The Center Cannot Hold
Update (17 May 2023): I concluded yesterday’s article (16 May) as follows: “I believe that in the near future we might see an abrupt change in Ukraine, perhaps a coup against the Zelensky regime and a capitulation of Ukraine’s military.” In testimony to the surreal speed with which the events are unfolding, this conclusion was corroborated less than 24 hours later: according to Seymour Hersh, a group of European countries led by Poland is secretly urging Zelensky to end the war even at the price of his resignation.
Originally published on Alex Krainer’s Substack, 16 May 2023
Zelensky’s diplomatic blitz
Over the weekend, the hero of our day, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine travelled to Rome where he met with the Pope. He also met with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Then he travelled to Berlin where he signed the joint declaration between Germany and Ukraine and secured more financial and military help from the Chancellor Olaf Scholz‘s government. Zelensky then flew to Paris and on to London where he thanked profusely the United Kingdom for their leading role in helping and supporting his government: “Thank you very much for this package that you’ve prepared – great, huge… Really what can save the lives for all our people.”
The Pope called for peace and offered to mediate between Ukraine and Russia to bring the conflict to an end but Zelensky, who had signed a decree formally banning any Ukrainian talks with Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin, dismissed the pontiff: “With all due respect to His Holiness, we don’t need mediators; we need a just peace… you can’t mediate with Putin.”
Can the cabal trust their minions?
Prime Minister Meloni and Chancellor Scholz didn’t call for peace. They practically fell over themselves to profess full support to Ukraine in her struggle for freedom and democracy, but somehow I can’t help hearing a very hollow ring to it all. For as long as I’d observed Scholz’s conduct in this conflict, he’s been making all the right noises but his follow-through always seemed consistently reluctant and unconvincing; a little bit like Donald Trump’s 2016 rocket attack on Syria: an impressive show of fireworks announced to the Russians in advance and striking at an empty lot in Syria.
Giorgia Meloni likewise, has behaved and talked like Zelensky’s fan girl but in real terms, Italian support for Ukraine has been something close to nothing. Recall, according to last month’s report published in FT, the military hardware given to Ukraine by Italy earlier this year was not delivered in combat-ready condition. Citing an anonymous adviser to Ukraine’s Defense ministry, FT reported that not a single one of the 20 self-propelled howitzers Rome provided was in usable condition.
Across the Atlantic, Biden Administration minions like Victoria Nuland, Jake Sullivan and Antony Blinken remain fanatically devoted to the “destroy Russia” project but it seems that their maneuvering space is shrinking by the day as more and more adults in the administration realize that this little cabal of pathological liars is barking mad and dragging the whole nation to ruin.
How many are secret saboteurs?
Last month I had the occasion to have a longish chat with an acquaintance who is a close personal friend of one of the western agents involved with this whole debacle. I’ll have to refer to the person as X and not give away their pronouns. At one point my conversation with X’s friend turned to the war in Ukraine. She asked a number of pointed questions which I answered according to my own views. Surprisingly, instead of the expected pro-Ukraine pushback, she only nodded with a faint smile. Then I asked about her friend, X and mentioned that I listened carefully to a few of X’s interviews and statements in various conferences and I said that while X was saying all the right words, somehow they didn’t sound very convincing to me.
I added that if I were a member of the inner sanctum of the globalist imperial cabal, I wouldn’t trust X. X’s friend continued to nod with her faint smile. I could not resist and I asked her, “am I right about that?” Her smile opened much more widely and she replied, “oh, yes!” I followed up to make sure I understood what I just heard: you mean, if I were part of the cabal, I would be right not to trust X? The answer was, yes (though I can’t disclose more).
It seems that below the surface of day-to-day events, behind the solemn declarations, award ceremonies, press conferences, back slaps and shows of support, the cabal is facing a festering conspiracy of disaffected officials, lukewarm supporters and outright enemies burrowing to sabotage the cabal’s agenda. It seems, to use Yeats‘ striking words, “The falcon cannot hear the falconer; Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold…”
Are Ukrainians also sabotaging the cabal?
Over the weekend we saw Russian missile strikes destroy two or three fuel and weapons storage facilities that produced spectacular explosions. I commented on Twitter that by this time, I would not be surprised if there were Ukrainians who are helping Russia target their missiles as a way of avoiding the counter offensive meat-grinder. Of course, my Tweet invited some hate mail from the pro-Ukraine accounts, but they just cannot know whether this is true or not.
