While details are largely missing in the aftermath of yesterday's historic announcement from Spain, the one thing that we did catch inbetween the various conferences and announcements, and probably the most important thing, is that the ESM/EFSF funded bailout loan, whose use of proceeds will go to fund the FROB, not one which will rank pari passu with the FROB, will have "terms better than market" - always a code word for priming and cramdown of other debt classes. Today, we learn that this is precisely the case, and the worst case outcome from Spain's pre-primed sovereign creditors.
El Pais reports: "European aid (through the EFSF or ESM) are actually loans to recapitalize the financial system, which the Treasury. Again, the State comes to the rescue of the bank. Of course, it is soft loans, in much better shape than the market: around 3%, according to sources familiar with the negotiations between Spain and its European partners. Faced with this 3%, Treasury currently pays interest of 6% over the 10-year debt." And there you have it: Bankruptcy 101, lesson on Equitable Subordination, where one always gets a priming DIP at terms much better than other classes of debt, when secured and guaranteed by unencumbered assets. Such as what is happening here, because for one to accept 3% rate compared to 6% for 10 Year Spanish GUCs, there obviously has to be some security incentive. It also means that, as we suggested yesterday, subordination has come to Spain.
El Pais continues:
In return for subsidized rates, Spain will cede sovereignty over its financial system, but also lose tax sovereignty, contrary to what the Government said yesterday.
So yes, there will be conditions in exchange for priming. As anyone with the most rudimentary understanding of waterfall analysis could have suggested.
More Google translated:
The Economy Minister Luis de Guindos, said flatly that the only conditionality for banks will require assistance . "There will be no fiscal or macroeconomic conditions," he said repeatedly in a crowded press conference, reports Amanda Mars. But he amended the flat Eurogroup: along with the praise for the Spanish efforts to address their varied and acute imbalances, the communique finance ministers of the euro area makes it clear otherwise. Europe monitored with an iron fist that Madrid continue on the path of fiscal consolidation, structural reforms and labor market. "We will look closely and regularly review progress in these areas, in parallel with financial assistance," the statement said.
The biggest problem, as Greece learned, is that once the priming begins, and the various sovereign debt classes start becoming subordinated, it doesn't end, until the PSI. At which point the crammed down debt gets impaired and receives 20-some cents on the dollar recoveries... which is roughly when Grey Wolf will say going long Spain it is the "no-brainer trade" of the year.
Keep a close eye on Spanish sovereign bonds at the moment when the bond market understands what just happened, and once the euphoria over the very short-term bailout of insolvent Spanish banks passes. Because a month from today another €100 billion will be required, then another €100, and so on.
At that point even the officially acknowledged Spanish debt/GDP will surpass 100%.
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Finally, for all to whom any of this comes as a surprise, we once again urge rereading the Zero Hedge January 2012 walk thru for the sovereign default generation: "Subordination 101: A Walk Thru For Sovereign Bond Markets In A Post-Greek Default World", which includes the discussion on UK-law vs local-law bonds, and why in the case of Spain it will be all the difference.