"Tech-Wrecked": Global Stocks, US Futures Plunge As Panic Selling Returns

"The good news is: It’s Friday. The bad news is: everything else."

For traders, Bloomberg's summary of today's early morning action couldn't be more spot on. On the last day of a turbulent week, global market turmoil is back with a vengeance and traders in the US are greeted by another sea of red as stocks in Europe renewed their plunge along with Asian shares and U.S. futures as the tech-wreck returns after poor earnings from tech giants Amazon and Google slammed sentiment one day after a torrid dead cat bounce.

Disappointing Amazon and Alphabet results reignited investors’ anxieties about the overwhelming dominance of tech stocks - priced for seemingly unstoppable growth - in this market cycle, as well as peak earnings with e-commerce revenue growth now clearly rolling over. "There’s a huge amount of hot money in the FANG stocks,” said Christopher Peel, chief investment officer at Tavistock Wealth, and now it's clearly going out.

The rosy picture of U.S. indexes finally ending their 6-day losing streak faded very quickly with Asian equities falling again, and after yesterday's solid bounce, S&P futures were trading below the Wednesday session lows with the Nasdaq once again inside correction territory, down over 10% from its September highs.

The MSCI All-Country World Index was down 0.3% after trading began in Europe. It was set for its fifth straight week of losses, its worst losing streak since May 2013. “Expectations for US company earnings are quite high, so whenever they are not being met, the reactions are quite severe,” said Miraji Othman, credit strategist at BayernLB. "We have grown used to solid numbers, 18 percent revenue growth, 25 percent revenue growth and so on. The valuations have become quite ambitious."

“You’re going to see a lot more volatility,” Con Michalakis, chief investment officer at Statewide Super, told Bloomberg TV in Sydney. “It’s going to be a feature of this environment.”

In Europe, Thursday’s rebound proved a brief respite as the Stoxx Europe 600 Index headed for the biggest monthly decline since the US downgrade in August 2011, with all sectors in the red and tracking a decline in U.S. futures after tech stocks Alphabet and Amazon missed results expectations, further sapping risk appetite as European earnings also disappointed with Valeo harshly punished. 

The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 1.6% with Germany's DAX down 1.7% and France's CAC 40 down 2%. Overall the third-quarter earnings season has been marred by rolling sell-offs across global markets and sharp downgrades to earnings estimates.

Three main issues were plaguing European companies overall: rising costs from raw materials and wages, new trade tariffs, and a slowdown in China. Wary analysts were downgrading their earnings estimates for MSCI Europe at their fastest pace since Feb 2016.

Shares in French auto parts maker Valeo sank a record 20% percent after its second profit warning in three months, flagging disruption from tougher European emissions tests and a sharp sales downturn in China. Peer Faurecia also tumbled 7.7% after it announced an agreement to buy Japanese car navigation system maker Clarion from Hitachi. The autos & parts sector index fell 2.3%, the worst performer.

In other disappointing results, Europe’s biggest appliance maker, Electrolux fell 7.3% after it trimmed its market demand expectations and forecast higher costs due to increasing raw material prices and tariffs. Shares in French household appliances maker SEB also fell 9.4 percent, their worst day since 2012, after it cut its revenue guidance due to a “difficult environment” with FX and raw material costs rising. “If on one side the valuation is interesting and the top-line momentum is strong, we... need more visibility on the operating leverage in a more competitive market context,” wrote Equita analysts.

Results from banks were more mixed after more encouraging results from UBS had boosted it in the previous session. Spain’s Banco Sabadell topped the IBEX with a 4.3 percent gain after its third-quarter profit beat expectations. Britain’s RBS meanwhile tumbled 4.5 percent after it warned of economic uncertainty and its profit lagged forecasts

Earlier in the session, Asian shares sank deeper into a bear market, with Japanese stocks sliding more than 5% this week. MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 0.9%, erasing gains made in the opening hour and hitting its lowest level since February 2017. The MSCI Asia index has been bruised by a sell-off in the past several days, and is on course for its fifth weekly loss - its longest losing streak since 2015. It has fallen more than 4% this week amid concerns the global tech bubble has burst.

