Goldman has gone short:
Trade Update: Recommending short position in the S&P 500
We are recommending a short position in the S&P 500 index with a target of 1285 (roughly 5% below current levels) and a stop on a close above 1390. This morning, the Philly Fed print of -16.6, down sequentially and worse than expected, provides further evidence that weakness has extended into June.
Although yesterday's FOMC delivered easing as expected, with a dovish statement, positive risk sentiment ahead of the FOMC had already buoyed markets. And we now think, with incremental US monetary policy on hold, the market will need to confront a deteriorating growth picture near term.
The risk to our recommendation is that the data soon reverts to the 2-percent growth path our economists expect, that China growth turns, or that European policy-makers' rhetoric buoys risk sentiment further from here, with the upcoming end-of-June summit a focal point on this count.
S&P 1500 imminent?
Or maybe Goldman finally gets what we (and Citi... and Deutsche... and SocGen) have been saying for months: there will be a massive policy response, both monetary and fiscal, but first a major crash is needed to jar everyone out of the hypnosis that just because the S&P is over 1350 all is well...