war)...

 

AAPL managed to hold on to its trillion-dollar market cap...

 

Big week for TSLA as it squeezed higher again... but bonds faded today...

 

Nasdaq bounced perfectly off its 50DMA...

 

FANG Stocks ended the week lower (despite Nasdaq gains)...

 

Treasury yields were broadly lower on the week (thanks to a heavy bid today) but 30Y ended higher (in yield)...

 

The yield curve steepened on the week

 

10Y briefly topped 3.00% (China?) early in the week, before pushing back lower (note the same level on Fed day in June)... so now do we plunge back to the other end of the range?

 

Remember, bond positioning has never been more short.

 

The Dollar ended the week higher, but found resistance in the middle of ECB-day spike range...

 

Turkish Lira was the week's biggest loser, puking above 5.00/USD for the first time ever...

 

Cryptos were ugly all week... just leg down after leg down...

 

Worst week for Bitcoin in two months, back below $8,000...

 Ethereum found support relative to Bitcoin once again at the 2017 year-end close...

 

Commodities rallied today but ended the week lower overall...

 

Finally, we note that China's stock market capitalization has slumped to its lowest relative to the world since 2014 and a critical point of support/resistance...

Does this mean Trump is winning?

Comments

Fantasy Free E… Fri, 08/03/2018 - 16:06 Permalink

For next week I am thinking little to no organized support on Monday and all indexes to fall. First try and draw in some shorts. Then alternate supporting one average each day while letting each of the others fall a little. Fake weakness throughout the week and then squeeze them all toward the end of the week. All the while focus will be on Sept 1 and the beginning of seasonal weakness. I am betting for that time period we will have the greatest amount of organized support in history.

The buyback money will be running out so look for another governmental gift to the corporate sector to keep the buybacks rolling. Based on prior behavior, that should be the pattern.

http://quillian.net/blog/economics-by-force-2/