Over in China, shares were pulled lower and the yuan fell past 6.96 to the dollar, touching its weakest level against the dollar since December 2016, before the National Team stepped in, however despite a solid last hour push, it failed to bring the Shanghai Composite to the green....

... while the tumbling Chinese Yuan suddenly reversed its losses abruptly to trade stronger when at least one big China bank sold the greenback in the afternoon. The big lender’s selling triggered stop-loss by short-sellers of the yuan according to Bloomberg.

Elsewhere, on Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index was 1.1 percent lower, with tech shares dropping 3.13 percent. Tech firms also fell in South Korea, where the broader market slid 1.75 percent. The Kospi had earlier touched its lowest level since December 2016. Australian shares ended flat. Japan’s Nikkei stock index closed 0.4 percent lower, ending the week down 5.98 percent.

Markets remain on edge after more than $6.7 trillion was lost from global equities’ value since late September, as lofty expectations for earnings were tested amid heightened trade tensions and tightening financial conditions. The focus now turns to U.S. GDP, consumer-price and consumption data later Friday amid debate about the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

Emerging markets have suffered the worst monthly losses since May 2012 as increased volatility in the run-up to U.S. midterm elections ended a nascent rebound from a $5.5 trillion sell-off. Currencies were poised for a weekly drop and bond-risk premiums rose. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index declined for the 15th time in 20 trading days this month. Asian emerging markets were the worst performers and were on course for the worst year since the financial crisis. The Thai baht and South Africa’s rand led Friday’s losses among currencies, while Indonesian bonds trailed peers in the local debt markets. October has seen global assets fall in step, a departure from the first nine months of the year when much of the pain was felt in emerging markets amid concerns over the U.S.-China trade war and Federal Reserve tightening. World equities have erased $15 trillion, or 17 percent, of their value since January, with China alone losing $3 trillion

* * *

In currency markets, the euro fell after ECB President Mario Draghi said the bank’s 2.6 trillion-euro ($2.96 trillion) asset purchase program would end this year and interest rates might rise after next summer, despite fears about the monetary union’s economic and political future. The single currency was 0.2% lower at $1.1351.

Stock rout and PBOC comments over restrictions on using support tools for bond financing in some sectors with overcapacity kept the Antipodean and commodities currencies under pressure. The Aussie slipped to a two-year low and the dollar touched its strongest level since June 2017.

Meanwhile, the dollar extended its rally, staying at the highest since June 2017 as risk appetite remained under pressure. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index touched a higher high for an eighth day, the first time in six months; the gauge rose 0.2% to take gains for the week to 0.8%, its best performance since August.

Traders expect a strong reading of U.S. gross domestic product data on Friday, which could see the dollar strengthen."Today’s robust U.S. GDP will illustrate to the market the deep division between the U.S. and the euro zone when it comes to growth performance,” said Commerzbank analyst Thu Lan Nguyen."

Antipodean currencies lead losses in G-10 currencies as sentiment was dented with stocks in the red and after China’s central bank said financing support for some companies will be limited.

The British pound was near seven-week lows against the dollar on Friday and three-week lows against the euro, as doubt grew about whether the UK and the European Union can clinch a Brexit deal. Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, reported on Friday that Brexit talks were on hold because Prime Minister Theresa May’s cabinet was not close enough to agreement on how to proceed.

U.S. Treasury yields fell as equity markets plunged. The 10-year yield fell to 3.0774% percent compared with its U.S. close of 3.136 percent on Thursday. Core European bonds gained and gold rose to a three-month high as the risk-off mood spread.

Oil prices headed for a third weekly loss after Saudi Arabia warned of oversupply and the slump in stock markets and concern about trade clouded the outlook for fuel demand. U.S. crude dipped 1 percent to $66.68 a barrel. Brent crude fell 0.73 percent to $76.33 per barrel.

