What does over $200 billion in intervention money get you these days? Not much: a half-life of 7 days as it turns out. Following a series of disastrous interventions by the Japanese Central Bank in the past two years, the latest and greatest, aka the Halloween shorts massacre, has now retraced 50% of the move to the USDJPY highs, which appears to be a notable stop loss barrier, and which the Japanese FinMin and central bank will defend at all costs. It would not surprise us if the BOJ were forced to throw far more good money after bad to pretend it has things under control, if the 77.60 barrier is taken out. And after all, all those USD and EUR purchased with the intervention proceeds were a boon to Europe: after all Japan (in the complete absence of China) bought a whopping... €300 million of the latest €3 billion EFSF issue. We expect to see market conventional wisdom to switch from China to Japan as being Europe's secret bailout Santa in a few short minutes.