Brexit – Will The EU Collapse Anyway?

Via TruePublica.org.uk,

It is impossible for anyone who even occasionally visits the news to ignore just how dramatically the world has changed in the last 10 years. The epicentre of the crumbling world order that we have all known was the global financial crisis. It literally shook the foundations of the Western world and the institutions that upheld it – and today they are now falling down one by one. Will the European Union be one of them as its own existential threats continue to mount?

Political systems such as democracy are now known to be failing the world over to some degree or another and all of a sudden, many of us have started to wonder about a world without those structures we took so much for granted. Unfortunately, others have embraced this new found fragility more eagerly than others and with frightening consequences.

It, therefore, should come as little surprise that the past decade has been assessed as a period defined by systemic dysfunction and political change. As we enter the next decade this dysfunction will characterize the momentum of a decade’s worth of disruption and one regional area of change will undoubtedly be the European Union.

There is no point in researching for material in this article with the assistance of the hatemongering MSM rags typified by the likes of the Daily Mail, Express, Telegraph et al. We have looked at many articles, periodicals and predictions – and there has been for some time a growing belief amongst many in the financial and geopolitical environments that the future prospects of the European Union is at best ‘challenging’ but more likely dismal.

In March 2017, TruePublica published a prediction of the near future in “New World Disorder” – an article that took the view there were substantial changes to some of the world’s normally stable institutions and political systems. As for the EU, we wrote:

“With Britain’s recent EU referendum result came the realisation that the rules-based system on the continent had failed. Rising discontent is gathering at an unstoppable pace, much to the alarm of the ruling elite. A federalised state dreamt up by America and handed to Germany with the intention of destroying national identities, borders and sovereign rights are slowly turning into a nightmare as the 28 nation bloc enters what can only be described as a disintegration phase. In the meantime, the EU intends to make it a mistake that the British will regret and fall to their knees.”

At this precise moment, the EU is united in this approach and Britain is indeed preparing to fall to its knees. However, the truth for the future of the EU is not just about Britain where its own prospects look far worse than even some of the most pessimistic had predicted.

A document leaked to Germany’s Der Spiegel last year revealed that the German defence ministry set out what it saw as its worst-case scenario for the year 2040. In it, they predicted that:

“EU enlargement has been largely abandoned, and more states have left the community … the increasingly disorderly, sometimes chaotic and conflict-prone, world has dramatically changed the security environment.”

Der Spiegel went on to say that: 

“The journalists to whom the document was leaked have omitted any details of what Germany is planning to do about the EU’s possible collapse and fragmentation.”

That the document exists at all is a sign of the increased tension in the global system, especially within the EU. What is alarming is that within the report, even this scenario is already regarded as ‘over-optimistic.’ The belief from within the German establishment is clear – that the EU will quite simply not survive.

Just a month ago, Politico.eu reported that the French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire said that Europe is in “a state of decomposition – it’s falling apart before our eyes” – he said. And typical of the general theme in this article, Le Maire spelt it out: “member countries are closing in on themselves, trying to find national solutions.”  Various meetings have since been held between the French and German finance ministers and the reality is that they (and therefore their governments) do not see eye-to-eye. In fact, Macron’s proposals have been flatly rejected, not just by the German political elite but by the electorate.

Business Insider reported back in May that Billionaire investor George Soros publicly stated that Europe is in the midst of an “existential crisis” and it is at genuine risk of ceasing to exist as we currently know it.

Soros effectively argues that some in the bloc have moved so far away from its founding goals that the EU can no longer sustain itself in its current state.

“There is no longer any point in ignoring the reality that a number of European Union member countries have explicitly rejected the EU’s goal of “ever closer union.”

And Soros, like so many, predicts the fracturing of Europe, but not necessarily a collapse. “Instead of a multi-speed Europe, the goal should be a ‘multi-track Europe’ that allows member states a wider variety of choices. This would have a far-reaching beneficial effect.” Since his assertions back in May, just three months ago, the EU project has declined further as populism, protectionism and isolationism has become ever more prevalent in more EU member states.

The London School of Economics recently published an article by European Politics and Policy. Its view is similar in content to many economic forecasts. It concludes that partial exits by individual member states would sap the EU from within. Rather than experiencing a sudden collapse, the EU would instead sink slowly into oblivion.

