Bonds Up, Stocks Up (Just)

Equity markets drifted from an unch open to the overnight post-BoJ highs - albeit in an 8 point range and low volumes once again, before giving it all back in the last few minutes - as it dumped to VWAP (again!!). In other 'real' markets, Treasuries rallied - led by the long-bond playing catch up, the USD sold off on the day - aside from a post-BoJ recovery higher which was dissolved into the US day session open, Gold/Silver/Copper inched higher as the USD weakened but Oil continued its post-QE ritual sacrifice - now down 5.5% from pre-FOMC (back under $92) as the Saudi's promise more supply and the IEA build was heavy. Credit markets underperformed - but we suspect this was pre-roll moves and is not too signal-prone. Some standouts in the unreal world of our efficient equity markets, JCP's remarkable rip-and-dip, AAPL's rapid devolution from record highs to VWAP and an unch close at the last minute on huge volume, and QCOR's multiple-halt day ending down 48%. VIX (fell modestly) and the S&P 500 are back in sync and tracked each other all day. After the day-session close (small green), S&P futures drifted further down and ended practically unchanged - on a heavy volume push.

 

The S&P 500 e-mini futures crossed their entire range in the last 15 minutes after the day-session to close near the lows of the day-session...on heavy volume - we supposed more pre-OPEX, pre-Index-reweighting shenanigans...

 

on a slightly longer-term basis, it seems a 50% retracement of the post-FOMC spike on Friday is acting as resistance for now...

 

Commodities drifted higher (on weaker USD) but Oil just dumped again...

 

Across asset classes, bonds outperformed, stocks seemed to play catch up to gold then reflexively fall back to the USD...

 

VIX and ES are back in sync, with late day weakness evident...

 

Equity markets remain notably out-of-sync to risk-assets in general as today's Treasury strength and oil weakness dragged CONTEXT (our risk proxy) notably lower... (note how they stayed in sync thru the BoJ news but diverged as Europe got going...

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 

Bonus Chart: JCP had quite a day!!! From the discovery of cold fusion to H2 same as H1 sadness...