Stocks are rallying hard this morning based on the fact CNBC misquoted the Treasury Secretary.
Let that sink in for a moment.
Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said, “we were about 90% of the way” done on the China deal… in reference to what happened in early May.
CNBC quoted him as saying “we are about 90% of the way” done on the China deal as though the US and China are making progress on a deal today.
Stock futures spiked on this misquotation… which only confirms that the US/ China trade deal remains the single most important issue for the stocks in the near-term.
This means we are in for a VERY volatile week as US/ Chinese officials are scheduled to meet this weekend at the G-20 meeting in Osaka Japan. So expect more misleading headlines such as the one I just mentioned.
However, the sad reality is that a successful trade deal is impossible.
China will NEVER accept a deal that makes its leadership look weak. This means a hard “NO” on anything related to IP theft, tech secrets, or financial repercussions for violating the agreement.
Conversely, the Trump administration has made it clear that it’s more than willing to play “hardball” on this issue. The President himself is framing it as a central theme for his 2020 re-election campaign.
Stocks will likely hold up into this weekend, but after that, expect the US to implement higher tariffs on Chinese goods and China to return with a similarly aggressive tactic against the US.
Deep down, the stock market knows this, which is why the single most important chart, showing the breadth of the NYSE (the largest stock market) is forming a rising bearish wedge.
Whenever this wedge formation breaks down, the rally is OVER and the stock market will retest the December lows.
After that, the Crash hits...
On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.
In it, we outline the coming collapse will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.
We extended our deadline on this report based on today's sucker rally... but going forward this report will no longer be available to the public.
To pick up one of the last remaining copies…
Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research