Taiwan Special: US Color-War Patterns Emerge

The boiling point approaches

The latest piece on Foreign Policy regarding Taiwan prompted the following analysis update, and the timing cannot be more appropriate. The title of that article is “Trump Should Rein in Taiwan” – as an alarmist statement it makes great practical sense however in reality Trump will probably not want to do so, rather, he may choose to play this Taiwan card against Beijing somewhere down the road.

What are Trump’s Plans for Taiwan?

It is relatively difficult to properly gauge how the Trump admin sees Taiwan for a few reasons: (1) Marco Rubio isn’t in the MAGA decision-making circle so his remarks on Taiwan shouldn’t be taken at face value, (2) William Lai and his cabinet show NO transparency in all matters pertaining to the US, and his team has no access to the top Republican ladder; (3) Trump himself is too busy dealing with the RoW, urgently needing a “win”, to even think about Taiwan.

William Lai has also done a great job so far giving Trump no reason to have to deal with Taiwan – a sharp 10% rise in TWD in a matter of weeks, volunteering an annual increase in defense budget, zero tariffs against the US, and so on. He clearly thinks he can play the US card, just ahead of his 5/20 annual inaugural speech, to further advance his Separatist movement.

Hot-Signs of CCP Escalation

In January 2022, a month before Putin pulled the trigger on the Special Military Operation, a “hot-sign” appeared – Russia moved a tremendous amount of blood supplies to the border. The term “Hot-sign” is military jargon that indicates the troops are ready and on stand-by. It usually also implies a point of no return, unless some sort of diplomatic miracle or Hand of God intervenes in last minute.

The latest Taiwan hot-sign has appeared in the cross-strait standoff. The PLA had multiple drills with their latest barges that will be carrying the combined brigades and their equipment when they land. A more detailed look into this matter can be found here. The PLA is undoubtedly ready, as we previously covered multiple times, the Joint Sword series in 2024, and the Strait Thunder-2025A are progressive in nature. There might be a Strait Thunder-2025B around 5/20, but the cold hard truth is The PLA has the ability to turn a drill into real any day from now.

The PLA’s Landing Barge...