Sometimes, in fact quite often, the shortest posts are also the most informative. So we hope that the following three succinct lessons that Bank of America's Chief Investment Strategist said he learned in 2018, are sufficiently self-explanatory to also be educational.
What we learned in 2018…
- That central banks trump everything…when global liquidity peaked in Q1, markets peaked
- That we remain in a deflationary world which cannot handle a 10-year Treasury yield above 3%
- That investors have no satisfactory answers to the existential questions of “If not stocks, what?”, “If not tech, what?”, “If not the US dollar, what?”
Here is one bonus lesson for those eager to trade the his market:
- Sell-the-rip: we wait for Profits & Policy (interest rates) to reset to secular stagnation reality.
And finally, a problem with extra difficulty, which is causing most investors to "lose the plot":
- It is rare for combo of such capitulation out of risk, capitulation into US dollar & Fed dovishness not to spark rally; only reason it would not is fear of “credit event” & “policy impotence.”