“the EU might instead suffer a slow decline driven by ‘partial exits’ from aspects of European integration. The best-case scenario may be one in which the EU continues to limp ahead in the years to come, but with many members rather grudgingly accepting it as the least unattractive option.”

Geopolitical Futures is an organisation that charts the course of the international geopolitical system and has accurately predicted the crisis in the EU, the economic decline of China and the re-emergence of Russia. Their view is one of continued erosion of the entire EU project.

Virtually no country will be left untouched by the rising social, political, cultural and economic tensions throughout the (European) Continent. But under this continued instability will lurk a perhaps more troubling development: Germany, concerned with the EU’s disintegration and anxious about the economic calamity it could portend, is going to have to work harder to keep the bloc together.

GF takes the view that the writing in on the wall for the EU. It is suffering from multiple structural problems the elite have fundamentally failed to recognise or deal with effectively.

Europe’s problem is no longer primarily its economy – it is a crisis of trust. The European middle and lower classes have lost faith in the elite’s ability to effectively manage the economy and to understand the cultural tensions that have emerged. Large segments of the population will be disaffected by economic inequality, and there will be little the EU can do about it.

The consequence is the GF forecasts that trust, not just amongst people but amongst EU nations will continue to erode and that friction between them is inevitable.

“What we can say is that our forecast for Europe is one of continuity: National and regional movements will continue to erode the social, political and economic systems in Europe.” 

Don’t forget, this prediction is for this year only and has so far been right on the button.

CapX monitors thousands of news sources, blogs, academic papers and think-tank publications to find the most important facts and trends. Their view is just as grim.

“The common thread across all these stalled attempts at eurozone reform is a reluctance on the part of national authorities to pursue genuinely European solutions. What this means in practice is that if and when a new crisis comes, there will be no common European response. Individual eurozone countries will be largely left to fend for themselves while EU leaders, as in the last crisis, seek to make decisions largely on the hoof. The question now is for how long eurozone leaders can get away with it? And the answer is not, perhaps, for much longer. A scan of the horizon suggests it is all too possible to identify the triggers for what could quickly become a eurozone and wider EU collapse.”

That ‘scan’ takes the view that some things are indeed predictable and inevitable and CapX says that the threats highlighted are quite broad but identified currently as; the decline of the Chinese economy, the growing threat of trade wars, current bank indebtedness and sovereign debt. Any one of these structural issues could lead to a major recession. This time, however, the EU would not be able to withstand the economic shock. CapX, a global financial specialist believes the Euro will bring down Europe. And it concludes:

“Brexit was a mere footnote in a much more fundamental period of European upheaval. British negotiators may strain every sinew to get a deal, only to discover the entity they’ve agreed it with soon no longer exists.”

Then there are those who physically backed Brexit with their money on the basis that the European Union was not going to survive.

Jim Mellon stood out among investors in 2016 as a public backer of Britain’s exit from the European Union. And the chairman of the Burnbrae Group forecasted another breakup. Mellon predicts the euro will become a future casualty of a rising anti-establishment tide, causing the currency union to splinter within the next five years.

“Brexit is going to be a sideshow to the problems of Europe that are becoming more and more evident,” Mellon said. “The euro as it stands at the moment is just a very inappropriate mechanism — I give the euro between one and five years of life.”

At this point, there are so many more pieces of evidence, heaps of opinion and predictions as to the demise of the EU. The fact is that the EU27 is indeed going through existential challenges.

This has been brought about through the common themes that cause political change everywhere.

The failure of neoliberal capitalism in Europe is the same reason why we have Trump in America, Brexit and a quarter of EU member states supporting right-wing populists. Immigration and the terrorism it imports is a serious concern amongst the people of the EU. Corporatism, corruption, economic stagnation, a doomed currency, the threat of a calamitous recession are all serious threats as well. But by far, the biggest threat is the electorate themselves who have proved time and time again that they don’t like the fact that the EU is undemocratic.

Any single one of these threats is an existential one and the likelihood of one of them happening is very high indeed and Britain could then be well placed to profit from the disorder that brings!

