After a Jolly Good Game of Brexit a Second Referendum is Expected

Britons voted to leave the EU on June 23, 2016 based on the promise by politicians that it would be an easy and profitable separation.  The vote was narrow with 51.9% saying they wanted to leave.

If politicians were truthful, the public would never have agreed to put their future in jeopardy with what will be a costly and difficult separation.  In fact, if the public knew that the vote would be for leave, a higher turnout for the stay campaign would have most certainly materialized.

For anyone taking a close look, it would have been obvious that the only outcome to coming up with an agreement to separate ties with the EU would be a bad and costly agreement.  Knowing this, politicians responsible for negotiating such settlement, including Theresa May, would have no other course of action except to postpone the inevitable truth that this was going to be a significant negative for Britons. 

Game theory plays out this outcome as a lose – lose proposition for everyone.  As such, politicians had to keep the public’s blinder on until the last moment so that the economic damage would be minimized.  This game plan is followed by all governments when confronted by a lose – lose proposition.  Lie, fake it, put on a stiff upper lip and then unfold the truth and realistic options when time has all but run out.

It has been painfully clear that Theresa May and other politicians knew the reality that there would eventually be another referendum on Brexit.  They had to play the game showing they were trying their hardest to get the best deal possible.  And they did get the best deal possible.  It’s just this best deal is not what was sold to the public who voted to leave.

Now that the public realizes their true options remaining - to either stay in the EU or leave with a costly deal or worse, no deal – a new referendum will be held on the topic.  This is not an abdication of the politicians’ responsibility to come up with an agreement to leave.  Rather, this is the reality of the best deal available not resembling anything that was sold to the public the first time around.

Currently over 5.5 million Britons have signed an online petition to cancel Brexit.  This is a record number of votes for petitions hosted by the British Parliament website. 

With such a loud visible demand to cancel Brexit, British politicians will have to add a new referendum to the potential options remaining. The polls show if the vote was held again, Britons would overwhelmingly vote to stay in the EU.

With a new referendum and a vote to stay, the uncertainty from the last three years will be lifted.  This will usher an economic boost to Britons and the rest of the world that will last for a couple of years.  Maybe this time around they will raise the required vote to 60% or more so a simple majority propelled by lies and preying on poor emotional responses will not be repeated.  As the world is getting smaller, we all need to keep pursuing policies that enhance inclusiveness and harmony to ensure peace, stability and prosperity – this was the goal of the EU in the first place. 

 

by Michael Carino, Greenwich Endeavors, 03/25/2019

Michael Carino is the CEO of Greenwich Endeavors, a financial specialist and a hedge fund portfolio manager, trader and owner of more than 25 years.  He typically has positions that benefit from a normalized bond market, higher yields and value investments.