Something's Going To Break
Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance
Friday trading was decidedly risk-off and, for the first time since I can remember, made it feel like something - credit, commodities, market sentiment, who knows - is about to break.
Gold was up over 3%, oil was up over 5% and the VIX broke above 20. Yet, all day Friday I listened to much smarter people than me take to Twitter to continue to try and explain why “goldbugs” like myself were still misguided and wrong, despite the fact that gold was up over $60/oz. on the day.
I heard explanations like “triple tops never work” with photos of gold charts and “technical analysis”.
I heard people say that goldbugs have been claiming the “big move” is coming for decades now.
While both allegations may be true — (how the hell should I know?) — it doesn’t change the fact that gold is once again making the climb back up to all time highs. Will I be right about gold moving higher? Maybe! I’m wrong about a lot. But I’m confident in the metal enough to keep buying it and, as I’ve wrote about here many times, I do expect it to go lower on an overall deleveraging before eclipsing new highs.
Overall, do I think gold is going higher? Yes I do. Do I think the metal will eventually have an “a ha” moment where people rush to it (and to miners) faster than they ever have in history? Yes I do. Can I explain whether it’ll be from dollar disruption or geopolitical volatility? No, I can’t.
What I can do, however, is try to articulate why - and why - I am trying to buy miners and gold as best as I can to my ability. I did that in this piece earlier this month.
On Friday morning, I released a quick update on several stocks I’m watching and some commentary on where the indexes stand after Thursday’s CPI number. Trading on Friday showed shades of the risk-off sentiment I wrote about on Thursday morning, explaining why I was skeptical of U.S. markets: The Stock Market Sits On The Edge Of The End Of The World
You can read Friday morning’s additional subscriber-only update here. Also released this week, my October 2023 portfolio review lays out names I own and am watching, along with more details on names I talked about Friday morning: Trading Armageddon: October 2023 Portfolio Review.
For those who are not yet subscribers, you can take 50% off for life by using the coupon below: Get 50% off forever
Last week I also published some thoughts from fund manager Harris Kupperman, who laid out why he believes markets are on the verge of “anarchy”: "As I Look Into The Future, I See Anarchy": Harris Kupperman
I also wrote a missive about how, amongst the coming chaos, the U.S. consumer’s quality of life has deteriorated thanks to budget cuts, automation and policies in major U.S. cities that allow for looting and crime: The Degradation And Humiliation Of The U.S. Consumer
Finally, here’s what else I’ve been publishing about over the last two weeks:
The Stock Market Sits On The Edge Of The End Of The World - 🔥 28,100 reads
Trading Armageddon: October 2023 Portfolio Review - 🔥 22,500 reads
How Myocarditis Became the Silent Scandal of Covid Vaccination
The Degradation And Humiliation Of The U.S. Consumer - 🔥 26,200 reads
"As I Look Into The Future, I See Anarchy": Harris Kupperman - 🔥 25,200 reads
Why I'm Paying Urgent Attention To Gold Miner Stocks - 🔥 23,200 reads
The Costco Gold Indicator - 🔥 36,100 reads
Joe Biden Defiles The Corpse Of The Strategic Petroleum Reserve
100 Sigma Events? - 🔥 24,100 reads
Sick Thoughts Of Capitulating - 🔥 22,400 reads
The Unforgivable Ivermectin Swindle - 🔥 80,800 reads
For those who are not yet subscribers, you can take 50% off for life by using the coupon below:
Fringe Finance archive access:
QTR’s Disclaimer: I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. These positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.
