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Past few days have been somewhat weird. We can “feel” the bull, but it is not going higher. This is usually the last phase of a big move where the perception of the move is greater than what actually is occurring.
Below are some of our macro assets that have one theme in common:
We outlined our latest logic on gold yesterday. Gold has since then reversed rather abruptly.
Oil put in a small reversal candle right on the 100 day average.
As China has revived the speculators, markets over there have soared, but note the huge reversal in the “speculative” ChiNext index. Needles to say it occurred right on the 200-day average.
US credit has so far today been showing a big reversal very close to the big 60 level.
By now everybody “knows” VIX can only go lower, but pay attention to the small reversal in VIX today. 15 is a big level to watch.
The question is will SPX reverse exactly at levels we have seen it reverse on over past months. 2800 is huge and so far, today, the SPX is making a small reversal.
Source: charts by Bloomberg