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Soft Landing Or Not, Gold Is Going Higher

quoth the raven's Photo
by quoth the raven
Saturday, Dec 16, 2023 - 23:10

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

It isn't too much of a surprise to me that the market surged to new all-time highs last week, driven by expectations of rate cuts being moved up to early 2024.

The general consensus is that, with inflation receding, the Fed is orchestrating a "soft landing," which will render years of inflation irrelevant, demonstrating the Federal Reserve's superhero-like prowess in economic management.

Of course, I find this perspective deeply flawed, as I discussed in last week's non-award winning article: Headless Market Chickens, Cluckin' Like Crazy

Market observers may have also noticed gold prices nearing all-time highs again. This trend, in my view, is likely to persist no matter what the market does in my opinion, as I explain in the above article.


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Now, with the 'soft landing' apparently achieved, I'm closely monitoring other commodity prices aside from gold.

Although oil prices dropped last week, remember that any increase in these commodities could lead to higher numbers in the next CPI reading. Fed Governor John Williams, in my view, understands these risks. He made cautious remarks on Friday, seemingly aimed at tempering the market's rally, which came on the back of comments interpreted as bullish by Jerome Powell. Williams told CNBC:

“We aren’t really talking about rate cuts right now. We’re very focused on the question in front of us, which as chair Powell said… is, have we gotten monetary policy to sufficiently restrictive stance in order to ensure the inflation comes back down to 2%? That’s the question in front of us.”

However, Williams' efforts were in vain as the market continued its ascent, further inflating valuations and distancing itself from reality.

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QTR’s Disclaimer: I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. Contributor posts and curated content are posted either with the author’s permission or under a Creative Commons license. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. These positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

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