Recently even CNN has been forced to admit (begrudgingly) that President Trump "deserves at least some credit" for the contemporary economic boom in the US. And the president, of course, hasn't been shy about giving himself credit (where credit is due, at least for now, even if it comes at the expense of a soaring budget deficit).
So it's hardly surprising that, three days after the BLS reported the the 94th-straight month of labor-market expansion, Trump is once again indulging his fondness for tweeting out positive economic data: on Monday morning, the president tweeted that the growth rate for US GDP eclipsed the unemployment rate for the first time in 100 years during the second quarter.
Trump went on to slam Democrats, Watergate reporter "Bob Woodward" and everyone who has claimed that the West Wing is in a state of chaos - to which Trump replied that things are running smoothly and the administration is continuing its groundbreaking work.
"The GDP Rate (4.2%) is higher than the Unemployment Rate (3.9%) for the first time in over 100 years!," Trump tweeted early on Monday.
The GDP Rate (4.2%) is higher than the Unemployment Rate (3.9%) for the first time in over 100 years!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 10, 2018
Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, wouldn't have been nearly as successful because she would have continued the anti-business policies of the Obama administration the president claimed, arguing that he "opened up our beautiful economic engine" with "regulation and tax cuts" and added that there's "still plenty to do!"
If the Democrats had won the Election in 2016, GDP, which was about 1% and going down, would have been minus 4% instead of up 4.2%. I opened up our beautiful economic engine with Regulation and Tax Cuts. Our system was choking and would have been made worse. Still plenty to do!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 10, 2018
That said, there is just one problem with Trump's claim: it's not true, as Sven Henrich of @NorthmanTrader swiftly pointed out: GDP growth eclipsed the unemployment rate on several occasions, most recently in the early 2000s:
The claim is of course false.— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) September 10, 2018
In April 2000 the unemployment rate was 3.8% while GDP was at 5.29%
Incidentally a recession followed soon after. Markets had peaked in March. pic.twitter.com/9SowTeaQWq
...And, more importantly, this isn't always a positive indicator: when GDP growth eclipsed the unemployment rate back in 1968, a recession soon followed.
Also: In 1968 the unemployment rate was 3.5% while GDP was at 5.5%.— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) September 10, 2018
A recession followed soon thereafter as well. pic.twitter.com/TQAyWdjMlo
Trump polished off yet another early morning tweetstorm with another swipe at Watergate reporter Bob Woodward's upcoming book "fear", which he slammed as a "joke" and a work of "fiction" before adding that someday he (or more likely a ghostwriter) would write the "real book".
The Woodward book is a Joke - just another assault against me, in a barrage of assaults, using now disproven unnamed and anonymous sources. Many have already come forward to say the quotes by them, like the book, are fiction. Dems can’t stand losing. I’ll write the real book!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 10, 2018
In response to allegations of chaos in the West Wing by Woodward and the author of the now-infamous anonymous NYT op-ed, Trump insisted that the White House is a "smooth running machine" and that "we are making some of the biggest and important deals in our country's history."
The White House is a “smooth running machine.” We are making some of the biggest and most important deals in our country’s history - with many more to come! The Dems are going crazy!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 10, 2018
And so with markets at all-time highs and unemployment at the lowest level in decades and "overheating", the big question remains: will November's much-hyped "blue wave" more closely resemble a blue trickle? Trump certainly hopes that the sugar high state of the economy will result in a favorable answer...