Expected data include GDP and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Aon, Colgate-Palmolive, Phillips 66, Moody’s and Ventas are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 1.1% to 2,658.25
  • MXAP down 0.4% to 146.26
  • MXAPJ down 0.9% to 461.97
  • Nikkei down 0.4% to 21,184.60
  • Topix down 0.3% to 1,596.01
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.1% to 24,717.63
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 2,598.85
  • Sensex down 0.3% to 33,584.39
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.02% to 5,665.16
  • Kospi down 1.8% to 2,027.15
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1.2% to 350.76
  • German 10Y yield fell 2.8 bps to 0.37%
  • Euro unchanged at $1.1375
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 11.0 bps to 3.12%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.5 bps to 1.582%
  • Brent futures down 0.6% to $76.40/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,236.88
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 96.62

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s Cabinet is not close enough to agreeing a way forward for top level Brexit negotiations to resume, even as time is running short to reach a deal, according to people familiar with the matter. There will almost certainly be no new plan put forward by the British side before next Monday’s budget
  • A no-deal Brexit would mean a difference of 1.6 percentage points to U.K. growth next year
  • Some Bank of Japan officials are comfortable with yields on 10-year government bonds fluctuating further above their zero percent target than the 0.2 percent assumed by many investors, according to people familiar with the matter
  • If Britain leaves the EU without an agreement, reverting to WTO’s most-favored-nation status rules, gross domestic product would increase only 0.3% in 2019, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research said
  • The Italian government could use about EU15b of funds allocated but not spent by previous administration to aid banks if they’re at risk due to holdings of Italian state debt, La Stampa reports, without saying where it got the information
  • Two Federal Reserve officials who vote on rates this year downplayed the effects on the economy of the rough October for U.S. stocks, saying the market turbulence would have to be sustained to alter their outlook for growth
  • China’s forex reserves and stable fundamentals will keep yuan stable, Market News reports, citing Pan Gongsheng, head of State Administration of Foreign Exchange, as saying
  • Australia is on track to ratify a new Pacific trade deal by Nov. 1, the country’s trade minister said, a move that would trigger the first tariff cuts this year in an 11-nation accord that survived an exit by President Donald Trump
  • China’s government has told at least two of its state oil companies to avoid purchasing Iranian oil as the U.S. prepares to impose sanctions on the Persian Gulf state, according to people with knowledge of the matter

Asian stocks were broadly negative as early attempts to nurse the prior day’s sell-off and replicate the rebound seen on Wall St, were thwarted amid Amazon revenue disappointment which weighed across equity futures. ASX 200 (Unch) traded choppy but managed to pare back losses towards the end of the session and Nikkei 225 (-0.4%) failed to hold on to opening gains as the Japanese benchmark gradually deteriorated with earnings dominating news flow. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp. (-0.2%) and Hang Seng (-1.1%) both conformed to downbeat tone, although the mainland briefly outperformed after this week’s substantial liquidity injection and with China also said to be considering additional tax and fee reductions including a VAT adjustment. Finally, 10yr JGBs eventually traded higher amid the widespread risk-averse tone in the region and with BoJ’s present in the market for JPY 1.1tln in 1yr-10yr JGBs.

Top Asian News

  • Chinese $640 Billion Share-Pledge Risk Looms on Banks, Brokers
  • Dealmaker to Tech Stars Has Record Flop After Hong Kong IPO
  • The 1% Mark on Japan Yields Isn’t Enough to Sway Dai-Ichi
  • Some at BOJ Are Said to See 10-Year Yield Limit Higher Than 0.2%
  • Hong Kong’s Bad Run Continues as Tencent Drags for Fourth Day

European stocks are negative across the board in a continuation of the sell-off experienced in Asia overnight and on Wall St.  yesterday. Almost 80% of the Stoxx 600 companies are in the red, while Eurostoxx 50 (-2.0%) flirts around levels last seen in  November 2016, with the biggest losers consisting of German and French heavyweights such as Deutsche Bank (-4.5%), Airbus (- 3.9%) and Total (-3.5%) France’s CAC 40 (-2.3%) underperforms its peers with the index pressured by Valeo (-21.1%) after the company cut revenue guidance for FY 18. Over in Germany, the DAX (-2.0%) is weighed on by index heavyweight BASF (-2.2%) after the company forecasts adjusted EBIT guidance to the lower end of their previously guided range, while Covestro (-5.4%) rests at the foot of the index amid a downgrade at Berenberg. Sectors are experiencing broad-based losses with energy names pressured by price action in the complex and IT names uninspired following a revenue-miss reported by Alphabet (-5.9% pre-market). On the flip side, gainers in the Stoxx 600 are fuelled by earnings with Neste (+7.0%), Fingerprint Cards (+7.0%) and Banco de Sabadell (+4.5%) all higher following their numbers

