Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance
This is Part 2 of an exclusive interview with Doomberg, the collective that runs the Doomberg Substack. During this interview series, we discuss oil, Bitcoin, the coming Fed chair swap, fiscal policy, politics, uranium and more.
You can read Part 1 of this interview, where Doomberg talks about the potential for $300 oil and uranium doubling or tripling, here.
Doomberg publishes skeptical analyses through the hard money/Austrian lens and its objective is to be funny without being silly, to teach without being self-indulgent, and to provoke without being polarizing. They publish 10-12 pieces a month, which you can read for free here.
Q: Hey Doomberg: of the 4 indices — Dow, S&P, NASDAQ and Russell - which would you go long and which would you go short if you had to pick two — and why?
Not to duck the question, but we rarely invest in the stock market or its indices.
Aside from a few commodity bets, our strategy is to earn income in fiat, save by buying real assets, and invest privately where we can directly impact the outcome.
We aren’t capable of gambling on a security assuming a greater fool will eventually buy it from us at a higher price, even if that is the most likely outcome.
Fair enough. What’s your take on what will eventually catalyze rate hikes, if you think it’ll ever happen?
David Dredge was a recent guest on The Grant Williams Podcast, and he had a great insight. When pondering why the US pulled out of Afghanistan, he settled on something like “they woke up one day and decided to.”
For decades, the US maintained a quasi-stable situation there until one day it was all over. Biden decided it was time to end the charade, and it happened. It is the same situation with the Fed.
Our economic leaders have decided to socialize private losses, inject liquidity into the system at unprecedented rates, run huge fiscal and trade deficits, and monetize the debt. They call it different things, but that’s essentially what they are doing. Today, everybody believes in the power of the Fed to maintain control. Every dip is being bought.
If the inflationary pressures continue to grow and real rates continue to plunge, the Fed might wake up one day and decide they can no longer keep doing this.
We should note that we are firmly in the inflation camp. Our contacts in industry have been waving the red flag on inflation for many months. The first piece we ever published back in May was on the coming supply chain crisis. That supply chain crisis has now arrived. We know many brilliant people who think inflation is transitory and if it runs hot enough, it’ll trigger a deflationary collapse. Maybe. We note that few of the people making this case ever worked a day in heavy industry. What is going on in the real economy is unprecedented.
One potential catalyst we have been highlighting is (READ FULL INTERVIEW HERE)
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