Stocks & Bond Yields Tumble As Trade Turmoil Sparks Breakdown In Boom-Bust Barometer

Fed Minutes fail to fend off the selling pressure as the Trump administration cranks up the pressure on China...

 

Chinese stocks were lower overnight (but ChiNext remain green on the week?)..

 

European markets were mixed with Germany modestly higher against weakness in the periphery...

 

US markets tumbled on the day with Trannies tanking worst... Another weak close took The S&P red on the week and Dow very modestly higher...

 

Today was the 7th day in a row of the opening-ramp...

 

We noticed that the machines kept wanting to lift Nasdaq futures back to the scene of the crime last night when NYT headlines reported the HIKvision blacklist...but each one failed

 

"Most Shorted" stocks tumbled today (so get yourself ready for a squeeze tomorrow?)

 

Semis slumped back to Monday lows...

 

Tesla bonds and stocks tumbled further on the day (with default odds now near 50%)...


Treasury yields tumbled on the day, pushing 30Y (outperforming) back to unch on the week

 

10Y Yields dropped back below 2.40% again today...

 

The yield curve extended its flattening trend after FOMC Minutes...

 

The Dollar is pinging around like a penny stock this week, but bounced very modestly higher after the hawkish tone from the Minutes...

 

Cable just keeps falling as rumors of May's demise rise...

 

Cryptos were quiet again today with Bitcoin treading water just below $8k (after briefly breaking above it overnight)...

 

Copper and Crude were clubbed like baby seals (trade war and inventory build respectively) with PMs flat on the day...

 

WTI almost tested a $60 handle intraday...

 

Finally, as Bloomberg's Ye Xie notes, the so-called boom-bust barometer is flashing a warning sign to the stock market.

The indicator, which tracks the ratio between the CRB industrial material price index and weekly jobless claims, peaked in mid-April and has since sunk like a stone. A similar decline a year ago foreshadowed the market rout in late 2018.

The recent decline in the index, which was created by Ed Yardeni at Yardeni Research, is driven by lower commodity prices and higher jobless claims. While it's easy to dismiss the jump in jobless claims as noise, the drop in industrial material prices do reflect weaker global manufacturing as the trade war moves from simmer to boil.

And global money supply support is disappearing...