Goldman Raises Tomorrow's NFP Forecast From 175,000 To 200,000

If Goldman's recent predictive track record is any indication, tomorrow's NFP will be a disaster.

Just out from the firm:

BOTTOM LINE: Jobless claims last week at 357,000, in line with consensus. In view of better employment-related indicators this week, we are raising our forecast for the March gain in nonfarm payrolls to +200,000 from +175,000 before.




Initial jobless claims 357k for week of March 31 vs median forecast 355k.


Continuing jobless claims 3,338 for week of March 24 vs median forecast 3,350k.




1. Initial jobless claims eased to 357,000 the week ending March 31, from a revised 363,000 the prior week, a touch worse than consensus expectations. Continuing claims fell to 3,338,000 the week ending March 24, from a revised 3,354,000, a bit better than consensus expectations.


2. Given somewhat better-than-expected news from the employment-related indicators this week--including gains in both of the ISM employment indexes and a sizable increase in online help-wanted job advertising according to the Conference Board--we are raising our forecast for the increase in nonfarm payrolls in March to 200,000 from 175,000 (data released on Friday at 8.30). We continue to expect a slight drop in the unemployment rate to 8.2% from 8.3% and a 0.1% gain in average hourly earnings.