Gold And Silver Trump US Equities In Q3 And Year-To-Date

With the combination of a strong quarter (week or two) for stocks, futures rolls (and CDS yesterday) and the OPEX / index re-weighting it seems we had a modest case of small doors, large crowds into the close today (S&P futures end 1pt above FOMC-day close). Volume picked up dramatically (NYSE highest in a year) as the Dow closed lower on a Friday for the first time in nine weeks! Treasuries outperformed - ending near the low yields of the week (having retraced all the post-QE move - down 10-15bps on the week) but Gold remained relatively bid ($1775) and Oil also rose in the last couple of days. VIX was unch but noisy thanks to OPEX (and remember it's still at a high premium to realized vol - not entirely complacent). Credit underperformed as risk-assets in general led stocks lower.

 

S&P 500 futures tumbled into the close and after-hours to their lowest close of the week (since last Thursday actually!)...

 

On the week Bonds rallied nicely, USD dropped modestly, Gold outperformed, and stocks rolled over into the close ending the week down...

 

Since FOMC, Oil has lost, Silver has won and Copper and Gold have tracked each other sideways to higher... even as USD strengthened...

 

FX markets had a panic-attack this morning as the red rectangle indicates in EURUSD which went full-retard in and around the US open. USD drifted higher all week...

 

On the quarter, Silver was the big winner (up ~26%) followed by Gold (up ~11%) both beating all the major US equity indices (though Europe beat Gold on the quarter)...

 

 

Some serious dispersion in US equity indices on the quarter...

 

Since the start of the year Gold and Silver are the overall winners...

Utes are the Q3 losers and Energy the winners...

 

As we noted earlier, Healthcare has been the post-Fed winner and GS/MS have been big losers - not exactly risk-on!

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

Bonus Chart - VIX risk premium remains high - even though you are going to hear again and again that VIX is low. This does not mean that complacency is not there BUT it does iondicate that traders arfe more nervous than a low abslute VIX would infer. The lower pane is the forward premium over historical realized vol priced into volatility markets (the higher it is the more concerned in the short-term)