Kavanaugh's Confirmation Odds Are Suddenly Surging On Prediction Markets

The odds that Brett Kavanaugh will be confirmed to the Supreme Court are suddenly surging, one day ahead of a much anticipated hearing in which Washington, Wall Street and just about everyone else will tune in to hear the SCOTUS candidate and his accuser, Christine Blasey Ford, on Capitol Hill on Thursday.

After tumbling on Sunday to as low as 26 cents, shortly after the New Yorker reported that a second woman had stepped forward with an accusation of sexual misconduct, this time during his college years at Yale University, a “yes” contract now costs as much as 63 cents compared to 39 cents for a “no” bet as of 9 a.m. in New York.

What may have prompted the turnaround?

As we reported yesterday, the fate of Kavanaugh's nomination may rest on the decision made by Maine Senator Susan Collins who is seen as the key swing vote in the nomination process. Then overnight, Bloomberg reported that Collins doesn’t think President Donald Trump’s Supreme Court nominee would overturn the Roe v. Wade decision that legalized abortion because he said he respects precedent. Vanity Fair echoed this and said that "Susan Collins will bite the bullet and support Kavanaugh."

Collins, a Maine Republican who supports abortion rights, said her discussions with Kavanaugh persuaded her that he believes “the concept of precedent is rooted in Article III of the Constitution, and he clearly reveres our Constitution."

Still, Collins said she hasn’t decided whether she’ll vote in favor of confirming Kavanaugh to the court. She’s waiting to make a decision until after hearing testimony at a Thursday Senate Judiciary Committee hearing from a woman who accuses Kavanaugh of sexual assault during high school.

For now, however, at least the online betting market is confident that she will go with "yes", although we still have to see what surprise attorney Michael Avenatti will pull out of his hat, and whether that will meaningfully shift the nomination odds.

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