Top European News

  • Norway Wealth Fund Delivers $21 Billion Return on U.S. Stocks
  • U.K. Bank Regulators Ask EU for Cooperation in Brexit Plans
  • Surging Spreads Prompt More Italy Questions for ECB’s Draghi
  • Draghi Faces Seven-Week ECB Confidence Test on Euro Economy
  • RBS Drops After Making Provision for Brexit-Related Uncertainty

In FX, the DXY trades marginally firmer, extending on gains seen yesterday which pushed the index back above 96.50. Subsequently, EUR/USD remains on a 1.13 handle and below support at 1.1358 with relatively upbeat tones from Draghi yesterday unable to support the multi-bloc currency. Focus today for the EUR (absent of any negative Italian headlines), could well fall upon the slew of option activity with a slew of option expiries due to roll-off at the NY cut; 1.1350 (1.3bln), 1.1375 (1.3bln), 1.1400 (918mln), 1.1450-55 (1.1mln). From a tech perspective, if EUR/USD makes a break of 1.1350 to the downside, focus will turn to the August 16th low at 1.1336. GBP/USD has breached yesterday’s lows in recent trade alongside the aforementioned USD strength, with the latest Brexit-related commentary also bringing markets back to reality. Sources suggest that Brexit talks are on hold as UK PM May's team cannot agree a way forward on how to proceed with negotiations and as such Cable is back below 1.2800. A sustained break below this level could open a test of YTD lows around 1.2660, particularly so, with November’s emergency EU leaders summit far from confirmed.  Once again, focus during Asia-Pac trade continued to focus on the CNY after the PBoC opted to set the fix beyond 6.9500 for the first time since early January 2017. This subsequently prompted selling in high-beta currencies with AUD and NZD feeling the brunt with AUD/USD knocked below Feb 2016 lows of 0.7023. However, prices eventually bottomed out amid comments from the PBoC Vice Governor said the central bank will take necessary and target measures to deal with those who short the CNY; USD/CNY subsequently retreated from 6.9500 to 6.9350. Looking ahead, EM focus could be guided by events in Russia with the CBR due to come to market with their latest policy announcement. After the CBR unexpectedly raised rates by 25bps at its previous policy meeting, the consensus expects the central bank to maintain its one-week auction rate at 7.50%. Analysts at Barclays suggest that September's rate hike has probably done enough to contain the pressure in the RUB and given the still below target inflation and a weak economy.

In commodities, gold is on target to notch a fourth week in the green, marking the yellow metal’s longest set of weekly gains since January; spurred on by ongoing economic constraints and concern over US corporate earnings. Prices continue to extend north of USD 1230/oz, while printing fresh session highs. Copper prices have retreated overnight as the red metal was weighed on by the market’s negative tone, eroding Thursday’s gains from a drop-in inventory. WTI and Brent are both extending losses in excess of a percent with the latter losing the USD 76.00/bbl level, in-fitting with the risk sentiment and signs that global trade is slowing with both container and bulk freight rates dropping, while yesterday’s comments of an upcoming oversupply by Saudi Arabia’s OPEC governor Al-Aama also weighing on prices. Additionally, markets are waiting for today’s Baker Hughes rig count which showed an increase of four operational oil rigs last week.

The key highlights for today are the advance Q3 GDP release for the US and the outcome of S&P's sovereign ratings review for Italy. On the data front, in Europe, we get the ECB’s survey of professional forecasters along with France's September PPI and October consumer confidence. In the US, we get the final University of Michigan October survey results as well as advance Q3 personal consumption, GDP price index and core PCE. Away from data, the ECB's Draghi and Coeure will be speaking at different times. In addition, Total will release its earnings.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 3.3%, prior 4.2%
    • Personal Consumption, est. 3.3%, prior 3.8%
    • Core PCE QoQ, est. 1.8%, prior 2.1%
  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 99, prior 99; Current Conditions, prior 114.4; Expectations, prior 89.1

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

If you joined the financial market as a graduate around about the third week of September you may have been shocked by yesterday’s trading session. Yes US equities can actually go up as well as just down. After 19 down days out of 24 since September 21st for the S&P500, yesterday saw a strong rally in the US as well as in Europe. Before you think it’s safe to come out of hiding though, after the close tepid earnings from Amazon and Google helped erase around half of the gains and that negative momentum has driven the Asian session. The Nikkei (-1.11%), Hang Seng (-1.44%), Shanghai Comp (-0.58%) and Kospi (-2.52%) are all lower along with most Asian markets. Elsewhere futures on S&P 500 (-0.95%) are pointing towards disappointing start.

