"All Bull Markets Run Out Of Money": Dave Collum
Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance
The following is an excerpt from my friend Dave Collum’s Year In Review for 2023 that lays out his (1) current investments and (2) thought process on the market going forward into 2024.
David B. Collum is an economic commentator, chemist, Betty R. Miller Professor of Chemistry and Chemical Biology at Cornell University. He holds a PhD, Columbia University, MS, Columbia University, MA, Columbia University and BS, Cornell University.
Dave’s opinions are often well off the beaten path, but his investing outlook is unique and, in my opinion, extremely sharp. Dave can be followed on Twitter here.
Investing
Dave Collum is easily the best single investor I have come across.
–Bob Moriarty
I did well—spectacularly, actually—in the 30 years spanning 1980–2009. My huge mistake was that I was positive the orderly swan dive in ‘08–’09 was a head fake and that there was much more damage to be done; I expected another halving. When the markets hit the lows that were modestly below historical fair value—I talk about this more below—and I was nearly 80% liquid, I should have asked a simple question: how much exposure to equities should I have at the current valuations? Markets are like Father Guido Sarducci’s a-comin’ and a-goin’ planet: you know where you are but not where you are headed. My current positioning is probably my last big call in investing. I am still very liquid. My portfolio has been the polar opposite of the S&P on many days this year, which pleases me because I am trying to position against the S&P. Since I am predicting the markets will get interesting in a catastrophic sort of way as discussed in subsequent sections, it is not the time to re-pot myself.
I live on Cayuga Lake in a house that is a lifestyle changer, but it is threefold more expensive than I needed, which forces me to call it a real estate play. I use Zillow to track it on my balance sheet. Cash in TIAA and other short-term bonds are returning about 3.5%. I also have 15% of my wealth in a fund that is not under my control (white privilege from my parents) and is an old-man 40–60 equity-bond split. It got beat up last year reaching for yield; it was OK this year. Some selected risk assets held during 2023 are below, many of which are relatively new and rather speculative. I also have some other tobacco and energy stocks that I have owned for years:
Fidelity Select Gold Portfolio (FSAGX): –2%
Fidelity Natural Resources Fund (FNARX): +5%
Fidelity Select Energy Portfolio (FSENX): +0%
Goehring & Rozencwajg Resources (GRHIX): +12%
Impala Platinum (IMPUY): –45%
Jaguar Mining (JAGGF): –22%
Palm Valley Capital Fund (PVCMX): +9%
Rio Tinto (RIO): +5%
Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBSW): –39%
Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV): +4%
Central Fund of Canada +3%
Gold +13%
Silver +4%
PRPH –45%
WDOFF +19%
EWZ +34%
Some of those even surprised me how much they had blown up like a Ukrainian tank. Before you blow a snot bubble, however, and question the sanity of Bob Moriarty, bear in mind those highly speculative losers may evidence bad judgement but were also insignificant weightings; they were mere flesh wounds. The physical metals and their equivalents are so dominant that the net total return was +6% year-over-year. That ties inflation, but only if you buy those low-balled official inflation numbers. I believe, however, that how investors fare in the next “ordeal by water”—that trial used by overzealous Fed governors on witches—will separate the living from the dead.
I am still interested in...(READ THIS FULL ARTICLE AND DAVE'S OUTLOOK HERE).
