Geopol: Nations Increasingly Challenge US Military Superiority
Authored by GoldFix, ZH Edit
Topics:
- CEEMA: Nations Increasingly Challenge US Military Superiority
- Russia and Ukraine: US and Russia now have a territorial disagreement
- China – US Trade War: Peter Navarro may be sent packing
1. CEEMA Updates:
Few interesting anecdotes came out of this region recently that somewhat indirectly further corroborated our core thesis – the military might of the United States has deteriorated so much that more and more countries now are willing to take it head on. Rumor had it that the entire Blackwater squad in Yemen was wiped out. Although multiple OSINT sources mentioned the story without concrete evidence, the fact that the Houthis have shot down 19 MQ-9s so far is fairly convincing. Meanwhile, as we were quite worried about the possible US strike on Iran, things so far have panned out relatively OK amid a tremendous amount of diplomatic efforts from the US, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia and China. What may have not been noticed was another anecdote that Israel’s plan to strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities was likely leaked by someone in the US. Hence the strike did not happen. Is it a group of people who veto this course of action? Highly likely but we will never find out. To wrap up this article, I want to share a great speech: James Mattias on the state of the world at the Heritage Foundation in 2016. He talked about Russia, China and the Middle East. Fast forward to 2025, it is quite interesting to listen to this again and reflect deeply and honestly. A lot to unpack.
*The India-Pakistan situation may escalate in the next few days. We will keep a close eye and provide timely updates when there is a need.
2. Russia and Ukraine, Trump, Zelensky, and Putin:
Despite Trump’s positive remarks on media, Treasury’s announcement on the Reconstruction Investment Fund with Ukraine, reality is a stark contrast – US and Russia now have a territorial disagreement according to Steve Witkoff. The emphasis here is that if one wants to know what really happened, look for clues from Trump’s counterparties. From the looks on the frontline, Russia is poised to make a large-scale attack in the immediate future, “ The Summer Offensive”, in the coming days. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces stated that conscription office personnel who are healthy with combat experience but have not served on the frontlines will be deployed to combat zones and the military personnel who have sustained injuries will be reassigned to serve in conscription offices.
Our view remains unchanged:
There is a hope for a ceasefire agreement in 2025, but it is highly unlikely a result of America’s diplomatic effort. The European leaders are still in denial. EU has to accept the reality first, then Zelensky will have to fall in line without Ukraine getting bled dry. Trump never really cared about peace – it was just the politically correct thing to say until he got what he wanted (returns on US investments aids), then Ukraine can resume fighting with US equipment sales and taxpayers footing the bill.
Continues here
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