Before this, the S&P 500, DOW, and NASDAQ ended +1.87%, +1.63%, and +3.35%, respectively. They are all now back into positive territory for the year, but failed to fully retrace their losses from Wednesday’s selloff. The FANG index gained +5.77% – its largest gain since the NYSE started tracking them in 2014 – and are now higher over the last two days, as strong earnings from Twitter boosted sentiment during the New York session.

European bourses also closed higher yesterday to eclipse their Wednesday losses, with the STOXX 600 up +0.51% and the DAX gaining +1.03%. On both sides of the Atlantic, cyclical (tech, materials, consumer discretionary) sectors outperformed safe haven sectors (utilities, consumer staples). The VIX fell -2.2pts but remains somewhat elevated compared to the recent past at 23.1 (24.2 in Asian trading), while Treasuries resumed their selloff. Ten-year yields rose +1.5bps (again reversed overnight though), while the dollar gained +0.19% to close within 0.15pp of its recent high from August.

Corporate earnings were strong yesterday morning, before Google and Amazon both disappointed after hours. First the good news. Twitter reported earnings beating estimates with revenues up +29% yoy (Q3 revenues at $758mn vs. $703mn expected) and earnings beating expectations by +50% (21c vs. 14c expected), despite monthly users falling by 9mn. Twitter shares climbed +15.47%. Freight shipping firm Union Pacific beat expectations, signalling robust US economic activity, while Comcast, Altria, and ConocoPhillips all posted positive results as well. After US markets closed, Amazon and Google both beat profit expectations, with Amazon posting earnings per share of $5.75 versus consensus expectations for $3.11 (a whopping +85% beat) and Google reporting EPS of $13.06 versus expected $10.45 (a +25% beat). Both stocks reported softer-than-expected revenue growth though, missing consensus expectations by -0.9% for Amazon (first back to back miss for 4 years) and -0.4% for Google, and traded down -7.14% and -3.75%, respectively after hours. Another instance of companies being brutally punished for even marginal top-line misses this earnings season.

The market gyrations this week somewhat overshadowed the ECB meeting yesterday, and even with the excitement of recent days and the ongoing Italian saga, Mr Draghi still managed to successfully turn the ECB meeting and press conference into a dull affair. As Mark Wall described it (see report here ), it was a classic “buying time” performance from Mario Draghi - the ECB was treading water at this press conference. They did acknowledged recent weaker-than-expected data, but the full conclusions and ramifications were left until the new forecasts are available in December. Mark still thinks that, based on the data and communications, the hurdle to extend QE is very high, even though they’ve given themselves until the last minute in December to make a final decision.

Reinvestments were not discussed by the ECB Governing Council, but Draghi added during the presser that he would be surprised if the ECB were to use a different concept than the capital key for carrying out reinvestments. On Italy, Mr. Draghi expressed confidence that the EU and Italian government will reach an agreement on the budget. He also quoted the EC Vice President Dombrovskis, who was present at the ECB meeting, saying that we have to respect fiscal rules but the EU is seeking a dialogue with the Italian government.

Continuing with Italy, Italy’s finance ministry denied the Thursday morning report from Italian daily Il Messaggero that Finance Minister Tria is looking at possible budget adjustments for pensions and if needed, adjustments to citizen’s income following the EU’s rejection of the budget plan. Elsewhere, Italian Deputy Premier Di Maio said that the widening of Italian BTP spreads to record levels was on account of concern that the country might leave Euro and was not a reaction to the Italian budget plan. He expects the spreads to narrow over the next few weeks as the Italian government discusses budget plan with the EU officials. Yields on 10y BTPs fell by -11.3bp yesterday.