Comments

roea.rita Wed, 08/08/2018 - 02:04 Permalink

 

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Luc X. Ifer Bulgars Wed, 08/08/2018 - 06:40 Permalink

There is no unity in diversity and ideology. Unity emerges only from cultural homogeneity and social leadership driven solely by the interests of the culturaly homogeneous social enclave - the opposite we see now was defined before the era of forced globalization and political correctness as treason and punished dearly. So, the one having a wet dream is u.

In reply to by Bulgars

SocratesSolutions A Sentinel Wed, 08/08/2018 - 04:52 Permalink

No need to hope. The EU = Rothschild Zionism. 

Rothschild Zionism = Thanos (for you Marvel fans.)  

This is already underway. 'Thanatos' means death. It comes from our old Greek Gods. And this is exactly what will happen. Rothschild Zionism will pass away. It is already dead even now in fact. Watch. The world is destined to thrive in freedom under World Law once the Zionist death cult, the black plague of humanity, is permanently removed. 

In reply to by A Sentinel

lock-stick Adolfsteinbergovitch Wed, 08/08/2018 - 02:31 Permalink

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....and all the while, the pathetic little SPAMMER sits in his leaky, moldy, smelly single wide in Western New York, surrounded by garbage and dirty clothes, trying to find his dick amidst rolls of fat, talking to his ACTION FIGURES and wondering where his life went.

 

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In reply to by Adolfsteinbergovitch

JRobby Adolfsteinbergovitch Wed, 08/08/2018 - 08:47 Permalink

"A rules based system on "the continent" has failed"

(Laugh Track Deafening !!!)

Need more police, military and weapons to institute and maintain a "rules based system".

Creating conditions for a stable middle class used to be the goal 40 years ago. Now it is about moving migrants from war torn profit centers to the previously middle class areas and giving them money to consume your products.

Sound policy if full lockdown of society after culling population by 65% is the medium term goal. Otherwise, you run short of money.

In reply to by Adolfsteinbergovitch

steaua 07564111 Wed, 08/08/2018 - 04:34 Permalink

Bingo, for some it would be great for the EU to be dismantled, but not for all. My bet is that if EU is dismantled, the countries will go back to something similar to the 80's : dirt poor run by juntas (Greece), poor and run by mafia (Italy), licking their wounds after civil war(Spain), dirt poor (Portugal), communist and dirt poor - well about the whole central and east.

The winners seem to be the nordic countries, France, Benelux & Germany. The problem is that these countries have managed to import a load of low-IQ lazy people, so the future is not so rose for them as well.

In reply to by 07564111

Ace006 steaua Wed, 08/08/2018 - 22:46 Permalink

The number one political principle in every nation is Don't subsidize parasites and anti-social people.  That's exactly what all Western nations do,  of course, but all that means us every one will suffer the consequences sooner or later.  Repeat.  Sooner or later.  Those who want to import third-worlders and/or go full retard by going commie can just be first over the cliff. Until tgat first principle is adopted it's everybody tits up.  Just a variation on the deal about voting money out of the treasury. 

Mafia or non-mafia government.  Same same.  

In reply to by steaua

JIMSJOE2 07564111 Wed, 08/08/2018 - 07:03 Permalink

The article is about 10 years behind the times and the German forecast of 2040 is also off 20 years. I have commented before that Armstrong Economics computer models forecast in 2009 that Europe is beginning to collapse and capital will begin to flow out and move into dollars and dollar based assets. This was forecast when the Dow was around 6000 and the forecast was 22.000 first then 23,000 then finally during the last leg of the collapse around 40.000. The forecast is as we move to the end of 2018 capital flight again accelerates out and the shit hits the fan around 2020/21. The euro is expected not to last beyond 2021. Capital started to really move in 2011 and caused dollar strength and the Dow breaking record after record all due to capital flight.  Draghi has destroyed the bond markets, both sovereign and corporate by going to negative rates and by either buying or guaranteeing debt. If they keep buying, the euro collapsing faster. If they stop, rates will spike and the whole thing collapses faster. This is why Draghi can do nothing but talk without actually doing anything. Banks in the EU opened up branches in the US when the ECB started to charge banks to park capital. They have been simply parking capital at the FED and also lending here in the US instead of Europe which is the opposite of what Draghi wanted. To say his policies have failed is a huge understatement. The EU, euro, most banks in Europe and countries will not survive in their present form. The clients of AE have been positioning for this fall.

