Art Cashin On Draghi Leaving A Hole In J-Hole

With economies faltering fast; ministers to cajole; and 'promised' plans going pear-shaped by the second; is it any wonder that Mario is not popping across the pond for some R&R at Bernanke's J-Hole. As the ever-avuncular Art Cashin notes, however, Mario Draghi's withdrawl as a speaker at Jackson Hole is logical and was almost inevitable as "you don't go to your best friend's daughter's wedding and upstage him at the event." One other factor that UBS's top-man notes is next week's ECB meeting - Draghi dare not say something that might complicate negotiations within the ECB (whose statement will not be postponeable).

 

Via UBS' Art Cashin,

Draghi Defers – ECB head, Mario Draghi, has withdrawn as a speaker at Jackson Hole. That is logical and almost inevitable.

 

As I told Bob Pisani yesterday in our daily CNBC website interview, Draghi would have been gagged by circumstances and politics. He could not afford to outshine Bernanke.

 

Jackson Hole is primarily a Fed/Bernanke event. As I noted to Becky Quick this morning, you don't go to your best friend's daughter's wedding and upstage him at the event. So that left Draghi in a position to be dry, professorial even purposely boring, lest he steal the spotlight from the host.

 

But, on the other hand, the world has been waiting for weeks to get details behind his assertion that he would "do what is necessary. And it will be enough". A vacuous speech wouldn't do, either.

 

That made Draghi's Jackson Hole position untenable. He dare not steal the spotlight but he could not be bland and vague. So he withdrew. 

 

One other factor is next week's ECB meeting. Draghi dare not say something that might complicate negotiations within the ECB (whose statement will not be postponeable).

 

Despite the clear motivation of Draghi to withdrew and avoid unnecessary complications, markets are looking for conspiracies. On the announcement, the Euro and EU markets spiked a bit. The theory behind that spike is too complicated to explain in this space.

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