Durable Goods Orders Show Weakest Yearly Gains In 2 Years Despite MoM Rebound

Following February's surprise slump, March Durable Goods Orders were expected to rebound and preliminary data showed just that - a big beat.

March preliminary durable goods orders jumped 2.7% MoM (from a revised higher -1.1% drop in February)

 

However, YoY Durable Goods Orders slowed to just 0.8%...

Excluding transportation-equipment demand, which tends to be volatile, orders rose 0.4 percent following two straight declines. Defense capital-goods orders rose 7.4 percent.

Of course the data is extremely noisy with such swings as this...

  • nondefense aircraft orders +31.2%

  • Defense aircraft new orders +17.7%

And the business spending proxy - Capital Goods Orders non-Defense, Ex Air surprised to the upside...

However, shipments did disappoint, falling 0.2% MoM...

Some figures used to calculate gross domestic product were mixed: Shipments of non-military capital goods excluding aircraft fell 0.2 percent, missing forecasts for a gain, after an upwardly revised 0.2 percent rise the prior month.

As Bloomberg notes, the improvement in equipment orders signals manufacturers are seeing stable demand, which should contribute to a still-solid pace of economic growth in the first quarter. At the same time, companies must contend with larger inventories heading into the second quarter, a factor expected to boost gross domestic product in the short-term but weigh on it later.