    It is interesting to note that in the 80's when the strong dollar was causing problems and the Plaza Accord meeting was called to address it, before the meeting US officials met with Martin Armstrong and asked how do we remove the dollar as THE world's reserve currency so it can weaken? They were told they cannot as there is nothing to replace it. The US solution at the meeting was to have Europe go to a single currency. European officials met with Armstrong afterward and told told them it would eventually collapse for a number of reasons. One is they have no federalized bond market backed by all member countries which means treasuries are the only game in town. Two, a one size fits all with so many different economies means many would have to take on massive debt loads because they have lost control of strengthening or weakening the currency as needed. This is exactly what has happened especially with the PIGS. There is no way out except to completely default on sovereign debt bankrupting the ECB and many of the countries. They can print all they want but if no ones wants euros for international trade they are screwed.

     It is also interesting that the EU when Armstrong and staff were in Europe some months back holding emergency meetings with clients EU officials ask for an urgent meeting. They were told the collapse cannot be stopped only how hard it falls. Brussels responded by announcing a 25% increase in member fees, wanting a tax on all financial transactions and being able to tax directly all EU citizens and businesses. Then Juncker and Macron came out and wants all debts to be consolidated and guaranteed by all members. Now the latest is that Brussels wants a centralized budget for all of the EU members controlled by them bypassing all member governments. This only shows how desperate Europe has become.

    Spain's pension fund runs out completely at the end of 2018, the EU pension fund for bureaucrats is running out, almost all French cities are broke from migrant costs, over 50% of all German cities are broke from these same costs and the German health minister announced a 3 billion euro deficit all due to the migrants. These are no isolated cases but is happening all over the countries in the EU.

   Now if you control large amounts of capital are you really going to park it in any EU bank? Italian and Spanish sovereign debt? Negative German bunds? Corporate debt with no market? A currency which is expected to completely collapse? Folks there is no place left but dollars and dollar based assets! This is why we are going to see massive dollar strength and the Dow moving much higher as capital is simply parked in dollar based assets!

   

In reply to by 07564111

chubbar JIMSJOE2 Wed, 08/08/2018 - 08:02 Permalink

Good commentary. 2 points/questions. 1). Why the insistence on millions of immigrants that don't assimilate, suck up huge amounts of budget money and are tearing apart the social fabric? If the EU were concerned about staying unified, you wouldn't think they'd lob a fucking muslim grenade into the problem.

2). Given the timeline for the US presidential election along with the various other monetary issues, some similar to the EU, the reset either has to come after the midterms or after the next presidential election, assuming they are not completely suicidal and are going to attempt to manage this reset instead of just letting it happen. Now, after the presidential election, if they can delay it that long, would be ideal but from watching many of the economic indicators I'd be surprised if they can delay it that long.

 

In reply to by JIMSJOE2

Terratrader chubbar Wed, 08/08/2018 - 10:03 Permalink

The answer to number one is ideology (read 'foolishness') and decline of births throughout Europe which will eventually reduce GDP due to economic decline. And that would mean in time they would not be able to pay their debt  and move to bankruptcy. The thing is it is bankruptcy either way. The EU is doomed.

As for number two I don't see a reset in the US within the next ten years. Unless you mean total monetary reform but the US will come out as the winner without a doubt. You can hate Trump but he is building an economic wall against disaster. It will not hold off all the damage but it will resist the most.

In reply to by chubbar

French Bloke JIMSJOE2 Wed, 08/08/2018 - 14:18 Permalink

I'm sorry but your assumptions are based on a "Dollar is King" scenario. Meaningless in the new Petro Yuan (backed by Gold) world where more and more folks bypass the USD. In western spheres it may look good on paper but what's it matter if the DJIA is at an all time high when everyone outside of the west is looking at the least poor fish in the bowl?

In reply to by JIMSJOE2

Terminaldude 07564111 Wed, 08/08/2018 - 08:13 Permalink

The article mentions, "Democracies are failing all over the Western world", but I say, we haven't lived in a DEMOCRACY for years (if ever).

We have been lied to by our Politicians and hidden Governments for ten's of years as they slowly have bled us dry, and we are finally seeing the fruit of their labour.

It is time to go back to True Democratic Governance and hold the people elected to task for what they do. 

