EUR Shorts Flee The Overcrowded Burning Theater In Disorderly, Multiple-File Exodus

Three weeks ago we pointed out that the massive rout in the EUR is approaching its end courtesy of a huge aggregation of net short positions, leading us to conclude it was massively oversold, if only on a short-term technical basis. Since then, continued lack of organization, and a reliance on hope, and lies out of Europe, continues to pummel the EUR, and to bring ever more shorts into a trade that is now ridiculously overcrowded. Sure enough, today, with its 300+ pip move higher in the EURUSD, may be the day when the shorting has finally snapped. As can be seen on the chart below, the divergence between net non-commercial bias in the EUR and the USD has reached historic proportions. And as often happens in markets, this kind of rapid disconnect never works out too well. Expect to see even more compression in the net spread between EUR bearishness and USD bullishness, regardless of newsflow, as the vicious cycle of specs piling on other specs has now been snapped, and the short covering rally has taken on a life of its own, at least until the next mega failure in Europe materializes within a few days.


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