The idea that all of Ukraine is a monolith, uniformly loyal to the west and unshakably committed to fighting the war against Russia to the last man is simply not realistic. Nobody wants to be the last man to die for a lost cause. When people sense that they’re being defeated, they will instantly lose the will to fight and seek to get themselves out of danger. By today, just about everybody involved is resisting the calls for a counter offensive with the Ukrainians loudly warning that they are not ready, that they need more time, more equipment, more ammunition…
Still, the most fanatical devotees of the imperial cabal are insisting that Ukrainians fight, berating them for failing to press on in spite of all the weaponry they’d been provided. Is that the thank you we get for all we’ve done for them? With each passing day the warmongers are indeed looking madder and madder and the lies with which they are trying to rekindle Ukrainians’ fighting spirit are becoming too obvious to deny. Just today they made the claim that they managed to shoot down six Kinzhals, 9 Kalibr missiles and a long list of other missiles and drones with which the Russians attacked.
Here we see the mayor of Kiev, Mr. Klitscho pose with one of the downed Kinzhals. Miraculously, not only did Ukraine’s air defence intercept the missile, they also shrunk it! The picture below shows it in its original size, before it was shrunk:
Who’s in charge?
Meanwhile however, two of Ukraine’s top commanders, Generals Zaluzhny and Sirsky have vanished. They may have been sacked or arrested by Zelensky regime, or they may have been killed in one of Russian missile strikes. Whatever the case, who is in charge then? Will Ukraine’s troops continue to fight knowing that their leadership mysteriously disappeared? What if they suspect that NATO commanders are running the show and using them as pawns against Russia? It’s a shambles.
Perhaps the most bizarre part of the story was hero Zelensky’s 13 May interview with the Washington Post. In a way it confirms my suspicions that elements within Ukraine are sabotaging the West’s “destroy Russia” project. The interview was bizarre at several levels: it made Zelensky appear incoherent and paranoid, but it also gave away the panic in the top ranks of his government.
Zelensky was referring to a specific document that was leaked from Ukraine’s military intelligence and insisted that his interviewer reveal to him the identity of Ukraine government officials they had contact with. Indeed, Zelensky was quite insistent in his interrogation: “… the question is, with which Ukrainian official did you talk? Because if they say something about our intelligence, that’s treason. … That’s why I asked you, which Ukrainians are you talking to?” A day after the long interview ws published, about 1,400 words of it were deleted, but the damage was done.
The financial markets will give the verdict: watch out!
I believe that in the near future we might see an abrupt change in Ukraine, perhaps a coup against the Zelensky regime and a capitulation of Ukraine’s military. While we can’t predict the repercussions of this event, the markets will not fail to price the new state of affairs in the world.
Back in 2021 when the U.S. troops withdrew from Afghanistan and the Taliban took over, I wrote in TrendCompass newsletter that this could be a heavy blow to western financial markets. The empire’s overarching objective of control over Eurasian landmass is predicated on controlling the collateral that’s supporting western financial system: the geography’s natural resources, as well as the labor force to strip mine them for the benefit of western banks and corporations. Here’s how the markets priced the loss of western foothold in Afghanistan in terms of British, German and American sovereign debt:
Of course, there’s been a lot of bad news during this period, but the loss of Afghanistan was an important catalyst. Again, note that the LSPE (large-scale price event) did not happen all at once, the day the news was out. Rather, as it invariably does, it unfolded over a period of time as a trend. I believe that the west’s defeat in Ukraine will have similar consequences, but likely even more dramatic. As General Mark Milley recently put it, the defeat in Ukraine would spell the end of the western world order, and when that happens, the markets will give their verdict as they always do, in trends. I also do expect that the European sovereign debt will collapse a lot more than American, but we’ll find out.
This is actually good news!
In general I believe the bad news for the degenerate imperial cabal will ultimately spell good news for most of the rest of humanity and the long-suffering people of Ukraine.
Alex Krainer – @NakedHedgie is the creator of I-System Trend Following and publisher of daily TrendCompass reports which cover over 200 financial and commodities markets. One-month test drive is always free of charge, no jumping through hoops to cancel. To start your trial subscription, drop us an email at TrendCompass@ISystem-TF.com
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