Durable Goods Tumble Year-Over-Year Despite June Rebound

After May's unexpected plunge, US Durable Goods Orders were expected to rebound modestly but instead, thanks to huge downward revision, Dur Goods surged 2.0% MoM... but at the weakest in 3 years on a YoY basis

This is the biggest MoM jump since Aug 2018...

The noisy aircraft orders segment continue to oscillate, affected by Boeing also.

  • Nondefense aircraft new orders +75.5%
  • Defense aircraft new orders -32.1%

But we note that year-over-year, Dur Goods Orders (NSA) are down 4.5% - the weakest in 3 years...

However, under the hood suggests some silver linings that The Fed is going to struggle to explain away.

A proxy for business investment - non-military capital-goods orders excluding aircraft - jumped 1.9% in June after a downwardly revised 0.3% increase in the prior month, according to Commerce Department figures Thursday that topped estimates.

The largest increase in equipment orders since February 2018 was broad-based and could ease concerns that the trade war with China and weakening global growth risk a deeper slowdown in the U.S. economy.