Brace for a barrage of flashing red central bank headlines.
Central banks are set to steal the limelight on the coming sessions, and Markets will have to prepare themselves for a packed week of events next week, headlined by the Fed meeting. Additionally, the BoE and BoJ will also meet, ECB leaders gather in Sintra, the UK Conservative Party leadership contest should be narrowed down to two candidates, while the flash June PMIs are also scheduled to be released. And it goes without saying that the risk of further trade headlines is never too far away either.
As DB's Craig Nicol writes, it's hard to look past next week's Fed meeting as being the main event for markets. Indeed with markets now pricing in virtually a full rate cut at the July meeting and a further 2 cuts over the next 12 months, all eyes will be on to what extent Powell endorses market pricing now in light of recent soft inflation and rising downside risks to the US economy from trade tensions. Expectations are much lower for a cut next week, with around a 30% chance.
Incidentally, DB economists recently changed their Fed call and expect 3 cuts of 25bps each at the July, September and December meetings. They also lowered their 2019 growth forecast by 40bps to 1.9%. Meanwhile, Rabobank is now of the view that a July rate cut announcement from the Fed is likely on the back of the lack of progress in the US/China trade talks, the weak US May jobs report and sluggish US inflation data. There has been some speculation in the market that the Fed could act on rates as soon as this week. However, the prospect of this dimmed on the back of Friday’s stronger than expected US retail sales report.
In addition to the Fed, the BoE will also meet on Thursday. In light of the global easing wave, few banks expect the BOE to hike this year, and DB - for example- now sees rising risks that the Bank Rate has reached its terminal point.
Finally for central bank meetings, we've also got the BoJ meeting next Thursday. DB economists expect the BoJ to maintain its current policy stance and reaffirm the view that the economy is "on a moderate expanding trend" despite the rising global uncertainties. Comments from Kuroda particularly about the inflation outlook will also be a focus.
Over in Europe, there is no central bank announcement but ECB officials will also get an opportunity in the spotlight as they gather in Sintra - the same place where several years ago Draghi first proposed the ECB's rate normalization, which has since crashed and burned, on Monday for a three-day meeting. Draghi is making opening remarks on Monday evening and introductory remarks on Tuesday morning, while Guindos, Praet, Lane, Lautenschlaeger and Coeure are all due to take part. The BoE's Carney also takes part in a policy panel with Draghi and former Fed Chair Yellen on Tuesday afternoon. Staying with the ECB we should note that EU heads of state also gather in Luxembourg on Thursday for another round of talks about candidates for the European Commission and ECB.
Political events also loom with the second leadership contest for the Conservative Party taking place on Tuesday, with further contests to take place on Wednesday and Thursday until the final two candidates remain. Six candidates remain at the time of writing, with Boris Johnson topping the first winning ballot with 114 votes (36%). The new PM is still expected to be appointed by 22 July.
Meanwhile, it's a relatively light week for data and we'll have to wait until Friday for the main highlight when we'll get the flash June PMIs around the world and which will be important to gauge how the fallout from the trade war has impacted the data.
The consensus for the data for the Euro Area is a very slight improvement in the manufacturing and services readings. Data worth flagging in the US next week includes May housing starts and building permits on Tuesday, and NY Fed and Philly Fed surveys on Tuesday and Thursday respectively. On Tuesday we'll also get the final May CPI revisions for the Euro Area and June ZEW survey in Germany, while the May CPI report is due in the UK on Wednesday.
There is also a long line of central bank speakers next week; on Friday we're due to hear from Brainard and Mester at the Fed at a Fed Listens Event, while Daly will also be speaking at a separate event. At the ECB most of the focus will be on Sintra, however Guindos and Enria are also due to speak on Thursday. Meanwhile, BoE Governor Carney will give his Mansion House speech on Thursday.
Finally, other things worth flagging next week include Italian Deputy PM Salvini traveling to the US on Sunday to meet VP Pence. On Monday public hearings will begin in Washington on President Trump's proposed tariffs on $300bn of Chinese goods. On Wednesday we'll get the EIA crude oil inventory report.
