Who will bow to this?
“You cannot prevent and prepare for war at the same time.” – Albert Einstein
“War is when the young and stupid are tricked by the old and bitter into killing each other.” – Niko Bellic
A decade ago a global war seemed not only highly unlikely but almost unfathomable.
Sounds perhaps a bit bombastic but really this is not. The IEA forecasts mentioned in our latest Insider Weekly are not actually “forecasts” in the same way that I or anyone can run some numbers, plot some trends, and come up with our best guess scenario of how things may look in the future based on metrics such as supply and demand, capex spending, age of existing wells, infrastructure, demographic trends, and all that sort of fun stuff.
They are influenced, I assure you, by politically motivated groups intent on pushing forward with “the Great Reset”.
They are calling for entire nations to shut down their energy grids all in the name of “climate”. These climate Nazis will cause wars if this is pursued.
Speaking of such groups…
The head of the United Nations is calling on countries to end what he calls a war on nature and instead embrace a future without carbon pollution triggering global warming.
This is unlikely to happen. No, what will more likely happen is war. Countries and people will go to war before they are forced to starve under this communist woke manifesto being trumpeted by the WEF and the UN.
Let’s do a breakdown, but first… here is global oil production from 2020.
Let’s go through them one by one asking ourselves the simple question. Who will bow to this?
- Saudi? Ain’t gonna happen. They have two, no three things, in quantity. Oil, sand, and camels and only one of them makes them any money. Can’t and won’t give it up.
- US? Following this agenda, it will cause the place to look like Venezuela or California, though increasingly there isn’t much difference between the two. Nope, the US is on a path towards splitting as I’ve been saying for over a year now. That is unlikely to be a smooth process. Oh, and by the way, the Idaho Statesman reported:
“Thousands of people in eastern Oregon voted Tuesday for their elected officials to consider ditching their state and becoming part of Idaho.
Voters in Sherman, Lake, Grant, Baker and Malheur counties all voted for ballot measures that would lead to them becoming Idahoans. People in Union and Jefferson counties had already voted in favor during the November election.
The vote is only the first step of the “Greater Idaho” project, which would allow some Oregon counties to join a state that advocates say more closely aligns with their political preferences.”
The Split Is Coming
This split is coming. As for the energy side of things, those states advocating for this vs those who won’t. So the US will be a mixed bag but with added tensions.
In fact, the climate agenda will only accelerate and fuel the coming civil war.
- Russia? Nyet!
- Iraq? Totally depends on which external power gains control. Hint: it won’t be the US, the EU, or the Brits, which leaves only Russia and China. Neither are woke so that’s Iraq.
- Canada? Oh, dear, dear Canada. Here is your grand leader. Taking a knee for BLM.
Black Lives Matter Is A Self-Professed Marxist Revolutionary Group
As I’ve pointed out in a previous issue. Black Lives Matter is a self professed Marxist revolutionary group and a funding arm for the US Democratic party (we proved this showing the money flows). Canada is one of the most amazing countries in this geopolitical mess as it is highly reliant on both agriculture and fossil fuels, both of which the Marxists have denounced.
Canada is one of the countries that looks like it really has the most to lose and is going to lose it.
- Brazil? Depends on political outcomes. Amazingly, they managed to spring Lula from prison and he’ll run in the next elections. Yikes! The media is controlled by Marxists who hate Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro himself is not particularly intelligent and woefully inept at navigating politics, but he’s far better than Lula, who, if he gets into power, then Brazil follows this path despite it being heavily reliant on agriculture and mining. Jury out on this one. Wait and see.
- China? Not a chance!
- Iran? Nope!
- Kuwait and UAE? Same as Saudi. Highly unlikely.
- Venezuela? Unlikely. It will fall under Chinese influence but they’re already au-pha-cdup and we’re unlikely to see any significant increase in output.
- Nigeria and Angola: Both already fall under Chinese influence.
- The Stans: Not gonna happen and will, where needed, seek military alliances with Russia, Turkey, and maybe even China.
- Mexico: This one puzzles me. I really don’t know. I mean, on the one hand Mexico is actually sort of decentralized politically. This is a polite way of saying multiple cartels wield power. And on the other hand they’ve been heavily influenced by the CIA and USG. Friends tell me there is an increasing Chinese influence too. At the end of the day though Mexico isn’t going to change the dynamics of a market that is absolutely going to be short supply.
Europe Will Disintegrate
At the tippy top of this is Russia. Russia will NOT comply and everyone knows it. It is no surprise that we see anti-Russian rhetoric gathering momentum. Expect to see more of this.
My guess is that as Europe disintegrates into chaos and civil strife they will print more money which itself will only hasten the collapse. Satellite countries will be forced to choose a path. The great reset path… or something else. In doing so they’ll need (because this is a war) military and economic backing in order to do so.
In this space it is likely, though not a given, that former CIS and Eastern European countries form new economic and military alliances, which may well have particulars we don’t like about them but will err on the side of free market capitalism over communism, if only because they’ve tried communism in their recent past and found it wanting.
