With the government finally reopened, this Friday brings the much-watched "data" that The Fed is so dependent on (if you believe them). But today we get a sneak-peek as ADP employment (albeit a notable under-forecaster for 4 of the last 5 months)
The January ADP employment change was +213k (well above the 181k expected but down from a revised lower 263k rise in December).
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market weathered the government shutdown well. Despite the severe disruptions, businesses continued to add aggressively to their payrolls. As long as businesses hire strongly the economic expansion will continue on.”
“The labor market has continued its pattern of strong growth with little sign of a slowdown in sight,“ said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.
“We saw significant growth in nearly all industries, with manufacturing adding the most jobs in more than four years. Midsized businesses continue to lead job creation, however the share of jobs was spread a bit more evenly across all company sizes this month.”
The only decline was in the mining jobs (-1,000)...as manufacturing (+33,000) added the most jobs since 2012
This ADP print comes after The Conference Board showed the biggest drop in labor market expectations in over 50 years...
Americans’ current perceptions about the labor market remain high, but they’re less confident the good times will last as the new year approaches as the share expecting more jobs in the next six months fell to 14.7 percent from 22.7 percent, the steepest two-month drop since 1968...
So, time for a rate-hike (solid jobs data) or time for a pause (expectations crashing)?