Core Durable Goods Stagnate But War Spending Surge Saves Headline

After a big surprise jump in August, preliminary durable goods orders for September were expected to drop 1.5% MoM but surprised to the upside with a modest 0.8% rise. However, ex-transports, durable goods orders have stagnated for five months...

Headline looks 'ok'...

 

But Ex-Transports it has gone nowhere...

 

With Capital Goods Orders non-defense, ex-aircraft down for the second month in a row giving us a hint of what is driving the headline - Defense Aircraft new orders surge 119% MoM...

to its highest since 2001...

All hail the military-industrial complex! So what happens if Congress pushes Trump to cut off the Saudis? Recession?