ADP Shows Weakest Job Gains Since Sept 2017 As Manufacturing, Construction Shrink

Following last month's weak ADP print which front-ran the dismal "must be an outlier due to weather, shutdown, or anything else" payrolls data, expectations were for a slightly weaker ADP employment headline in March.

However, despite the apparent emergence of 'green shoots' around the world, ADP disappointed, adding just 129k jobs in March (well below the expected +175k and only just above the 125k lowest estimate of analysts). This is the weakest growth in employment since Sept 2017...

 

Under the hood, Small businesses shrank their employee base, as Construction lost 6k jobs...

 

“March posted the slowest employment increase in 18 months,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.

“Although some service sectors showed continued strength, we saw weakness in the goods producing sector.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market is weakening, with employment gains slowing significantly across most industries and company sizes."

"Businesses are hiring cautiously as the economy is struggling with fading fiscal stimulus, the trade uncertainty, and the lagged impact of Fed tightening. If employment growth weakens much further, unemployment will begin to rise.”

Zandi is not wrong - after 26 straight months of manufacturing jobs gains, March saw shrinkage...