Charting The History Of Glorious Greek-Bondholder Relations

Today, at one point in the afternoon, CNBC's Michelle Caruso Cabrera "broke" the new that according to the IIF and its always amusing chairman Charles Dallara, Greece is about a month away from a final, conclusive and this time definitive resolution with its creditors. He punctuated the news by saying "progress has been made." Naturally, a minor detail was overlooked, namely whether the haircut would be 50% as per the Second Bailout, First Amendment, or 75% as Germany is rumored to have demanded recently. Also ignored is any update on whether hedge fund Vega is proceeding to sue Greece or anyone else for cramming the fund down in what ISDA defined as a "consensual bankruptcy." But the main reason why we ignored this news completely, is that as the annotated chart below of Greek bond prices show, this is not the first time Dallara has had encouraging "news" to say about the bankruptcy process. In fact, if bondholders had merely sold the first time the Frenchman had opened his mouth, they would have saved about 70% of their money. Frankly at this point it no longer matter. The only catalyst now is March, by when Europe needs to finalize and fund the Greek bailout's €130 billion or else it is game over for the Eurozone.

h/t Andrew Yorks