Surviving State Collapse: Lessons From South Africa
South Africa's Present: America's Future?
In a post here a couple of years ago (Is South Africa's Present America's Future?), I wrote about why Americans ought to pay attention to South Africa:
Eleven years ago, author and urban futures scholar Joel Kotkin wrote optimistically about America's demographic trajectory:
An ongoing source of strength for the United States over the next 40 years will be its openness to immigration. Indeed, more than most of its chief global rivals, the U.S. will be reshaped and re-energized by an increasing racial and ethnic diversity.
Working to advance that trajectory, the Biden Administration announced in May that it would prioritize Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia for refugee resettlement. With that in mind, it's worth paying attention to another country which prizes its diversity, the Rainbow Nation of South Africa.
In addition to its 80% African population comprised of several different ethnolinguistic groups, and its shrinking white population, South Africa also has a significant South Asian minority. Although cheerleaders of demographic change in the United States generally don't predict we will end up with a majority African population, if we commit to continued mass immigration, and the UN projections graphed by Steve Sailer below prove accurate, it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility.
So it's worth paying attention to what's happening in South Africa now.
The rest of that post detailed the chaos engulfing South Africa at the time. Apparently things have gotten even worse there.
State Collapse In South Africa
The thread below details the state collapse occurring in South Africa now. Following that, we'll look at some steps Afrikaners are taking to survive it, lessons that may be useful to minorities (and future minorities) elsewhere.
6. * Sewage treatment works - more than half are offline. And those are working, aren't effective. https://t.co/GrZfs9aEvN— #zombieland (@k9_reaper) February 28, 2023
8. * Electrical grid - by now, most of you know that South Africa is going through "load shedding". Where the government turns off large parts of the electrical grid in order to avoid grid collapse. https://t.co/25AIThjJwu— #zombieland (@k9_reaper) February 28, 2023
This leads to every possible issue imaginable.
10. * Almost every single state run enterprise (SOE), is defunct. They're literally the spitting image of Zimbabwe. ESKOM - our only power producer - is dead in the water. Averaging a 50% or less power output. https://t.co/EdUrAAYqZA— #zombieland (@k9_reaper) February 28, 2023
12. * Our rail is dead. 1/4 of our freight, gone in not even 5 years. But it's worse now.. the rail just isn't there anymore. It's gone. Stolen. Every piece of available track, copper cable and scrap metal - gone. https://t.co/uzSzjWFeE2— #zombieland (@k9_reaper) February 28, 2023
14. Working roads, what's that? 😂 Our roads are basically just one giant pothole and nothing else. I don't want to repeat it, but our roads have collapsed. At some stage, they even ran out of tar to facilitate repairs. https://t.co/IEND13orNBhttps://t.co/MjqKdPQLNt— #zombieland (@k9_reaper) February 28, 2023
16. City Power - our biggest grid repairer - is almost non operational. They also no longer do Nightshift due to attacks on employees and lack of funds. They've also used up their budget for the year. https://t.co/xGYlNoWAnf— #zombieland (@k9_reaper) February 28, 2023
18. [Part 3: Societal collapse]— #zombieland (@k9_reaper) February 28, 2023
This is why we are where we are.
20. Looting is our national sport. Trucks are targeted (guerilla warfare style) and stopped on uphills. Objects are then placed behind the wheels so that the driver cannot escape. Looting then begins. https://t.co/cZfcrINHRuhttps://t.co/2cIU3F0quS— #zombieland (@k9_reaper) February 28, 2023
22. Crime. Read 👇— #zombieland (@k9_reaper) February 28, 2023
1 rape every 10 minutes.
80 murders every 24 hours.
3 - 4 kids murdered every 24 hours.
Average of 70 hijackings a day.
Average of 2500 home invasions every 24 hours.
At least 4 - 5 CIT heists every week. pic.twitter.com/HWPvw9xGxE
24. Societal collapse has led to the US government issuing a warning to international travelers in SA - stock up prepper style on food and water. https://t.co/6XaYMjbdsu— #zombieland (@k9_reaper) February 28, 2023
The thread goes on to describe the breakdown in the healthcare system and other sectors, but a key point the writer makes is that the South African government has said it's not obligated to provide basic services such as power to its people. This highlights the problem of centralization, something the documentary below addresses.
"Selfbestuur" means "self-management" in Afrikaans. The main political point this short documentary makes is that you don't want to rely on a distant central government to provide the necessities of life for you: electricity, sewage treatment, policing, etc. That's been a problem in South Africa, where the central government is increasingly corrupt and incompetent.
The first part of the documentary (which is mostly in Afrikaans but is subtitled in English) deals with the ideal political solution to this: federalism, with authority devolved to local areas. They offer a successful example of this: the province of South Tyrol in Italy. South Tyrol was a part of Austria given to Italy after World War I, and for years after, the Italian government attempted to Italianize the province (move Italians from the south into it; make the Tyrolians only speak Italian, etc.). About 50 years ago, South Tyrol negotiated an autonomy deal with the Italian government, where it basically sends 10% of its tax collections to Rome and otherwise manages its own affairs.
Today, it's the richest province in Italy, so Rome does well on its 10% cut, and the Tyrolians get to maintain their distinct culture.
That's sort of an aspirational goal for the Afrikaners, but the second part of the documentary deals with the practical steps they're taking today, in communities like Orania: paving their own roads, building their own power and water infrastructure, fielding their own police force, etc. Basically, trying to make their communities oases of order within the broader chaos of South Africa.
Some food for thought here for the rest of us.
In Case You Missed It
On our trading Substack yesterday, I wrote about how yesterday's rally offered another opportunity to bet against stock that spiked 50% due to a TikTok video.
Another chance to bet against a stock that spiked 50% because of a Tiktok video. https://t.co/iSC6Bl7Eyk— Portfolio Armor (@PortfolioArmor) February 27, 2023
Also, Monday was another up day for natural gas trade our correspondent (and now, subscriber) alluded to below.
Brother, your timing on this trade was exquisite. Hats off to you.— “Degen, Karl Degen” (@DegenKarl) February 25, 2023
Next time you’re inspired in this way, would you @ me please?! 😬 pic.twitter.com/KQHcwfMkgY
After a 35% gain in natural gas, our call options were up 74% as of Monday's close.
You have to squint to see it, but that's a 35% gain over the last four trading days in nat gas. pic.twitter.com/5C0j0WMwQ3— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) February 27, 2023
If you want a heads up next time we enter a trade, you can subscribe to our trading Substack below.
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