Later today, we have the result of the S&P rating deliberations on Italy. With Moody’s downgrading the country to the lowest notch of IG (Baa3) but deciding on a stable outlook, it’s tempting to suggest that S&P (BBB currently) will do the same. However there are differences. S&P upgraded Italy only a year ago and, unlike Moody’s, hasn’t recently had a negative outlook. So although the most likely outcome is a downgrade - and justifiable given the recent developments - they may simply change the outlook to negative and wait to see what happens over the coming weeks.

Staying with Europe, our equity strategist Sebastian Raedler has turned tactically positive on European equities. He highlights that after the 10% correction since late July European equities are priced for a sharp growth slowdown. However, he thinks the slowdown is unlikely to materialize, given that: (a) Euro area PMIs are likely to have troughed, as the lagged impact of EUR strength and the roll-over in the inventory cycle start to fade and (b) China PMIs should have upside over the coming months, as the growth boost from the recent monetary easing and RMB weakness outweighs the drag from US tariffs. These macro projections are consistent with a Stoxx 600 fair-value range of 370 to 385 until mid-Q1 next year, 4% to 8% above current levels. His favourite trades are overweight banks, mining & airlines and underweight pharma and real estate.

Elsewhere, on trade, the WSJ reported, citing officials on both sides, that the US is refusing to resume trade negotiations with China until they comes up with a concrete proposal to address US complaints about forced technology transfers and other economic issues. The Chinese Yuan has been pressured this year amid the trade fracas, and drew some attention yesterday when it touched its weakest level of the year at 6.9669. The Yuan has depreciated all year as Chinese monetary policy diverges from the US, and data released yesterday indicated that, in September, Chinese banks bought dollars at the highest pace since June 2017. This could signal a shift in expectations by onshore investors, who want to move ahead of further currency weakness.

In central bank speak, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clardia and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester both downplayed the impact of the recent drop in equity prices on the Fed Policy with Vice Chair Clardia saying that that the fundamentals of the economy are “very, very solid” and Fed’s Mester saying, “while a deeper and more persistent drop in equity markets could dash confidence and lead to a significant pullback in risk-taking and spending, we are far from this scenario.”. Mester also added that she judges growthto be 3% this year and 2.75%-3% in 2019 while highlighting that firms in the Cleveland district are increasingly limited by labor shortages, and she expects unemployment to fall slightly below 3.5% by end-2019. On inflation, she said, “with appropriate adjustments in monetary policy, my outlook is that inflation will remain near 2%.” Both are voting members of the FOMC this year.

US data releases were somewhat soft yesterday, but didn’t change our economists’ expectation for a 3.3% Q3 GDP print today. with preliminary September durable goods orders printing at +0.8% mom (vs. -1.5% mom expected) but excluding transport they came in at +0.1% mom (vs. +0.4% expected). Capital goods orders stood at -0.1% mom (vs. +0.5% mom expected). The latest weekly initial jobless claims came in line with consensus at 215k expected while continuing claims stood at 1,636k (vs. 1,644k expected).  September pending home sales came in at +0.5% mom (vs. 0.0% expected) – the first rise in 3 months which helped S&P homebuilders climb +3.71% after a -26.3% fall from the August local peak and the -39.6% fall since the all-time highs in January. Finally the October Kansas City Fed manufacturing index printed at 8 (vs. 14 expected), its weakest print since December 2016.

Other data releases from yesterday included Germany’s October IFO business confidence, which came in at 102.8 (vs. 103.2 expected). This was a slightly less steep drop compared to yesterday’s PMIs, with the expectations index standing at 99.8 (vs. 100.4 expected) and current conditions at 105.9 (vs. 106.0 expected). Spain’s September PPI came at +0.7% mom (vs. revised +0.4% mom in last month). France’s Q3 total jobseekers stood at 3.46mn (vs. 3.44mn in last quarter).

The key highlights for today are the advance Q3 GDP release for the US and the outcome of S&P's sovereign ratings review for Italy. On the data front, in Europe, we get the ECB’s survey of professional forecasters along with France's September PPI and October consumer confidence. In the US, we get the final University of Michigan October survey results as well as advance Q3 personal consumption, GDP price index and core PCE. Away from data, the ECB's Draghi and Coeure will be speaking at different times. In addition, Total will release its earnings.