We hear of Politicians and Government workers breaking "Our" laws all the time, yet NOTHING HAPPENS.  That is Not a democracy Period. 

No BS can cover the basic truth.

Bring it on I say, and lets clean the house of these despicable Psychopaths.

 

In reply to by 07564111

LetThemEatRand Wed, 08/08/2018 - 02:06 Permalink

There is a reason that even Nigel still calls England the "United Kingdom."  You know, that libertarian you guys like.  United.  Kingdom.

"The same applies in my country, the United Kingdom, too." -Nigel, Zero Hedge, earlier tonight.

Brexit. Will of the voters.  How quaint.

LetThemEatRand A Sentinel Wed, 08/08/2018 - 02:42 Permalink

Kingdom.  Think it through.  That which is ruled by a King.  A country which calls itself a "Kingdom."  And a libertarian political pundit who sees no irony in calling his beloved country the United Kingdom.  Now return your seat and your tray table to their full, upright position, and go to the terminal for your final destination.   

In reply to by A Sentinel

Thoresen LetThemEatRand Wed, 08/08/2018 - 03:08 Permalink

Almost no one in England refers to themselves as English or living in England: but Americans often refer to England.... which must be a hangover from the 17th century. In England people refer to themselves as either being from the U.K. (without thinking about this meaning the United Kingdom) or being British. Being British is not straightforward either. Since Irish independence, the Irish have made a point of referring to themselves as Irish, but the rest of the British Isles as British. If the Scots and Welsh were to become independent, would that leave just the English as British?

Nigel Farage gives not a second thought about the monarchy when he refers to the UK. Everyone in England just thinks of themselves as being in the UK or being British. 

In reply to by LetThemEatRand

kellys_eye Thoresen Wed, 08/08/2018 - 03:55 Permalink

Wrong - MANY in England refer to themselves as English - but it is frown upon at all levels of Government.  I once stated on an immigration form that I was 'English' only to have 'them' erase it an put British.  I did it again (on another journey) and put Scottish - which WAS permitted.

National identity in the UK is actively promoted unless you're English - where you are denied your own Parliament, have your flag flying objected to and any reference to being English is disparaged by authority.

Scottish or Welsh?  No such issues.

In reply to by Thoresen

Byte Me LetThemEatRand Wed, 08/08/2018 - 04:02 Permalink

" Kingdom.  Think it through.  That which is ruled by a King.  A country which calls itself a "Kingdom."  And a libertarian political pundit who sees no irony in calling his beloved country the United Kingdom.  Now return your seat and your tray table to their full, upright position, and go to the terminal for your final destination.  "

@LTER

By this logic the UK's name (which is just a name) should actually be the UQ (United Queendom)

But it doesn't work like that. "Kingdoms" are named this way for historical reasons.

Names are just reference labels. Otherwise, explain

  1. Democratic People's Republic of Korea
  2. Democratic Republic of the Congo
  3. Republic of the Congo

Just labels.

In reply to by LetThemEatRand

ukipboy Wed, 08/08/2018 - 02:15 Permalink

The EU is founded on a total lack of democratic accountability. The Euro is fundamentally flawed because each member state issues its own debt and the price differentials (now suppressed by the ECB) will tear the currency apart. With the wave of refugees coming from Africa and the Middle East, there will be wholesale collapse of the EU. I would say good riddance but many people will die as a result.

kellys_eye ukipboy Wed, 08/08/2018 - 03:57 Permalink

The EU is founded on a total lack of democratic accountability.

In a nutshell.

No-one knows what they want better than the people who want it.  No-one likes to be TOLD (or worse still, MADE) to do what someone else thinks is 'better for them'.  We are all adults who know that if we are left to our own devices we will survive much better than under the oppression of any form of 'control'.

The obvious exception being, of course, marriage......

In reply to by ukipboy

Singelguy ukipboy Wed, 08/08/2018 - 05:25 Permalink

Correct on all points. The price differentials being suppressed by the ECB are a result of the ECB’s massive QE program which has made the ECB the sole market for EU sovereign debt. As soon as Draghi stops the QE (which is supposedly next summer just before his term ends), there will be no other buyers and interest rates will spike significantly which will drive the EU into recession. That will be the first of many dominoes to fall.

In reply to by ukipboy