Every time we’ve reached this level in history, a recession followed shortly thereafter.
As Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg notes "there's no turning back from this level."
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” - Charles MacKay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
We have already experienced the longest economic expansion in history.
As Ron Stoeferle notes, the 12-mo change in business activity by country "is looking very very worrisome."
“In reading The History of Nations, we find that, like individuals, they have their whims and their peculiarities, their seasons of excitement and recklessness, when they care not what they do. We find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object and go mad in its pursuit; that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first.” - Charles MacKay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
We will enter this next recession with the highest level of debt in history and a Fed with very few bullets left in their gun.
So now must be the best time ever to buy stocks at all-time highs, when every valuation reading points to a 50% decline.
Go for it baby!!! And don’t forget to buy on margin.