The politicos are out crowing of the booming US economy confirmed by today's jobs report.
Despite a worrying retracement in the participation rate:
But, as Southbay Research explains, beneath the headline figures, payrolls are slowing...
Supply Chain Hiring Grinds to a Halt, Services Takes Over
Trade & Transportation (+5K)
No surprise here, as ISM and other data was pointing to a pullback in these sectors.
Also, the jump in Construction (+33K) was called out in our forecast.
This is catch-up seasonal hiring and not a trend. For May, expect additional catch-up hiring to keep this figure up.
Services Roars Ahead on One-Offs
Weakness in Trade, Transportation was offset by strength in:
Financial (+12K) jumped on real estate as low rates boosted home buying
Landscaping (+20K) on catch-up seasonal hiring
Healthcare (+53K) including an unusual jump in Social Services (+26K)
Food Services (+25K)
Of the 202K additional Services Payrolls, at least 46K is one-time and will not repeat next month (Landscaping + Social Services)
And then there's unusually strong Municpal Government Hiring
Strong one-off local government hiring (+27K) added to the party
Key Trend: Under the Headline Figure, A Payroll Slowdown is underway
Manufacturing retreats (+4K)
Construction continues (Construction + 33k, Real Estate Financial +8K)
Consumer spending is moderating (Trade, Transportation +5K)
Services Hiring is moderating. For example, Temp Workers +17K in April but only +12K total the last 3 months
April's strong number is the final rebound from February's weakness (aka catch-up seasonal hiring). Coming up next month: Slower Payroll Growth.