Great Reset Coercion
One of the aspects of the “great reset” is that it relies to an extraordinary extent on coercion. All government force does, so this isn’t any revelation. What it means is that nations, tribes, peoples must all bow and conform to this cult. Any reading of history and psychology will reveal that this is unlikely to be met with welcoming arms, chants of kumbaya, and drinks all round. Instead, expect snot to fly.
If this communist agenda, which is masquerading under the guise of both “health” and “saving the planet from CO2” continues (and there are no indications that it won’t at this point), war is the most obvious outcome.
There is something else…
Domestically, any pressures will have immediate effects. Perhaps this is what Klaus Schwab and gang anticipate.
Regime change amidst domestic chaos has been a hallmark of CIA operations for decades so it is tried and tested. The reason this is so much easier in the third world is because life is far more precarious when you’re living hand to mouth. Even without sanctions by the EU on countries that don’t tow the zero carbon line we are already in for a food crisis. Remember the spark that lit the Arab Spring revolts of 2011 was a protest in Tunisia over rising food prices.
I think it was Mark Twain who said comedy is simply tragedy plus time. I read an article the other day from that think tank the IMF where under their “core” areas in emerging markets to be “addressed” missed out food and energy.
Good lord! Only a disconnected-from-reality neo-liberal Marxists who truly believes they’ve been aggrieved because they’ve been misgendered can exclude nourishment and staying warm as anything other than “core” and champion their fellow man in the developing world being denied these things. But that, of course, is what we are seeing take place.
We know because we’ve ample proof that commodity price inflation can be extraordinarily politically destabilizing. For those of a rational mind we all know that nourishment and staying warm are indeed core and certainly carbon emissions or some concocted pseudo scientific babble comes a very distant way down the line of importance.
Many EM countries are without strong and flexible systems of governance. Couple that with the immense damage already wrought and which continues to be wrought, due to lockdowns and we are in for crises. 2020 was the beginning, not a one off from which we emerge and go back to some form of normal. I really wish that was the case but it is both economically, socially and politically impossible to reverse.
It should be remembered that in the last financial crisis, America experienced both a significant decline in home prices (an event that hadn’t happened since the 1930s) as well as $150 oil simultaneously. You know because you read our work that we believe we’re in for something that will make that particular set of events look paltry in comparison.
Riots For Food
The real crux of the matter will be riots for food, which will bring instability within countries but also geopolitical instability as nations try to source, secure, and acquire these necessities. While this is going on we’ve got Klaus and his bought and paid for technocrates at the UN, World Bank, and IMF actively advocating for and indeed implementing policies which 100% destroy both nourishment (food) and energy (warmth).
With America’s twin deficits approaching 20% of GDP, it is difficult to get bullish about currency of any description, especially against commodities and hard assets.
So what I want to point out is that stronger commodity prices aren’t in themselves too dangerous for inflation in developed countries, they could be profoundly destabilizing in the emerging markets.
Problems affording food would only exacerbate the pain for the countries like Brazil and particularly India that are currently suffering grievously from the plandemic.
Food makes up 29.8% of consumer expenditures in India (and as much as 59% in Nigeria). For context, in the US it accounts for just 6.4% in the U.S.
Now moving onto how to control this inflation. Over in the US they perversely can better manage this due to reserve currency status. EM, on the other hand, will be forced into interest rate hikes right when their economies are struggling under crippling lockdowns, broken supply chains, and the consequent rising costs of… well, everything.
The other thing to realise is this. Central banks in EM will most likely need to raise rates for the simple fact that food makes up a much larger portion of incomes and curbing the rising cost of food will become important if only to try to maintain political stability. Riots aren’t good for that, and riots we’ll get.
So that’s the domestic side of things but the big daddy really is this economic conflict that will roll out globally. Watch for it!
Think about it like this. Let’s say you are a country, say China, and you’ve got this bucket load of rare earths. When things were humming along nicely in that ever expanding globalising world we have since exited, you couldn’t get them out the door fast enough to make some moolah and increase your standard of living.
Now, however, when you’re being told you have to submit to Herr Klaus and the UN and some carbon emission scheme which turns you from a valued component in this system to a pariah, to be ridiculed, despised, sanctioned, and punished, those rare earths become a political tool.
Bastards, you think to yourself and then, “Where do I have leverage here?”
Supply destruction and resource nationalism
That is the immediate question any individual would ask themself when put into a situation of duress, and entire countries are no different. You go from a cooperative system to one of coercion and then onto one of active aggression. That rare earths guy will rather hoard his store than sell it to those who aggrieve him. Supply destruction and resource nationalism. You’ve heard me talk about all these things before. They’re coming and fast.
So what do we look for here?
Easy. Think when you were a kid in the playground and the friends you had now ostracized you for some silly reason that kids do these things (teachers pet, funny clothes, etc.). What did you do? You went and found another group of kids to hang out with.
It may seem silly to use kids in a playground as an analogy but really it isn’t because despite the fact that we grow up our psychology doesn’t change. Only the tools available.
So what we watch for now is those new alliances that WILL form. Watch for it. Just as no man is an island so, too, no nation can operate completely independently. We will see completely new alliances built around military and economic needs. It may well be some of the most important events which will plot the trajectory of entire nations for the next multi generational cycle.
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