Courtesy of Deutsche Bank, here is a breakdown of key events in the coming week:
- Monday: Data releases include June house price data in the UK, Q1 labour costs data for the Euro Area and the June empire manufacturing and NAHB housing market index readings in the US. ECB officials will also meet in Sintra for a three-day gathering, with Draghi due to speak. Public hearings will also begin in Washington on Trump's proposed tariffs on $300bn of Chinese goods.
- Tuesday: Overnight, China's new home prices data for May will be released, while in Europe we'll get May PPI in Germany, April trade balance for the Euro Area, final May CPI revisions for the Euro Area and June ZEW survey in Germany. In the US we're due to get May housing starts and building permits data. The second ballot for the UK leadership contest will also take place.
- Wednesday: The highlight will be the Fed meeting in the evening. In terms of data, we'll get May trade data in Japan, the May CPI report and June CBI survey data in the UK and April construction output for the Euro Area. The EIA crude oil report will also be due.
- Thursday: Overnight, the BoJ policy meeting is scheduled, while during the day the BoE policy meeting is due. In terms of data, May retail sales data in the UK is scheduled while in the US the latest claims reading, Q1 current account balance, June Philly Fed survey and May leading index are all due. The June consumer confidence reading for the Euro Area is also due in the afternoon. Away from that EU heads of state commence a two-day meeting to appoint new leaders for the commission and ECB. The BoE's Carney is due to speak in the evening while the ECB's Guindos speaks during the day.
- Friday: The data highlight are the flash June PMIs around the world. As well as that we'll get May CPI in Japan, May public finances data in the UK and May existing home sales in the US. The Fed's Brainard, Mester and Daly are also due to speak.
Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman notes that the key event this week is the June FOMC meeting with the release of the statement and Summary of Economic Projections at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM. In addition, the Philly Fed manufacturing index will be released on Thursday.
Monday, June 17
- 08:30 AM Empire State manufacturing index, June (consensus +12.0, last +17.8)
- 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, June (consensus 67, last 66)
Tuesday, June 18
- 08:30 AM Housing starts, May (GS +1.0%, consensus flat, last +5.7%); Building permits, May (consensus flat, last +0.6%)
- We estimate housing starts rose +1.0% in May. Our forecast incorporates a boost from lower mortgage rates and a drag from slower construction job growth.
Wednesday, June 19
- 02:00 PM FOMC statement, June 18-19 meeting; As discussed in our FOMC preview, we do not expect any change in the funds rate. In the post-meeting statement, we expect a slight dovish tilt to the statement language, with removal of the word “patient,” but no outright endorsement of easier policy. We also expect modest downgrades in the growth characterization (to “moderate” from “solid”). We expect several officials, but not most, to show a projected cut in 2019 in the Summary of Economic Projections. In his press conference, we expect Chair Powell to project a vigilant but ultimately data-dependent view on the outlook, in order to help limit the magnitude of any risk-asset selloff.
Thursday, June 20
- 08:30 AM Current account balance, Q1 (consensus -$123.5bn, last -$134.4bn)
- 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended June 15 (GS 225k, consensus 220k, last 222k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended June 8 (last 1,695k): We estimate jobless claims increased by 3k to 225k in the week ended June 15, after increasing by 3k in the prior week.
- 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, June (GS +9.6, consensus +12.0, last +16.6); We estimate that the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index declined by 7.0pt to +9.6 in June after an 8.1pt increase in May.
Friday, June 21
- 09:45 AM Markit Flash US manufacturing PMI, June preliminary (consensus 50.6, last 50.5)
- 09:45 AM Markit Flash US services PMI, June preliminary (consensus 51.0, last 50.9)
- 10:00 AM Existing home sales, May (GS +2.5%, consensus +2.1%, last -0.4%): After falling 0.4% in April, we estimate that existing home sales rose by 2.5% in May, based on a rebound in regional home sales data. Existing home sales are an input into the brokers' commissions component of residential investment in the GDP report.
- 12:00 PM Fed Governor Brainard (FOMC voter) and Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC non-voter) speak: Fed Governor Lael Brainard and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will take part in a Fed Listens event in Cincinnati. Audience Q&A is expected.
Source: DB, BofA, Goldman