Oil Algos Confused By Bigger Than Expected Crude Build, Gasoline Draw

Oil prices tumbled today (after ripping higher yesterday along with everything else) as Trump's tariff-threats appear to be taken more seriously by market participants.

“There are concerns about the broad economic environment,” said Michael Tran, a commodity strategist at RBC Capital Markets LLC in New York. “Clearly, the biggest risk to the oil market right now is the Trump factor coupled with macro headwinds.”

After last week's surprisingly large crude build, all eyes are on API data tonight for hints at whether the extreme long positioning in the energy complex will be squeezed any further.

API

  • Crude +2.81mm (+1.2mm exp)

  • Cushing +618k

  • Gasoline -2.833mm

  • Distillates -834k

Another bigger than expected crude build last week but draws in gasoline and distillates (again) offset the bearish bias of the build...

American drillers have boosted output to a record while pushing nationwide stockpiles to the highest since September 2017.

WTI was testing down towards a $60 handle ahead of the data and kneejerked modestly higher after the print, despite the crude build...

“We are not very much surprised that prices have come down a little bit lower,” Daniel Ghali, a TD Securities commodities strategist, said in a phone interview. “What is surprising is that the market is discounting or disregarding the increase in tensions between the U.S. and Iran after the U.S sent a clear and indisputable signal that they will not tolerate any aggression in the region.”