Starts, Permits Offer No Hope For Housing's Annus Horribilis

With homebuilder optimism finally collapsing down to the reality of 'hard' housing data, any glimmer of hope is clung to as if it was writ in stone.

But Housing Starts and Permits failed to offer any light at the end of the tunnel.

  • Starts rose 1.5% MoM (missing expectations of a 2.2% rise) after tumbling a revised lower 5.5% MoM in September.

  • Permits fell 0.6% MoM after a revised higher 1.7% rise in September.

Northeast led the rebound in starts but The West was a disaster (Northeast: +21.1% Midwest: +9.4% South -2.4% West -7.9%)

The rise in starts was all rentals (single-family -1.8%, multi-fam +6.3%)

Permits were unimpressive for both single-family (-0.6%) and multi-fam (unch)

The rollover in starts/permits is also concommitant with previous recessions...

And a final reality check...

Fun-durr-mentals matter in the end.

As Bloomberg notes, Starts' plunge to the lowest since May 2017 in the Northeast and declined in the West may also suggest that caps to SALT tax deductions, in addition to mortgage rates at an eight-year high, are contributing to the softness in the housing sector nationally.