ADP Payroll Print Of 206,000 Comes 4 Standard Deviations Higher Than 130,000 Consensus, Above Highest Wall Street Estimate

The global coordinated "feel good" rally is out in full force. First China, next Fed global bail out, and now ADP confirming that massive banker layoffs are actually beneficial, reporting a 206,000 increase in private payrolls in November. This compares to a consensus estimate of 132,000, and is above the highest Wall Street forecast of 200,000. In other words, first we get record volatility in the markets, and now we get record upside volatility in economic data after this number comes 4 standard deviations above consensus! More: "The increase in November was the largest monthly gain since last December and nearly twice the average monthly gain since May when employment decelerated sharply." Of course, this is not to say that America is actually making anything: "Employment in the private, service-providing sector rose 178,000 in November, which is up from an increase of 130,000 in October. Employment in the private, goods-producing sector increased 28,000 in November, while manufacturing employment increased 7,000." Still, surely, the unemployed among the 99% will be delighted to know they were actually working all along.

Charting this ridiculous number:

More from ADP:

Employment on large payrolls—those with 500 or more workers—increased 12,000, and employment on medium payrolls—those with 50 to 499 workers—rose 84,000 in November. Employment on small payrolls—those with up to 49 workers—rose 110,000 that same period, up from the 67,000 jobs created among small businesses last month. Of the 110,000 jobs created by small businesses, 15,000 jobs were created by the goods-producing sector and 95,000 jobs were created by the service-producing sector.


Employment in the construction industry increased 16,000 this month, the most notable gain in employment in this sector since November 2006. Employment in the financial services sector rose 7,000 in November.



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